🤓 one thing i've learnt about energy is that you've _got_ to go to the data.
"common knowledge", aka "anecdata", is so very often wrong.
an example: i was recently told that @originenergy's #mortlake gas power station was generating "all the time", as "base load".
it's not!
the chart above shows the last 12 months of output. (HT @dylanjmcconnell)
#mortlake has been running with a capacity factor of 28.9% and it's been 2 months since it even hit 50% power.
most wind farms and some solar farms have a higher capacity factor than #mortlake!
$ORG would need to work it about 3 times harder before you'd call it a 'base load' generator.
here's the 'output-duration curve'.
it shows that, over the past 12 months, 50% of the time #mortlake produced absolutely zero power, and operated above half-power less than 20% of the time.
a handy 'little' peaker — but it's not running "all the time", it's not "base load".
(just to be clear, it was an area resident, not origin, who told me it was operating all the time.)
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🤓 thread: no journalist has asked #ScoMo about the discrepancy between his claim australia will "meet paris at a canter" & the environment department's clear analysis that, with current policy settings, we'll miss it by a country mile.
a short, true story about @alan_john_moran (18 years at @TheIPA) who was offered $100k to prove the accuracy of his work for @MRobertsQLD — but, after much bluster, shied from the challenge. 1/17
in july, @alan_john_moran wrote a report for ex-senator @MRobertsQLD in response to the #finkel report.
39 pages of “scholarship” such as this: 2/17
moran’s report, largely a rehash of his blog, was riddled with errors.
the report was so bad that i prepared this brief critique:
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you’ve got to understand the context of the decision. SA had a relatively small load shed event on 8/2/17. coming on the back of the blackout on 28/9/16 the media and politicians — esp federal — when beserk.
weatherill had to take decisive action.
the 28/9 event was exascerbafed by the complete failure of the state’s ‘system restart ancillary services’ (SRAS) providers.
the 8/2 event was caused by a lack of reserve when AEMO screwed up their forecasts and gas units failed.
on top of this, and important grid service, called FCAS (frequency control and contingency reserve) was experiencing massive price gouging that was costing tens of millions.
…and then along game elon’s offer. (it went to tender — he won.)