🤓 thread: no journalist has asked #ScoMo about the discrepancy between his claim australia will "meet paris at a canter" & the environment department's clear analysis that, with current policy settings, we'll miss it by a country mile.

the dept's chart:
environment.gov.au/climate-change… the environment department's report is crystal clear: as of last december we were set to miss our target by between 868-934 MtCO₂e.

(for comparison, our annual emissions are now 560 MtCO₂e.)

a short, true story about @alan_john_moran (18 years at @TheIPA) who was offered $100k to prove the accuracy of his work for @MRobertsQLD — but, after much bluster, shied from the challenge. 1/17 in july, @alan_john_moran wrote a report for ex-senator @MRobertsQLD in response to the #finkel report.
39 pages of “scholarship” such as this: 2/17

i didn’t assume anything about you.

you claimed that you were a critical thinker and understood the science.

i started with the hypothesis that this was true.

you falsified it. apparently i wasn’t listening? 🤷🏻‍♂️

you agreed, reluctantly, with CO₂ increase.
you blamed increase on cow turds then claimed it was just something you heard…

what then has caused CO₂ to increase 50% over last 250yrs?

(hint: mainly fossil fuels)

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🤓 one thing i've learnt about energy is that you've _got_ to go to the data.

"common knowledge", aka "anecdata", is so very often wrong.

an example: i was recently told that @originenergy's #mortlake gas power station was generating "all the time", as "base load".

it's not! the chart above shows the last 12 months of output. (HT @dylanjmcconnell)

#mortlake has been running with a capacity factor of 28.9% and it's been 2 months since it even hit 50% power.

you’ve got to understand the context of the decision. SA had a relatively small load shed event on 8/2/17. coming on the back of the blackout on 28/9/16 the media and politicians — esp federal — when beserk.

weatherill had to take decisive action. the 28/9 event was exascerbafed by the complete failure of the state’s ‘system restart ancillary services’ (SRAS) providers.
the 8/2 event was caused by a lack of reserve when AEMO screwed up their forecasts and gas units failed.

when @CraigKellyMP says they's almost 600 'HELE' coal power stations under construction totalling around 650,000MW, is he right?

nope. and nope. he's just making it up. #auspol when @CraigKellyMP says japan is building 40 'HELE' power stations, is he right?

nope. just 5 — so few we can list in 1 tweet: Takehara, Noshiro, Hitachinaka Kyodo, Sumitomo Metals Kashima, Matsuura Kyushu.

they total just 3.5GW, & they haven't finished any in the past 7 years.

#judithsloan's opinion piece in today's oz is disingenuous, full of errors & can be safely ignored. here's why: 1/
theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/… sloan likens RE sector to ponzi schemes, enron, subprime etc.
unlike her examples, 🇦🇺's RE sector operates within laws & ethics. 2/

.@Adam_Creighton please, please, please learn about the RET before you write another piece on it. two major errors in your piece: 1/

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1. the LGC price will not be $60 throughout the 2020-2030 period. any expert can explain why in a 10 minute chat. 2/