🤓 one thing i've learnt about energy is that you've _got_ to go to the data.

"common knowledge", aka "anecdata", is so very often wrong.

an example: i was recently told that @originenergy's #mortlake gas power station was generating "all the time", as "base load".

it's not!
the chart above shows the last 12 months of output. (HT @dylanjmcconnell)

#mortlake has been running with a capacity factor of 28.9% and it's been 2 months since it even hit 50% power.
most wind farms and some solar farms have a higher capacity factor than #mortlake!

$ORG would need to work it about 3 times harder before you'd call it a 'base load' generator.
here's the 'output-duration curve'.

it shows that, over the past 12 months, 50% of the time #mortlake produced absolutely zero power, and operated above half-power less than 20% of the time.

a handy 'little' peaker — but it's not running "all the time", it's not "base load".
(just to be clear, it was an area resident, not origin, who told me it was operating all the time.)

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More from @simonahac

Sep 29, 2018
🤓 thread: no journalist has asked #ScoMo about the discrepancy between his claim australia will "meet paris at a canter" & the environment department's clear analysis that, with current policy settings, we'll miss it by a country mile.

the dept's chart:
the environment department's report is crystal clear: as of last december we were set to miss our target by between 868-934 MtCO₂e.

(for comparison, our annual emissions are now 560 MtCO₂e.)
…and just yesterday (grand final eve, public holiday in vic, etc.) the department released new numbers showing that we're getting worse.

in @GrogsGamut's excellent chart below, our "paris" target (~435Mt) is as far below the x-axis as our current emissions are above it!
Read 7 tweets
Jun 10, 2018
a short, true story about @alan_john_moran (18 years at @TheIPA) who was offered $100k to prove the accuracy of his work for @MRobertsQLD — but, after much bluster, shied from the challenge. 1/17
in july, @alan_john_moran wrote a report for ex-senator @MRobertsQLD in response to the #finkel report.
39 pages of “scholarship” such as this: 2/17
moran’s report, largely a rehash of his blog, was riddled with errors.
the report was so bad that i prepared this brief critique:
Read 21 tweets
May 29, 2018
i didn’t assume anything about you.

you claimed that you were a critical thinker and understood the science.

i started with the hypothesis that this was true.

you falsified it.
apparently i wasn’t listening? 🤷🏻‍♂️

you agreed, reluctantly, with CO₂ increase.
you blamed increase on cow turds then claimed it was just something you heard…

what then has caused CO₂ to increase 50% over last 250yrs?

(hint: mainly fossil fuels)
oh, since you don’t thread your replies — you should learn how — i thought you were just sending me a ‘???’.

no, no one has ever asked that. happy to get to that, but you’re jumping ahead.

you’re stuck on first base. can you get off it first?

Read 5 tweets
May 1, 2018
you’ve got to understand the context of the decision. SA had a relatively small load shed event on 8/2/17. coming on the back of the blackout on 28/9/16 the media and politicians — esp federal — when beserk.

weatherill had to take decisive action.
the 28/9 event was exascerbafed by the complete failure of the state’s ‘system restart ancillary services’ (SRAS) providers.
the 8/2 event was caused by a lack of reserve when AEMO screwed up their forecasts and gas units failed.
on top of this, and important grid service, called FCAS (frequency control and contingency reserve) was experiencing massive price gouging that was costing tens of millions.

…and then along game elon’s offer. (it went to tender — he won.)
Read 8 tweets
Apr 4, 2018
when @CraigKellyMP says they's almost 600 'HELE' coal power stations under construction totalling around 650,000MW, is he right?

nope. and nope. he's just making it up. #auspol
when @CraigKellyMP says japan is building 40 'HELE' power stations, is he right?

nope. just 5 — so few we can list in 1 tweet: Takehara, Noshiro, Hitachinaka Kyodo, Sumitomo Metals Kashima, Matsuura Kyushu.

they total just 3.5GW, & they haven't finished any in the past 7 years.
when @CraigKellyMP says there're many 💯s of ‘HELE’ stations operating throughout SE asia, is he right?

nope. there’re only 10:

indonesia: Adipala, Banten Serang, Cilacap Sumber, Cirebon, Paiton-3
malaysia: Manjung, Tanjung Bin
thailand: Gheco One
vietnam: Duyen Hai-3, Vinh Tan
Read 7 tweets
Oct 7, 2017
#judithsloan's opinion piece in today's oz is disingenuous, full of errors & can be safely ignored. here's why: 1/
sloan likens RE sector to ponzi schemes, enron, subprime etc.
unlike her examples, 🇦🇺's RE sector operates within laws & ethics. 2/
sloan says "long-suffering" taxpayers shouldn't hold their breath waiting for a return from the @CEFCAus 3/
Read 14 tweets

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