Thread by @Usherwood

Let's think about the Brexit impact of Windrush/Rudd:

1/

(to be clear, this isn't the most important aspect of it all, but Rudd's resignation does make for more of a connection)

2/

Let's start w Rudd herself.

Her resignation causes assorted Brexit headaches for May/CONs

3/

Most obviously, the long-mentioned 'Brexit balance' in Cabinet needs attention. May will need to give some thought how to keep this

3/

New Home Sec needs to be senior enough to handle/head off Windrush, but also a soft Brexiter, which might knock out some obvious choices

4/

Could reshuffle ppl around, but that didn't go well last time: is May willing to try moving Hunt along once more, for example?

5/

Rudd's next move also matters, esp if she hangs her hat w Soubry on the backbench. Come 'meaningful vote' time, that might count for a lot

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However, Rudd might keep powder dry, both b/c wants to get back into Cab, & b/c Windrush has tainted anything she now says

7/

Beyond Rudd, all this eats up bandwidth that HMG doesn't really have. Art.50 moving to critical phase, and HMG needs to advance debate on Irish dimension, so reshuffling comes at a bad time

8/

Especially true if May wants to turn the ship on CU/SM. Her capital was already minimal post #GE17, and this affair doens't help at all

9/

My working assumption is that May has only survived b/c no one can be sure who'll replace her, and b/c it's easier to let her own the problems of Brexit. White knight will pop up in Apr 19, to grumble how 'she let us all down'

10/

Windrush potentially shifts this, esp for soft Brexiters, who might see window to push for more liberal approach to immigration and post-EU rels

11/

However this plays out, main upshot is that HMG will continue not to be fully on ball in Art.50, so COM likely to find a continued policy gap

12/

That makes big advances for June #EUCO less likely, which in turn hardens Irish options back to C, which makes May's autumn even more painful

13/

Most of it all (for May) is that Rudd's departure isn't going to sort out anything on Windrush; Qs will continue to be asked of her (and her judgement), both narrowly & generally

14/

Remember this is the 4th Cab minister to go, plus Davis sounds ever less pleased with Robbins' role in Art.50

15/

Back in summer 2016, May seemed to have played a blinder, putting ppl into roles where they had to make good on their #EURef campaigning. Now it looks even more like being too clever

16/

And before I go, let's not forget that Windrush in general hasn't reassured EU27/COM about fate of EU citizens. Expect more on that front in coming weeks.

17/

In sum, it's another awful chapter in May's path through Brexit. Not yet life-threatening, but no good for anyone involved

/end