Thread on #DeadChequers ... 1/ It's clear this morning that May is going to be pushed to ask for a Canada-style free trade agreement. She will use DUP and absence of Stormont Assembly to push through hard border. That's all in the Tory DNA... 2/~ The medium term effects of a Canada+ FTA will be to tank the economy and industrial investment flight. The UK will then fall apart, as United Ireland referendum and Scottish independence loom...

May's #SalzburgSNAFU ... never mind she was visibly distressed: so will the UK's auto and aerospace workers be when their plants shutdown in case of the looming No Deal crisis she has inadvertently unleashed.... 1/~ 2/~ The Conservative party has three options: stick with this administration of clowns; ditch May and attempt a Canada-style deal with/without NI backstop; or call an election around a Norway-style deal, facing down the ERG and the UKIP entryists...

Good that Tory party investigating @BorisJohnson Islamophobia. Yesterday I said he still has time to choose: Bannon or liberal conservatism. 1/ I mean it sincerely... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20… 2/ When it comes to antisemitism or Islamophobia or plain racism, I am interested in confronting the arguments and the logic and changing people's minds - not condemning them to a forever exile... Here's why... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…

BBC now reduced to writing Nicolas Witchell-style royal fawning copy about @BorisJohnson compare this with any "analysis" piece ever run on Corbyn Let me rewrite it for you... "Johnson is an unusual politician in being prepared to use racist insults against Muslims" ....

Thread on Sky's Brexit poll. 1/ 27% for No Deal is still the basis for a right-wing revolt if Chequers, Norway or Remain is the outcome... all parties need to use statecraft to prevent emergence of AfD-style movement... news.sky.com/story/public-o… 2/ Sky poll suggests May is toast. Leadership challenge by 6 Sept or Tory conference becomes political carnage...

We're seeing two remarkable implosions of Anglosphere conservatism in real time. 1/ Theresa May just allowed a small group of xenophobic ultra-neoliberals to make her own policy on Brexit illegal. For real. 2/ She's also trying to get Parliament to close down so that the Tory infighting, which looks like a bad edition of the Jeremy Kyle Show, will disappear. The fact is, her government has no more authority and is finished.

In addition to all the #Pride this weekend saw 3x mass events: London anti-Trump; Edinburgh anti-Trump plus around 200k at Durham Miners Gala. The point is now to unite these forces into a movement... 2/ People stuck in political tribes and structures often forget the transformative power of mass demonstrations. These mobilised Labour, Green, Libdems and SNP/Plaid - plus masses of working class people from the North of England...

As U.K. protests Trump today - remember @BorisJohnson leaked comment: "method in his madness" - decoder as follows 1/... 2/ Trump threatened to walk away from NATO. He falsely accused Germany of being controlled by Russia. His ambo ti Berlin is stoking support for far right...

Here's what I looked like last time we won the Word Cup. I'm not sad - once in a lifetime is enough but... ..I am convinced England will win it again in the next 12 years. Why? Because UK is attracting some of the most talented ppl on earth...

Since writing this during the Boris-Davis meltdown, I'm even more convinced it's right. Here's why 1/~
newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20… 2/ Labour must deploy a 3-line whip to vote down any White Paper based the Chequers botch-job. It's nowhere near enough on services and leaves open the no-deal option. newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…

Johnson resigns. Articles forthcoming but snap analysis: 1/ May's 'continue as normal' act in the Commons will last maximum 48 hours. The Chequers deal is dead... 2/ Rumours/reports that May will try to form some kind of national govt with ultra-Remain Labour MPs to deliver the soft Brexit. If so they can kiss goodbye to their careers...

May still asking basically for off-peak membership of the EU gym. Changes? Agrees to abide by club rules and wants more hours. Softer Brexit...will it hold? 1/ 2/ Mansion House approach wasn't ditched because EU said no. It because it would not work. May is responsible for wasting four months with a half-assed plan....

US delivers ultimatum to UK: spend more on defence and maintain global presence. thesun.co.uk/news/6671656/a… Obviously leaked by @GavinWilliamson in battle with Hammond 1/~ 2/~ UK clearly needs to spend more on defence. But to remain a Tier 1 military power it needs to remain a Tier 1 economy. Brexit is gonna tank investment and geopolitical clout - hence US move to France as £1 ally (if Gavin's leak is to be belived)...

British Cabinet prepares for emotion-driven meltdown at Chequers followed by meaningless fudge - otherwise Cabinet splits and government falls. And the result for the British people - zero credibility in Brexit talks 1/~ 2/ Cabinet chaos as Brexit truth-time approaches. The key differences: customs “partnership” vs delusional tech fix to Irish border; align to single market vs aggressive trade competition w EU…

My article on UKIP's fascist turn. newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20… And some follow ups coming 1/ 2/ I don't care about the labelling nuances these online fascists use to describe themselves. I don't care about their 5,000 theoretical ramblings. It's all justification for racial supremacy, islamophobia and the attack on truth...

EUCO 1/ We were told May would start playing hardball over Brexit - she said "lives will be lost" if security co-op breaks down. But... 2/ Her threats had no effect. Because the tyranny of time means UK has no negotiating leverage. Contr meanwhile...

Trump's tweets nixed the G7 deal that was done in this photo. It marks a *stage* in the breakup of a rules-based global order. Analysis1/~ 2/~ first problem: two major players in de facto global order not at table: China + Russia - hence G7 now another battlefield for real power

This critique worth reading. My next book is a massive defence of teleological humanism vs postmodernism! newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20… While @JonCruddas_1 right to say I see networked individual as agent of history I don’t follow Negri or any other anti/post/trans-humanist..

From May 1968 to the miners strike BBC reporting was distorted by recruiting only people loyal to establishment bbc.com/news/stories-4… (..) 2/ Anybody associated with left means anybody in the labour movement *not* associated with the Cold War right. It’s not just the hiring ban;

Porton Down scientists can't identify Novichok as Russian made, or its country of origin... analysis. 1) It doesn't contradict May's 26 March statement but gives its components different weight (see screengrab) Thread.... 2/ They ID'd Novichok; there is a pattern and they have "information indicating" Russia stockpiled a small amount of Novichok for assasination purposes. This third deductive step now becomes more important in pinning attack on Russia.

My take on May's announcement of response to Skripal poisoning: 1/ May right to expel diplomats/spies - but they're not breaking off all bilateral relationships 2/ No mention of closing RT/Sputnik. Crucially...