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1) Let's reason out why the #GFS tracks #Florence NE of the #ECWMF even now 3 days till verification? Look at the upper-level cirrus canopy b/c cloud-radiative feedback is important.
The #GFS has a thicker & more expansive cirrus plume NW of #Florence. What is its significance?
The #GFS has a thicker & more expansive cirrus plume NW of #Florence. What is its significance?
2) The cirrus in a #TCs outer core enables cloud-radiative feedback, w/ lw warming under & lw cooling above clouds.
Warming under clouds enhances convective activity in the outer core, broadening the tangential wind field.
Fig. from Fovell et al. (2016) :journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/AM…
Warming under clouds enhances convective activity in the outer core, broadening the tangential wind field.
Fig. from Fovell et al. (2016) :journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/AM…
3) What happens when you broaden the tangential wind field? You induce stronger "beta drift" which draws the TC further north & west due to advection of planetary vorticity around the TC field.
See Fiorino & Elseberry (1989):journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.117…
See Fiorino & Elseberry (1989):journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.117…
