Even if it is true, as İbrahim Kalın suggests, that the Boeing 747 was a gift with no cost, a few questions remain:

1) What is the quid pro quo?
2) Who will pay maintenance and how much?
3) If we're getting gifts, why another plane and not something that might help the economy? I am reminded of a story that used to go round when we were philosophy undergraduates. A student was asked in an end of year exam, "Can pure altruism exist?"

He simply wrote, "No", walked out and, legend goes, got top marks.

So do Qatari Sheikhs have hearts of gold?

Turkey's New Economic Programme making some pretty brave assumptions about the lira/dollar rate in its projections.

USD/TRY in 2018 assumed at 4.71 (assumes rate at average 5.1 for rest of year which seems ambitious)
2019 at 5.60
2020 at 6.00
2021 at 6.20

It's 6.27 right now. For the 2018 average, I pulled down all daily rates thus far this year. We are currently at 4.55 year-to-date. Modelling that out for the rest of the year, 4.7 seems almost impossible. Even if it simply stays at 6.2-6.3, it will exceed 5.00 for the year.

My problem with Turkey's New Economic Programme is that there was so little "how". We may disagree on the projections but regardless of that a mid-term plan should surely have a roadmap and... er... plans? I note some investors have applauded the more reasonable growth, inflation and unemployment projections. That is, indeed, something to welcome, even if I think they're still wildly optimistic. But it is clear that Turkey is going to feel pain in 2019 and beyond.

So the Minister of Trade in Turkey has come out and said that his Ministry has determined that prices of 1,296 products have been unfairly increased since the lirapocalypse.

There's a lot to unpack in that statement but it is all kinds of wrong. In a free market economy, unless the manufacturer has a monopoly of an essential good or service (which regulations should have stopped from happening), there is choice. Even if the price increase is "unfair" or above and beyond lira depreciation, consumers can just not buy.

Amazon Turkey opened today so I thought I'd have a quick look around. First impressions: some relative bargains but not everything is cheaper, not too many options yet but surely that will grow.

Regardless, Amazon always wins. Local e-tailers will be worried. I have to say, at a time when demand for imports is likely to collapse, price competition will be brutal. If Amazon chooses to, it could dominate (an admittedly shrinking) market.

Man for all seasons: “That airport will be finished and I will fly to Paris without delays whenever I want.”

75 million Turks don’t have passports & will never have enough money to go abroad. These kinds of statements show us that the new elite is just like all previous elites.

https://twitter.com/Hincalu/status/1040954138148982784

Unlike many other projects, I think a new airport was necessary. I just happen to think it is in the wrong place, that workers have not been treated with respect, that Ataturk shouldn’t shut down and that the 29 October date is vainglorious, arbitrary and obviously far too soon.

If I see another AKP person moaning about the interest rate hike, I will scream.

1) Nothing happens in Turkey without the Chief’s permission. Nothing.

2) Without a hike, bank treasuries could have been in serious trouble.

3) It wasn’t us who ran the economy into the ground. The chutzpah of trying to claim the impending (for many already existing) downturn is somehow the fault of the Central Bank is astonishing. Did the CB build all those uncrossed bridges on long term FX guarantees? Did the CB pump growth at all costs?

Many in Turkey believe lira crisis is over and certainly the CB has acted creatively to make the best of very low liquidity (in part created by them).

But endless fiddling with rates (part of the complexity markets hated in the first place) and SWAPs isn't a long term solution. At some point, domestic demand for dollars is going to increase. This is a 100% certainty because there is so much FX denominated debt. That is the only time horizon that matters, not whether USD/TRY goes below 6 before Bayram.

The cost of living in Turkey is going up almost daily. Ekşi Sözlük, a local social media site, has a fascinating thread where people share their experiences (Turkish speakers can visit here: eksisozluk.com/alim-gucunun-d…). Headline inflation may have been declared at 15.8% but for many goods, the increases have been far greater. What you paid 1 TL for yesterday can be 2 TL today. The stories are all small instances of losing purchasing power.

Have you ever been to Istanbul? Did you travel through Atatürk Airport?

You’ll know it’s one of the best in the world.

Turkey is going to destroy it in a few months. The same Turkey that is on the verge of economic collapse.

This is a symptom of a disease called rentierism. The new airport will be absolutely massive but on the other side of the city. Building it has led to the destruction of much of the city’s northern forests.

I’m sure it will be a good airport but, as Cem Toker has argued, is Turkey rich enough right now to afford that luxury.

I’m watching TRT again waiting for the new Turkish Presidential cabinet.

It is remarkably bad TV but that aside, make no mistake - they are describing this as regime change.

And on that note, TRT is accurate for the first time in a while. “The first day of New Turkey”

Turkey now has a Presidential system. One man’s say will disproportionately guide the future of the nation and our collective direction is in his hands. With all due respect to his position and to his mandate, I would like to offer him some advice. Politically, you are now as strong as a man can be in their own country. I imagine that is both exhilarating and scary. You have been at the pinnacle of politics for half your lifetime and most of ours but now you have the key.

So it seems Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu will not quit. This is incredibly infuriating.

The problem is he's so boring, there's no chance he has a secret sex tape. We are watching one of the major embarrassments of Turkish political history.

Yes, the Justice March was great. Yes, helping İYİ to get into the elections was impressive.

But he has lost 9 (nine) elections.

IT IS TIME TO GO!

It would appear that the election will be declared as a victory for the AKP. I am still deeply unsure about those numbers but for now, let's congratulate the apparent victors.

They will be inheriting an economic rubble of their own making. Turkey has gotten worse each and every year that the AKP has been in charge. Some years it may have displayed economic growth but in reality it has diminished. It would now seem that this will continue.

As the Turkish lira slides towards complete absurdity (currently at 4.87, down over 20% this year), the full power of the AKP media machine has swung into action. The problem, they say, is an international attack bent on destroying President Erdoğan. Let’s analyse that. Others have made the argument for why Turkey is in this mess. Growth in the AKP era was based on cheap funding, globally low interest rates and, at first, an attractive narrative about the AKP itself.

This weekend we were in Istanbul for the first time in nearly a year. It was an eye-opening window onto a city that has lost hope, direction and energy. I have never sensed such melancholy before. There were a number of interactions and observations that left me somewhat speechless. The first one was the prices. Turkey might be putting out statistics which suggest 10-12% inflation but that is unbelievably optimistic.