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Philippe Papin Profile picture
Philippe Papin
@pppapin
Hurricane Specialist at @NWSNHC | Ph.D + M.S. via @UAlbanyDAES & B.S. via @UNCAweather | All kinds of weather 🌤❄️⛈🌪| Thoughts are my own |
Sep 11, 2018 • 9 tweets • 7 min read
1) Let's reason out why the #GFS tracks #Florence NE of the #ECWMF even now 3 days till verification? Look at the upper-level cirrus canopy b/c cloud-radiative feedback is important.

The #GFS has a thicker & more expansive cirrus plume NW of #Florence. What is its significance? 2) The cirrus in a #TCs outer core enables cloud-radiative feedback, w/ lw warming under & lw cooling above clouds.

Warming under clouds enhances convective activity in the outer core, broadening the tangential wind field.

Fig. from Fovell et al. (2016) :journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/AM…