Scott Lincicome Profile picture
@CatoInstitute Senior Fellow, @DukeLaw adjunct, @TheDispatch newsletter-er. Chief Neoliberal Shill 2020. CH❤️RTS. You didn't read the article, did you?
Oct 1, 2018 20 tweets 5 min read
A thread on NAFTA 2.0's Good, Bad & Ugly:
First, a BIG caveat: there's a lot here, & it'll take time to draw definitive technical conclusions (esp given how the agreement is posted…). These are just initial opinions & subject to change as details emerge /1 The Good:
1) as @JimPethokoukis rightly points out (…), this is generally a victory for pro-trade/globalization forces. NAFTA's basic free(r) trade principles (goods & services) remain, & uncertainty is reduced (tho not eliminated, yet). /2
Sep 29, 2018 4 tweets 1 min read
While I was buying grass seed at the hardware store just now, I noticed that YETI now makes a 16oz coffee mug and have never impulse-bought anything faster. It is sweeeet. #DadLife Yesss.
Sep 10, 2018 4 tweets 1 min read
PSA: the entire city of Raleigh appears to be out of portable generators #Florence And at least one Raleigh resident is kicking himself for putting off that generator purchase that he said he'd do this year.
Aug 18, 2018 13 tweets 3 min read
And no mention of the pricetag - in taxes & higher prices - of those job "gains" Newsflash: the Government giving a handful of well-connected companies a tariff-based monopoly in the US market can, believe it or not, increase those companies' output and employment (at least for a while) /2
Jul 25, 2018 9 tweets 2 min read
The EU statement makes clear that the steel/aluminum tariffs remain in force (& no concrete commitments). But the tone is better, and maybe(?) no auto tariffs as long as they keep talking.… Let's unpack this statement, shall we?
Paras 1-3: happytalk
Paras 4-5: an agreement to start talking about a deal for full trade liberalization in "non-auto industrial goods" (ie, no cars, no ag) + reducing barriers in services, chemicals, pharma & soybeans. AKA "TTIP Very Lite"
Jul 7, 2018 6 tweets 2 min read
Great grafs here from @JonahNRO:… Also this one:
May 12, 2018 8 tweets 2 min read
👇THREAD 👇 It really is something: we hear all the time abt how policymakers who supported the elimination of trade restrictions disregarded the impact on Real America (or whatever). But this stuff? Nada. /2
May 10, 2018 4 tweets 2 min read
It's almost as if many Americans' views on trade are loosely held and therefore very susceptible to political rhetoric and media coverage. Or something. Partisan views on trade, FTAs and tariffs are kinda depressing. BUT they're also useful to debunk the conventional wisdom that the American public has become more protectionist (& now demands protectionism from their elected officials)
May 4, 2018 15 tweets 3 min read
So I have just learned that my flight home has been delayed until almost 1a. Time for some trade theory. 1/293 Let's start with the United States' unique and onerous retrospective duty assessment system for antidumping duties & countervailing duties 2/293
May 3, 2018 9 tweets 3 min read
Quick thread:
So in the last few weeks, we've seen the #TNOIIECBAFTATPPAAFPDATW tariff t-shirt up and come to life 1/x Tariffs not only impose immense economic costs... 2/
Apr 4, 2018 12 tweets 3 min read
Ok, a quick lunchtime thread on #NotATradeWar...

Trump is actually right in one small sense: we are NOT in a "trade war" with China or anyone else...yet. First, in sheer numerical terms, the total imports actually subject to new tariffs right now is relatively small: for example, current steel/232 tariffs are on just $29B of $2.3T in 2017 US imports; 2) Chinese tariffs on $3B in US exports are also (so far!) relatively small
Mar 1, 2018 5 tweets 3 min read
US steel production up 5% last yr (90M tons), steady since 2010; profits/stocks up
US already has 160+ special duties on steel imports
Most imports come from US allies (China = 11th)
DoD needs only 3% of US production
Consumer co workers outnumber steelworkers 45:1
#TariffTantrum US producers still have over 70% of the US market (also steady)
Global tariffs opposed by Mattis, Mnuchin, Tillerson, Cohn & Congress
US trading partners have already vowed retaliation
Natsec tariffs will imperil the global trading system
Feb 22, 2018 23 tweets 8 min read
The Trade Chapter of the 2018 Economic Report of the President (pp 219-278:…) is a stunning rebuke of... the President and his trade team.

Here's a sample of the *many* 2018ERP quotes that correct/contradict past Trump admin statements on trade (w gifs!): "the economy has shifted again...away from manufacturing and toward service provision industries....the rise in the services share of the U.S. economy has been driven by greater demand for the high-skilled labor that is associated with the country’s rising income per capita"