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I want to share a few obvious thoughts on the #KavanaughConfirmation - we need to use the right Bayesian priors to think this through: 1) false accusations of rape occur between 2-10% of the time en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_acc…
2) 63% of sexual assaults are not reported to police nsvrc.org/sites/default/…
3) multiple, unrelated accusations should cause you to radically update your priors
