Thread by @antoguerrera

Hello all, as this can be a crucial day for the new (populist) #Italy government I am now going to tweet a short thread on it, focusing especially on the (almost ready) M5S-LEGA agenda. At least 70 billions of additional debt are expected. How will Europe react? THREAD 🇮🇹

1. As I have been personally saying since the first election results (see here

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) and despite a broad general skepticism on it in #Italy, a LEGA-M5S government was the only possible, given the circumstances after the vote. So, now we are very close to it.

2. Five Stars Movement (M5S) leader Di Maio and LEGA leader Salvini have been negotiating for days on a coalition contract (like in Germany). There have reportedly agreed on many points (we'll see later). But the big hurdle is: who is going to be the new Prime Minister?
#Italy

3. This is a real "Mister X". There are many names circulating, especially technocratic or with "judiciary" profiles, which is kinda the opposite of a "populist" government like Di Maio and Salvini are supposed to form, but President Mattarella would be more satisfied this way

4. BTW, President Mattarella is reportedly irritated by the fact that Salvini and Di Maio are negotiating on the new PM on their own, whilst according the formal procedure is the President who indicates a potential PM and asks him to form a government
#Italy

5. I have to suspend this thread, I will resume it in a few hours. Thank you for your patience and talk later

6. Here I am again, thanks for your patience. So, who is the Mister X supposed to become the next PM chosen by M5S & LEGA? Several names are circulating, such as professors, jurists, but none of them look realistic at the moment. For sure Salvini doesn't want Di Maio as PM
#Italy

7. Today Di Maio sounded quite optimistic about a future government wit LEGA, Salvini instead showed the "mean face" admitting that the two parties agendas are not so close. Moreover, he invoked a quick start for the new government.
#Italy

8. Today LEGA and M5S asked Pres. Mattarella for more time to form their government. Some analysts today remarked that also their attempt to break the deadlock has failed. I might be wrong, but I don't think so. It is a political role-playing but their aim is the same: a govern.

9. LEGA and M5S are working surely hard to find a shared agenda to govern together. it is not easy, because, despite being both populist parties, there are substantial differences between the two. So they are negotiating on this single issues.
#Italy

10. First of all: taxes. LEGA want a flat tax at 15%, which would be a radical shift in #Italy, as the actual tax burden in the country is often higher than 40% for middle class (now, only for the personal income tax, there are 5 different tax brackets, from 23% to 43%).

11. However, M5S has a really welfare state approach on this aspect. Anyway, according to some reports, the two parties have agreed on two income tax brackets, 15% and 20%, which in any case would be very low, given #Italy's history. But how much would it cost for Italy's budget?

12. Cutting taxes so drastically would cost at least 60 billions euro, which is a colossal sum for Italy budget. But the two parties are confident to reap money enough, like from tax amnesties (this despite M5S always professes honesty and vow to fight corruption)

13. Another critical point is the universal basic income, a very dear matter to M5S but always thwarted by LEGA. However, the two parties have reportedly agreed also on this: LEGA might accept a potentially limitless universal income, but stricter than previously planned by M5S.

14. As @repubblica and @valconte reported today, the two parties have also the same idea on pensions: they want to trash the law approved when Italy was going to go bankrupt in 2012 and make people retire earlier, thanks to the so called 100 (age + years of work) quota.

15. But other issues are thornier between M5S and LEGA, like on immigration and social ones
Despite some hard remarks on immigration by M5S founder Grillo, a large part of M5S voters are not xenophobic and feel uncomfortable governing with Salvini who is really harsh on migration

16. All in all, all the measures that M5S and LEGA are negotiating would cost at least 70 billions to #Italy's budget. This is something unsustainable and EU would never accept it. But Salvini insists that Italy won't follow euro-rules ("EU dictatorship" as he says) in case of

17. Moreover LEGA and M5S are also negotiating the composition of the new government (an early stage for Pres. Mattarella). According to some reports, Di Maio is poised to become the new foreign minister (if the PM goes to a “third figure”) while Home Affairs might go to Salvini

18. This is somehow not so reassuring. In the past Di Maio has already showed his weaknesses on foreign affairs. Once, for instance, he said that Pinochet was a dictator from Venezuela.
repubblica.it/politica/2016/…
#italy

19. More in general, about foreign affairs, several M5S representatives (like many from LEGA) have expressed approval (or admiration) for Putin - and Trump. Some other M5S politician has singled out Venezuela as a good example for #Italy.

20. And what about Salvini who may be a potential home affairs minister? He has often expressed very xenophobic remarks in the past. Here he says: “We need a mass cleansing, street by street, neighborhood by neighborhood, do this the hard way in case of”

21. BREAKING. EU Commission has just stated that any change to #Italy debt, budget and immigration policies is not welcome. This is a clear warning to Salvini and Di Maio. Surely Salvini will backfire soon attacking the “EU dictatorship”

22. This leads me to the relationship of Salvini and Di Maio (and M5S) with European institutions. Like other right-wing populists Le Pen, Farage etc, Salvini has always attacked EU and he always will. If he is involved in a government Europe will surely have a tough nut to crack

23. And I doubt Europe will ever succeed against Salvini, as he has been building up his approval often despising EU institutions. Di Maio has a different story. Recently he has been trying to show his more institutional side on many occasions, being very soft on euro matters.

24. However, M5S position on EU and euro policies has always been very confused. A part of their militants is strongly euro skeptical. Some weeks ago M5S founder Beppe Grillo has called for a referendum on euro (which would be illegal in #Italy, by the way)

25. With regard to M5S-LEGA economic proposals instead, today @FT writes “Rome opens its gates to the modern barbarians”. Economy policies are indeed the thorniest issue even in M5S and LEGA negotiations. And, yes, they are unexperienced and radical
ft.com/content/6348cc…

26. Along with the huge additional debt they are likely to create, what is worrying about M5S and LEGA economic policies is the fact that they are both radical but conflicting. LEGA want a flat tax, M5S have a sharp welfare state approach, like on universal basic income.
#italy

27. What "cocktail" will result from such conflicting economic measures? This is the most important thing in my opinion, especially because both Di Maio and Salvini sound unexperienced or sometimes naive. Economy is the most crucial point of the negotiations and also for #Italy

28. BREAKING. As expected, LEGA leader Salvini backfires to EU Commission warning on debt and new migration policies: "This is another unacceptable interference in #Italy's affairs. Now it's time for legality and security"

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29. However, M5S and LEGA might put their potential contract to the vote of their members, like recently SPD in Germany for the Grand Coalition. So, if this government becomes reality (it is not sure for now, just likely), we will see the details of the LEGA-M5S agenda very soon.

30. Last thing before saying goodbye. Last week a Milan court has lifted a ban on #Berlusconi running for public office after his tax fraud conviction. Will this have an influence on the formation of the next #Italy government?

31. I don't think so. Berlusconi gave way to a LEGA-M5S government a few days before it. Surely Berlusconi is the most unpredictable politician in Italy, but I don't think it will have an impact on the short term. First of all, he will try to get a seat in the Parliament.
#Italy

32. A very last thing. Which kind of majority would M5S and LEGA have in Parliament? Well, as you can see from this @repubblica graph, 30 seats more in the House of Representatives, but only 6 more in the Senate. This will be crucial in case of a LEGA-M5S government.
#Italy

33. We'll talk more in depth about the M5S-LEGA agenda but it is wise to wait for the official version of it - if the negotiations have a positive outcome. Even though a M5S-LEGA government is likely, it is not to take for granted. I hope I was not too boring, thank you.
#Italy