OK, some context on #Spain: last week, a court found that the ruling #PP had been using irregular funds for years. The Socialist party (#PSOE) launched a motion of non confidence, which is being discussed today in Parliament (opens thread)
Initially,nobody in #Europe cared much:after all, this was to be the second time #Rajoy was questioned by the Parliament (last year, on an initiative by #Podemos) and Socialist leader #Sanchez (who is not an MP, as he lost his seat last year) did not seem to have too much support
Mainly because he needs 176 votes, which he can only get if MOST regional parties (including heavily pro-indy forces in #Catalonia and #basquecountry) support him, as #Ciudadanos has said they would not support the motion, because they want new elections.
Sanchez refused to clarify when would these elections happen, choosing instead to bet on a caretaker socialist government with a very specific program (which, btw, has not very much to do with corruption). This made him less popular among his potential allies.
The main issue for the #Basque nationalist party (moderate, christian democrat) was the budget, which was approved some days ago and included very good conditions for the #basquecountry. But today #Sanchez pledged to respect the approved budget, winning the Basques over.
So, unlike anything (even) weird (er) happens, #MarianoRajoy will need to leave: either he resigns or he is ousted. If he resigns, we will have an acting #PP government while the Socialist build a proper one. Which will be tough, as then promises will need to get real.
If he doesn't,we will have a care-taker government which has promised to call elections soon(but when?).A government which,in my humble opinion,will be able to do nothing,as it will need the support of the #Catalonian nationalists who will insist on having their pbs solved first.
So here we are. The whole thing is a gamble, from all parties involved. Who knows what will happen? I. for one, do not. (Closes thread)

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More from @CaminoMortera

Sep 12, 2018
OK, now I stop the jokes and get serious on #SOTEU and #JHA (opens thread). @JunckerEU: "We are proposing to extend the tasks of the newly established European Public Prosecutor’s Office to include the fight against #terrorist offences."
I'm still sceptic about the original role of the #EPPO (financial offences to #EU money) and how that is going to pan out in the future (more on this soon, part of the @CER_EU's upcoming work on #JHA). I'm even more sceptic about proposals to use it for #AML. But terrorism?
This has been an old aspiration of federalists and others: some sort of a central EU criminal prosecutor (and criminal code, for what matters) to deal with cross-border crime. But that is absolutely unfeasible right now. See the latest difficulties in judicial co-operation.
Read 5 tweets
May 25, 2018
Today, @CER_EU publishes my piece on #Brexit and #JHA. I have been looking at this for 1,5 years so I hope I did not make too many mistakes (links to piece - cer.eu/publications/a… and opens thread)
At the outset of the #Brexit process, most people assumed that a deal on #police and #judicial co-operation was easier to get than one on #trade. Time has shown this is not the case. Ongoing co-op on #JHA is one of the few items yet to be agreed on #withdrawal deal. Why?
Well, because the #EU and #UK's opening positions in the #negotiation are incompatible: Britain wants a #bespoke agreement with the EU, a la #Schengen, but is not willing to accept #ECJ or #EUCharter. EU wants to replicate existing models. What to do?
Read 10 tweets

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