Thread by @DennisNovy

What trade deal can Britain expect from the US after #Brexit? Ed Balls and Peter Sands cite me in their latest research paper at Harvard @Kennedy_School

Read it here:
bit.ly/2ImhL7K

@edballs @PeterASands @UKandEU @cage_warwick @warwickecon @CEP_LSE

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I know some people call it the special relationship. But that doesn't mean Britain will get a sweetheart deal. Trade policy is not a charity game.

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Of course, the British government really wants a deal. But for the US the matter is less urgent. As with Brexit, Britain will be in a substantially weaker bargaining position. Britain needs the US more than the other way around.

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The US would likely make the UK a take-it-or-leave-it offer. This is how the big countries do it.

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Britain also needs to get realistic about the timeframe. This won't be done quickly. And Britain does not have the institutional capacity and experience to negotiate as well as the other side.

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British and US interests are poorly aligned in many crucial areas. Take financial services, access to government procurement. These are important UK asks. The US is highly unlikely to move much on either.

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Britain would feel a tension between the prevailing EU regulation and moving towards the US model. Think about Technical Barriers to Trade (TBTs) - very important in practice.

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ISDS is another key issue. Difficult to get movement on this, and very hard to convince the public.

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The EU found it tough to get the US moving on most of these issues in the #TTIP negotiations. The UK won't find it any easier and will have to concede more.

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For more details see my evidence submitted to the House of Commons International Trade Committee @CommonsIntTrade

data.parliament.uk/writtenevidenc…

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Upshot: This is not going to be a walk in the park for the UK.

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Ends