Thread by @ibrahimsaninet

I'm going to start a thread on #PRU14 analysis. Feel free to join in on the conversation.

Let's start with voters themselves, before we jump into results....

Malaysians over 21 = 18,359,670
Registered voters = 14,940,624
#GE14 turnout = 12,299,514 (82.32%)

Even though turnout for 2018GE > 2013GE, the absolute people coming out to vote is the highest in Malaysia's history. This is remarkable because voting day is mid-week.

Until today, SPR/EC do not provide explanation why they made voting day on Wednesday

Now on to the results....

UMNO is the biggest loser. GE13= 88 seats (+9) GE18= 54 (-34)
BN 2nd biggest losre. GE13= 133 seats (-7) GE18= 79 (-54)

Losses on BN is across the board. PBB (-1), PRS (-3), MCA (-6), MIC (-2).... you get the idea

The fact BN lost across the board signals 4 things:
1. It's not just the Najib factor. If it was, UMNO would be hit hardest, but Sabah Sarawak voted no too
2. Racial politics is dead
3. Islamization is thriving (lookat Kltn/Tganu?)
4. Police/Army/Civil Srvce wanted BN out too

And the winners are....
1st place = PPBM. From nothing to 13 MPs overnight
Close 2nd = Amanah. From zero to 11 MPs overnight
Even closer 3rd place is = Warisan. Zero to 8 MPs, also overnight

The podium finish is nano-second difference.

Notable mentions: PKR +17 seats, DAP +4

This type of win signals 4 things:
1. Contesting under 1 flag always does the trick. BN did it for 60 years. Will PH register as 1 flag moving fwd?
2. Mahathir is a factor
3. Najib is a factor
4. Anwar is a factor

Numbers 2,3,4 all has long-winded explanations in their own right

Redelieanation hit PAS the most.

PH supporters were the ones most pissed about EC's delieanation. PAS supporters so quiet about it. Maybe they shouldn't have?

Vote share:
PH = 48%
BN = 34%
PAS = 17%
Inde = 1%

Parliament share:
PH = 54.5%
BN = 35.6%
PAS = 8.1%
Inde = 1.8%

That's it for the time being. Grabbing lunch now. Exciting times for Malaysia's democracy. And an even more exhilarating time as a journalist.

Expect media to be watching the PH government like a hawk. A hawk who has a voice.

Institutional Reform Council (IRC) says SPR / EC is one of the bodies they want to look at. I can understand why, below are 4 reasons why SPR needs an overhaul.
1. No Independence. SPR reports to PM's Department instead of parliament. Funds also from PMD

2. No Jurisdiction. SPR Chairman appointed by PM. Not by Parliament.
3. incompetent. SPR needed over 18 hours to submit written #pru14 #ge14 report to the King.
...and...
4. Bias. Some SPR Returning Officers are political party members.

Another element to look at is the demilitation / deleanation (persempadanan semula):
1. If we split eligible voters with number of parliaments, we get 67,000 (14.9 mil voters divided 222 parl seats)
2. Why some seats <15k voters, other seats >100k voters?

IRC must look into this