I do finance and macro ... with data, at Princeton. Author, House of Debt.
اک نقطے وچ گل مکدی اے
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Sep 18, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Are u interested in reading books that explain important economic ideas for the world around us? Written by some of the best economists and based on solid research? I'd recommend three recent books (in no particular order)
2/ First, "Euro Tragedy" by @AshokaMody . Learn the power of *monetary economics*. How poor monetary design and poor policy response to ensuing problems can create havoc with people's lives. Written with a focus on the creation of Euro and crisis of 2008. amzn.to/2xjKjva
Sep 14, 2018 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Can governments in poor countries facilitate development by supporting certain industries? When does such "industrial policy" make sense? This is an old and contentious question. A lovely new paper by Ernest Liu provides sharp new insights. I will try to explain ..
2/ The starting point is that each industry suffers from a potential "weakness", such as poor access to credit markets (imperfection in econ lingo). Should the government help industries with the biggest weakness? Or the largest industries with most value-added?
Sep 7, 2018 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/ For the sake of the stability of the Government of Pakistan, I have resigned from the Economic Advisory Council, as the Government was facing a lot of adverse pressure regarding my appointment from the Mullahs (Muslim clerics) and their supporters.
2/ Nevertheless, I will always be ready to serve Pakistan as it is the country in which I was raised and which I love a great deal. Serving my country is an inherent part of my faith and will always be my heartfelt desire.
Aug 14, 2018 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
1/ On Pakistan's #IndependenceDay2018 , why is the country still far from economic independence? (e.g. seeking its largest bail out ever this year)
I'll focus on last 5 years as an example ... it will get a bit technical but i'll try to be clear.
2/ Economic growth is almost entirely a function of *domestic* productivity growth. What matters is investment in building your institutions and people.
Instead pak govts have increasingly looked *outside* in what i'd call an attempt at "import-led" growth ... it doesn't work
Jun 19, 2018 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
So why has Pakistan fallen behind others over the last four decades? In my view, the single most important factor is Pakistan’s **eroding state capacity**. 1/n
State capacity is essential for providing the environment that enables individuals, firms and markets to flourish. Pakistan's state has not only retreated, but essentially reneged in providing this capacity. For example, 2/n
Jun 9, 2018 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
As Pakistan heads to the polls, what is the most important issue facing the country? In my view, it is the persistent economic slide over the last forty years. Consider this ... 1/n
In 1980 Pak income per capita was 40% to 60% higher than India, China or Bangladesh. But now Pakistan is the poorest in this group. The average Indian is now 60% richer and the average Chinese a whopping five times richer than their Pakistani counterpart. 2/n
Apr 15, 2018 • 14 tweets • 2 min read
A society’s inability to provide quality education, health insurance and justice to its people perpetuates poverty and lowers economic growth. Some anecdotes I came across in Lahore ... 1/n
A young Christian man is picked up by police who then demand a bribe to release him - his poor family cannot afford to pay, so his brother and cousin sell their kidneys to get him released. 2/n