Sophia Profile picture
May 6, 2018 35 tweets 18 min read
Wow! I am watching @almanarnews discussing the parliamentary elections and they have shown videos in some voting locations of #Hariri men distributing money to voters waiting to vote. #lebanonelections2018
However, preliminary indications are that the candidate challenging #Hariri in his home turf #Saida, Ousama Saad, will be elected.
Polls will close in 4' in #Lebanon, the access to vote has been slow, news anchors are calling on voters to enter voting locations, even if it means they will be packed to earn the right to vote after 7 p.m. local because there will be no extension. #lebanonelections2018
#Lebanon's new electoral map
#Lebanon ministry of interior has received around 3000 complaints about the voting process. One of the main complaints emerging is that in some locations, those responsible for the voting process have been intentionally slowing the vote, lowering participation.
The low voter turnout is a national average, with large disparities between voting circonscriptions going from as low as 30% to 70% voter turnout in some locations. #LebaneseElections2018
The minister of interior is Nouhad Machnouk, not exactly someone you can trust to conduct a smooth and honest election. #lebanonelections2018
#Lebanonelections2018: Amal-Hezbollah candidates have all won. #Hariri candidates in difficulty in #Saida, #Tripoli & even #Beirut. Hariri will be an ideal (weak) PM for a consensus gov, strengthening the presidency, but don't ever send him to #SaudiArabia again.
The Sunni vote is fractured. No surprise here. Mainly thanks to #SaudiArabia. The Christian vote too, but much less. Geagea has profited this time from his endorsement of Aoun for president. Shia emerge united. #lebanonelections2018
Many analysts say nothing will change in the Lebanese political landscape with the new electoral law. I beg to disagree. Today's results show, w/o a doubt, that Hezbollah & the Shia are the first political force in Lebanon. All this happened incrementally. #lebanonelections2018
#Hezbollah's incremental gains in #Lebanon happened over two decades during which many wars, internal and external, have been waged on the party, and with each of theese wars Hezbollah ended up consolidating his position, rather than being weakened.
However, one cannot speak of #Hezbollah's incremental gains without mentioning #Syria. Hezbollah's role in Syria has propulsed the party to another level, defender of the country, as a whole, and major regional player.
#Israel's statements are always threats. This is a country that has been at war, wars of choice, during its whole existence. reuters.com/article/us-leb…
1/ As with #Hamas in #Gaza, when #Israel willingly wasted all chances for peace after Oslo, making Hamas election inevitable, #Hezbollah and its popular support in #Lebanon rose incrementally with each Israeli threat and agression.
2/ When will #Israel learn that the language of peace and respect is the only language Lebanese are willing to hear and understand, not the language of threats?
3/ However, treating #Lebanon like #Gaza and #Hezbollah like #Hamas is a serious error, not because of the fact that unlike Gaza, Lebanon is not occupied, nor besieged, nor dependant on #Israel to survive, but because of Hezbollah's regional prominence.
4/ Many consider #Hezbollah as the creation of #Iran, but this is wrong. The Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) needs Hezbollah as mush as Hezbollah needs it. It is only in the Resistance that IRI has been able to reinvigorate and legitimize both its republic and Islam in general.
5/ In these two posts I explain how the Resistance to #Israel confers regional popular legitimacy to Middle Eastern regimes:
The first is about #Saudi: lespolitiques.blogspot.ca/2013/12/saudi-…
The second is about #Iran: iransview.com/iran-n-deal-fu…
6/ Unless there is a just peace in Palestine and between Israel and the Arab countries that border it, the Levant will stay the playground for those who seek influence either by challenging the Resistance or by supporting it, without ever being able to get rid of it. #Israel
#Nasrallah is pseaking now on the #LebaneseElections2018
#Nasrallah: the results of the parliamentary elections refelect the will of the people to perpetuate the strategic choice to protect #Lebanon from terrorism and preserve the formula of the army, the people and the Resistance.
#Nasrallah: the results show that the support for the Resistance has grown in #Lebanon. #LebaneseElections2018
#Nasrallah: these elections sent a message to those who thought that the Resistance has weakened. #LebaneseElections2018
#Nasrallah: despite sharp disagreements, there is a national pact in #Lebanon, nobody can exclude anyone. If you want security and stability we have to cooperate with one another, renounce sectarian/geographic/divisive narrative, and we must leave room for reconciliation.
#Nasrallah: we want to heal the wounds, calm the people and the political factions, deal with the results realistically, draw lessons and try to address our shortcomings.
#Nasrallah is probably addressing those who espoused some extreme triumphalism.
#Nasrallah: I am following what the Israelis are saying, we cannot afford to be divided and we cannot afford to wait long to form a new government. The general spirit must be the spirit of cooperation.
#Nasrallah: I can assure those worried about Beirut's Arab identity, I assure them that Beirut's identity is the identity of the Resistance.
#Nasrallah: I call on brothers and sisters in Kesrouane (where one Hezbollah candidate was blocked) not to yield to negative sentiments and behaviour.
#Nasrallah: My thanks to all of you, the families of the martyrs who carried their sons' photos to the voting stations, the wounded who went to the voting stations on their wheelchairs. Nasrallah tears up.
#Nasrallah: I would like to point out to the large turnout in Baalbeck. People took chairs over their heads to protect themselves from rain and hailstones.
#Nasrallah: I like to thank all the people who went out to vote and put up with the difficulties of the process. This was their genuine resistance.
#Nasrallah: Special thanks to the head of the central elections machine. We thank everyone and God willing you will enjoy the fruits of this. Now we are in a new phase.
#Nasrallah: The upcoming phase is the phase of taking up responsibility and respecting the peldge. This responsibility is now on the shoulders of parliamentarians. Any other behaviour is an active betrayal.
On the Lebanese elections, excellent thread by @Ali_Kourani:

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