Thread by @dondekojo

Challenge Accepted. I have decided to Fact Check this thread full of outright lies, half truth and data misrepresentation. I will make 2013/2014 my base year for most of the comparative analysis so that we can know where we are coming from.

"Issa Thread" #DemocracyDay

External Tweet loading...
If nothing shows, it may have been deleted
by @adebanqie view original on Twitter

Claim 1- Nigeria's GDP growth rate is back up after the recession of 2016-17. It's important to note that it is yet to get back to about 3% growth we had just before hand over with lower oil prices then (than we do today). Fail. 2014 Growth rate. Source: CBN.

Claim 2 -The @MBuhari Administration’s priority Sectors of Agriculture and Solid Minerals maintained consistent growth throughout the recession.

FALSE. This is the chart for Agriculture GDP during the recession Source: NBS.

#DemocracyDay #Economy #WhatHasBuhariDone

Claim 3- Inflation has fallen for the from 18.7% in January 2017 to 12.5% as of April 2018.

12.5% is still short of the 6-9% CBN target that was the inflation figure before handover in 2015. Here's the inflation chart for Buhari's tenure. NBS. Fail.

Mr @AdeBanqie intentionally ommited food inflation that is still over 14%. People cannot afford food! We had single digit food inflation figures before hand over. Fail. Source:NBS #WhatHasBuhariDone

Claim 4- We have beaten the External reserves horse several times. It's not an achievement, we are borrowing at record high yield and it's already been borrowed against, not something Government van spend Recommended read : guardian.ng/business-servi…

Claim 5- Nigeria's Total exports in 2017 were 59.47% higher than the exports for 2016.
Why compare with 2016 why not 2014/15 before handover. We are exporting less now. This is the Export Chart since Hand Over. Fail (NBS)

#DemocracyDay #Economy #WhatHasBuhariDone

Claim 6 - In 2017, Agriculture exports GREW 180.7% above the value in 2016. Raw material exports GREW 154.2% above the value in 2016. Solid minerals exports GREW 565% above the value in 2016.
FALSE!

Even with 2016 as base year! All Values below 2014-2015 too. NBS.

Little wonder. Balance of Trade 2014- date

Claim 7-"503% increase in Capital importation". But where are we coming from. This is the chart for capital importation from 2011-2017. Source: NBS.

Claim 9- The NSE did have a very good 2017. Better than 2015 and 2016. But where were we coming from?

Claim 10 and 11 Nigeria's Tax Revenue increased to N1.17 Trillion in Q1 2018. Where are we coming from?

Claim 12 -N2.7 Trillion has been spent on Infrastructure in 2016 and 2017 fiscal years, an unprecedented allocation in History. Buhari said something similar , but my oga @lloydatiku already did justice to it here.

External Tweet loading...
If nothing shows, it may have been deleted
by @lloydatiku view original on Twitter

Additional link. budgetoffice.gov.ng/index.php/reso…

Brb

Claim 13- (14) moribund Blending Plants have been revitalized so far under the Presidential Fertilizer Initiative (PFI); with a total capacity of 2.3m MT of NPK fertilizer.
What plants? Name them.

NPK Production in the last year figures were released.

Claim 14 The contribution of Solid Minerals’ to the Federation Account rose five-fold from N700 million in 2015 to N3.5 billion in 2017.
FALSE.

Solid Minerals paid 2.085bn into the Federation account in 2015 according to the Ministry.

#DemocracyDay #Economy #WhatHasBuhariDone

Still on claim 14- this is Minning contribution to GDP. Using 2014 as base year. It's worse. Fayemi's 3.5bn claim in a political press conference(Where he announced Guber bid) is yet to be confirmed elsewhere

The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), the Federal Government’s medium-term Economic Plan, was launched by @MBuhari in April 2017.

This is what the(2nd) richest man in the world thinks about the ERGP Tough choice between Mr Banqie and Bill
premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines…

Claim 16- The just-concluded Phase 1 of the ERGP Focus Labs identified private-sector projects worth about US$22.5 billion – and with a potential for 500,000 jobs (in Agriculture, Transportation, Manufacturing and Processing,) – for unlocking by 2020.

Baseless Propaganda.

Still on Claim 16. How's the identification of potential jobs(by 2022) an achievement when unemployment, youth unemployment and Agriculture Employment is worse?

Unemployed Persons and Unemployment rate Chart since Buhari came on board. #WhatDidBuhariDo

Claim 17- repeated from previous claim.. The CBN I&E window is a good CBN policy and it's surprising that the anti market folks are praising a window where there's a currency float. I couldn't confirm the $45bn figure anywhere including the CBN website. punchng.com/impact-of-the-…

Claim 18. The @MBuhari Administration has implemented a new Debt Management Strategy which targets a ratio of 60% to 40% between Domestic and External Debt.

The Plan is to take more foreign debt to refinance domestic debt. But this debt service to revenue with 2014 as base year.

This. From the folks @budgit

External Tweet loading...
If nothing shows, it may have been deleted
by @budgitng view original on Twitter

This is the cost of servicing debts.

Since we expect to make the $ to settle external debts mostly through exports, here's external debt to exports %. Using 2014 as base year.

Yet we are taking on more external debt #WhatDidBuharido

Old thread on our unsustainable debt structure

External Tweet loading...
If nothing shows, it may have been deleted
by @dondekojo view original on Twitter

Claim 19- The RMB-Naira swap deal is a decent agreement, but not the silver bullet they ate selling. Last year Nigerian Companies as big as P&G were paying Chinese buissinesses in Bitcoin. We shouldn't forget that the RMB is also pegged on the $. 3rd currency fluctuations...

Claim 20. Nigerians abroad sent about $21bn back home in 2015 and FG decided they want some of that cash. The Diaspora bond came at a yield of 5.625% and I don't really understand why $300m for a 5 year bond at that high yield is an achievement. Budget deficit -record $23bn.

Claim 21. Once again we are celebrating more debt with higher yield than ever. The yield was 6.5 percent for the shorter notes and 7.625 percent for the 30-year portion. Botswana, Senegal, Kenya etc got lower yields. Some countries are getting - rates while we celebrate

More on Claim 21. We issued a $500 million 5-year bond at a yield of 5.375 percent and a $500 million 10-year bond with a yield of 6.625 percent in 2013 to no fanfare. mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id…

I'm jumping to Claim 25! The CBN Anchor Borrower's program. This particular one deserves it's own different thread because the story of the failure is a long one. It's mind blowing that anyone can call this an achievement. Thread

in a nationwide broadcast to mark the country’s 57th independence anniversary described the programme as a success. It wasn't. Terrible failure.

Anchor Borrower's Program- The FG and CBN set out 54bn to loan farmers without any enlightenment enlightenment campaign to intimate farmers that the loans were repayable. The farmers thought it was a reward for Voting Buhari in 2015.

In Kano, the total sum of N950million loan was released by the CBN to Kano State rice farmers, only N6million has been paid back till date. Kano decided to set up Mobile Courts to prosecute over 4,500 defaulting farmers. leadership.ng/2017/12/24/kan…

In Kano? Out of 5, 540 farmers that collected the loan during the wet season, only about 50 of them have so far repaid it. This is the reason the loan was not given for the dry season farming.

The Anchor Borrower's program could not survive the rain. CBN, magistrate judges, Ganduje, Clerics and traditional chiefs had to weigh in and gave the farmers a December 2017 deadline. Till date, no payment. The farmers insist they were repaid for campaign.

The loans were given out in September 16' to rice farmers and since almost all of them defaulted, it affected the grants that were supposed to go out to wheat and tomato farmers.

It gets interesting here, when the rice farmers association were looking for guarantors, Dangote declined, so the state Government stood in for them, now the CBN is threatening to remove the money directly from the state's allocations.

The state decided to hire a task force with Police, Judges and Islamic clerics to force their money out. This takes us to Kebbi.

In Kebbi, Back in May 2017, some of the 5, 968 defaulters were apprehended in Bagudo Local Council and sentenced to different prison terms by a mobile magistrate’s court presided over by Mukthar Tarifiki. More like CNN Jail for Loans program

The court worked hand in glove with the recovery team led by the state Deputy Governor, Col. Samaila Dabai (rtd.), sentenced the defaulters at its sitting in the council area. The sentencing was on the fifth visit to the council by the recovery team. Some are still in Jail.

The task force moved to Suru Local Government that had over 11k defaulters, the district head Alhaji Muhammadu Bello was able to negotiate a grace period for people in his own community after the mobile courts had sentenced them. Till date... No show.

In Kaduna, the farmers signed MOUs with Off takers to remit their produce after the wet season, Farmers absconded with harvest instead. The Governor had to attach divisional Policemen to Off takers (Olam and Flour mills) to force the loan recovery. Yet, only 15-22% performance

When the Policemen couldn't force farmers to submit their harvest, Kaduna also decided set up mobile courts. The big off takers are yet to get the products, at least they have police men to beat farmers up.

OF the N2billion disbursed to benefitting farmers in Delta State, only N100million has been repaid. Farmers allege that the loan process was tedious, State officials got bribes and people simply diverted it to other ventures.

In some states, they couldn't even access it. Forget default now.

In Adamawa, the real farmers couldn't even access the fund. They gave it to political sympathizers instead. Good Guardian story on it. guardian.ng/saturday-magaz…

The Anchor Borrower's program that Mr Banqie is touting as an achievement ended up being a bonanza for farmers to marry new wives (as the VP hinted later) and you get repaid for 2015 in anticipation for 2019. Colossal failure.

Claim 25- In a bid to GROW what we EAT, the Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP) of the CBN has made available N82billion in funding.

FALSE. It was 55bn to 220k farmers and not 82bn to 350k farmers. Also, No "borrowing" happened punchng.com/anchor-borrowe…

Still on Claim 25. The program did not increase yield or harvest as hardly any planting happened, the rice farms were left fallow after collecting loans and different people claimed same lands to access the loan. Wait for @nicholasibekwe 's exclusive on this.

Claim 26.-The Anchor Borrowers Programme has substantially raised local production of rice; yields have doubled from 2-3 tonnes per hectare in areas; Nigeria’s paddy production has doubled compared to 2014 levels.

FALSE. This is Nigeria Paddy Production. Source indexmundi.

Index Mundi is the most reliable source for paddy production Stat for years and states 2014 figures are higher. No agency is yet to report higher/double figures and I dare @AdeBanqie to show us his source on this. FALSE