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What are #Erdogan’s strategic choices, if loses elections (which he won’t unless opposition includes #HDP support):
1) Resign peacefully & wait for opposition to implode (it certainly will)
2) Declare “national [milli] democracy” to stay indefinitely, citing external enemies +
1) Resign peacefully & wait for opposition to implode (it certainly will)
2) Declare “national [milli] democracy” to stay indefinitely, citing external enemies +
+ If #Erdogan loses and chooses to resign peacefully, he’ll be at an advantage in the long run. Opposition seems united at the moment (a generous assessment), but coalition members will lose their heads if they win & turn against each other instantly. So... +
+ So, even if Erdogan loses, coalition members won’t be able to keep it together, simply because they come from very different positions, & given nuances of the election system, each will claim victory belongs to them. PLUS: economy is tanking, they’ll have to deal with the mess+
