Trevor Bedford Profile picture
Scientist @fredhutch, studying viruses, evolution and immunity. Collection of #COVID19 threads here:
Amy at ThreadReaderApp Profile picture Mark Nathans Profile picture 3 subscribed
Dec 4, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read
The US is reporting over 2000 deaths per day from Dec 1 and I believe will do so consistently throughout December based on daily case loads above 120k starting early November. 1/4
A drop in reporting over Thanksgiving weekend has made for some difficulty in directly comparing 7-day averaged deaths, but the trend is clear. Red bars are daily reported deaths from @COVID19Tracking and black line is 7-day sliding average. 2/4
Nov 11, 2020 8 tweets 3 min read
After posting about sharply rising #COVID19 cases Friday, there were multiple replies to the effect of "but deaths aren't going up". As should be obvious to most at this point, (reported) deaths lag (reported) cases. This thread investigates. 1/8
There is a lag between when a case is diagnosed and when the individual may succumb to their disease and there is a further lag between date of death and when the death is reported. 2/8
Nov 7, 2020 10 tweets 4 min read
I know that everyone has been (justifiably) distracted by other things, but the #COVID19 epidemic in the US is looking pretty dire with 125,552 confirmed cases reported Friday by @COVID19Tracking. 1/10
Please consider this somewhat of a follow up to the thread two weeks ago on circulation patterns across states. 2/10
Apr 22, 2020 9 tweets 4 min read
I wanted to respond to news of #COVID19 death in Santa Clara County on Feb 6. This is an interesting, if slightly puzzling, data point. 1/9 We know that there is very little genetic diversity in global samples of SARS-CoV-2, which points to emergence in ~Nov 2019 in Wuhan, China. We know that once community spread is established it ramps quickly in the absence of social distancing. 2/9