Thread by @NamasteNiHao

#ModiXisummit
Folks, I don’t have time to write an article, so here’s my two-cents on the upcoming #ModiXisummit (informal) in Wuhan. I’m seeing a lot of brouhaha being played by the Indian media, think-tankies regarding the “reset”, “thaw” in relations.

1)The meeting draws on the similar format of reset and informal meets organised by Xi for Obama in 2013 and the Mar-a-lago summit hosted for Xi by Trump last year. Both have failed to bring any kind of reset. Instead there is a trade war looming between China and USA now

2)no formal/informal talks can belie the deep distrust both India and China have for each other, deeply drilled through history and contemporary strategic realities. The summit, while attempting “reset” after Doklam might at best be talking shop, garden walks and photo-ops

3)The informal summit was perfect platform, without paraphernalia of deadlines, of joint statements, to have frank discussion on thorny issues of Pakistan, CPEC,India’s NSG entry, border incursions& terrorism, India’s trade deficit of $51billion with China. None to be discussed

4)While it may seem that it is India that is interested in “reset” more than China, opp is also true. Trade war with USA, economic slowdown, criticisms of OBOR & India’s refusal to budge on its OBOR stance, talks of a quad targeting China makes them uneasy. Wean India frm USA

5)China is unable to place India yet in its foreign policy configurations. India is seen via the lens of its proximity to the USA& Japanese camp & not via India’s own economic, security strengths. Feeling of threat perception frm India while dismissing her rise

6) I've done my masters thesis on the shifting perceptions of China towards India using the Framing theory and came up with 4 significant frames that characterize China's feelings/perceptions towards India. Will be better able to explain it via an article hopefully soon.

7) Suffice to say at the moment that without discussion on these thorny issues, without the “real” felt need to discuss what China & India mean to each other, such talks hold no water. We have too many urgent issues to discuss- border, Ch's asymmetric warfare, trade deficit etc

8) While I wait for actual news about deliberations that took place after the 2 day summit, I am not waiting for some miracle to happen and some major reset in relations cause in geopolitics, each country fends for itself and its self interests, security interests +pragmatic coop

9) Found this quote by @MohanCRaja to be very apt to this discussion : Delhi should have little reason to bet tht Wuhan will lead to chinks in China’s all-weather partnership with Pakistan. Nor can Beijing expect tht India will hold bak from strengthening its ties with USA & West

10) Leaving you all with a rather frank and forthcoming interview with Shen Dingli , one of the best known foreign affairs analysts in China, . Piece is from the Wire, a portal that I normally distrust, but nevertheless found interview worth sharing
thewire.in/diplomacy/indi…

This is a brilliant essay on the roots of hostility between India& China by @jmohanmalik . Gives a good insight into historical and strategic hostilities, the perceptions that have and continue to affect Sino-Indian relations

thediplomat.com/2017/09/china-…

Good,realistic piece by @sreemoytalukdar on the much touted "reset" in Sino-Indian relations. India must learn to be as pragmatic as their Chinese counterparts are

firstpost.com/india/narendra…

Ok folks, now that the #ModiXisummit summit is under wraps and PM Modi has left for Bharat, time to mull over some key points discussed between the two leaders. Dividing them into the good and the bad, ending with cautionary note (short thread)

The GOOD:#ModiXisummit
1)India and China likely to venture into a joint economic project in Afghanistan- no details have been provided but instead of Afghanistan emerging as another proxy arena fr Sino-Indian strategic competition, cooperation in rebuilding Afghanistan better

The GOOD #ModiXisummit
SOFT POWER:
1) “Collaboration in terms of entertainment including films. Xi Jinping has seen number of Bollywood& regional films and wants more Indian films to come to China and vice-versa"- not a fan of bollywood, but have seen its +ve soft power effects

The GOOD #ModiXisummit
SOFT POWER: 2) India & China agree to promote tourism in Buddhist circuit
-Very gud! When I visited Longmen Buddhist caves(similar to Ajanta), a retired Chinese Party member started to talk to me. He lamented that there is no coop in Buddhism betwn In-Ch

The GOOD #ModiXisummit
More such informal meets to follow. PM Modi has invited Xi Jinping for next meet in Bharat. Suggests 2019 confidence
REALPOLITIK: Narendra Modi government will build a whopping 96 more (ITBP) border outposts (BoPs) along 3,488 km long India-Ch border.

The BAD #ModiXisummit Ch Vice FM Kong Xuanyou: BJ will not stress on India joining China's OBOR- quite bad actually. Ch tried hard to get India's support, India held upper hand. Ch can nw cont to build on PoK, no longer caring fr India's objections-loss of strategic opportunity

The BAD #ModiXisummit :
"the two leaders (Modi & Xi) endorsed work of the special representative to find a fair reasonable & mutual settlement"- i.e no concrete talk on solving one of the longstanding border issues- how to build 21st Asian century with guns traded at each other?

The BAD #ModiXisummit : platitudes on economics, investment and trade- we have $51billion trade deficit with China. China refuses to open its market for India.Even last year heard Foreign Secy Vijay Gokhale addressing complaints of Indian businessmen at Shanghai consulate

CAUTION: " PM Modi and Xi Jinping spoke about terrorism as major problem and committed to take steps to eradicate menace at bilateral& multilateral levels" 1st no mention of Pakistan(expected). Contd

secondly what China classifies as terrorists vastly differs from what other countries normally call as terrorists- they include Dalai Lama as terrorist+ conflate separatism issue of Xinjiang as terrorism. Must read this paper :ifri.org/en/espace-medi…

Overall positive, if not reset in ties, atleast the chill after Doklam has been removed. Can proceed normally but needs enhancement on relations, not just talk shop but above points to be implemented in letter& spirit. India needs to strengthen study, lang, understanding of China

Also going to add that massively disappointed that India has given China a major victory on #OBOR by refusing to part ways and not engage on it anymore. I believe, the #OBOR and #CPEC cards were highly prized ones for India to keep up the bargaining advantage over China😕