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Jasmin Mujanović Profile picture
@JasminMuj
Jun 28, 2018 • 7 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Another major arms acquisition by politically controlled police in #Bosnia, months ahead of Oct elxns. HDZ controlled police in the Livno canton (aka Canton 10) appear to have acquired nearly 1000 "automatic rifles". Follows similar moves by Dodik govt. inforadar.ba/inforadar-sazn…
Police in the nearby the Herzegovina-Neretva canton, also controlled by the HDZ, announced in March they were likewise procuring $200,000 of new arms. Weeks later, they caused a near shooting incident w state police. reuters.com/article/us-eur…
So, the HDZ & SNSD have each made major arms acquisitions in last few months, both have direct ties to the Kremlin & both have explicitly threatened violence unless the Oct elxns go their way. Myself & other colleagues have warned of this for months, publicly & privately:
The Oct 2018 elxns in #BiH will not be free nor fair. There is growing likelihood of overt sabotage, fraud & manipulation, including thru the use of force, by the three entrenched nationalist blocs but in particular @Dragan_Covic's HDZ & Dodik's @SNSDDodik.
Officials in @OHR_BiH, @eubih, @euforbih, @USEmbassySJJ & other key stakeholders have been privy to this information for some time. It remains an open Q what, if any, contingency plans they have made. UK has made a small show of force but more is needed. thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-to-…
Specifically, EU & international officials need to make clear to Covic, Dodik & Izetbegovic that the consequences of any manipulation of the 2018 elxns will be swift & severe. Targeted sanctions, like those of US Treausry on the Dodik, at minimum.
Some of you have seen me go on about this several times now but that's bc conditions on the ground continue to deteriorate w/ little to no European or international response. I stress once more: BiH is key to regional peace & security. As goes BiH, so go the Balkans. /xxx

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More from @JasminMuj

Jasmin Mujanović Profile picture
Oct 6, 2018
The post-liberal world (dis)order is coming into view; brinkmanship & adventurism, deterioration of political & diplomatic norms, democratic backsliding & rise of strongmen, extremist mainstreaming, trade wars, rise in pol violence (assassinations, street violence, xenophobia).
The liberal order -- in so much as it can be thought of as one coherent entity -- was rife w hypocrisy and contradictions. But it was premised on the idea of a singular set of norms & institutions for all polities, in theory if (usually) not in practice.
Even at its height, it was a system that failed millions, if not billions, of people around the world; ignoring or outright denying their rights and claims to genuine experiences w democracy, rule of law, human rights etc. My family fled Bosnia bc of one such failed episode.
Read 7 tweets
Jasmin Mujanović Profile picture
Oct 2, 2018
Here's, perversely, the problem w investigative journalism in midst democratic backsliding: POTUS implicated in nearly half billion dollar tax fraud scheme. Scandalous revelation w likely zero institutional response. Result: deepening crisis of legitimacy. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Which, of course, is not to suggest media should not be doing investigative journalism. It's imperative. But true revelation here is not in Trump's corruption, it's in the corruption of the institutions that have allowed -- and continue to allow his ilk -- to dodge consequences.
The point being, this should give you insight into how authoritarian & illiberal regimes have an almost self-sustaining quality. The more illegitimacy is exposed, the more faith ppl lose in the system as a whole, in the process losing will to resist the very cause of the rot.
Read 4 tweets
Jasmin Mujanović Profile picture
Sep 9, 2018
First Sunday of BiH’s 2018 elxn campaign. Some projection/analysis/questions re: the world’s most complex constitutional regime w notoriously shoddy local polling data. 1/n
Some big Qs:

- Komsic & Covic have never directly faced off. Can Komsic still muster large % of reformist Bosnian Croats (vs Covic’s Herz. base) + reformist Bosniaks to defeat HDZ’s iron grip on (shrinking) conservative/nationalist Croat electorate?
- Relatedly, who will win the reformist/anti-nationalist vote in the BiH presidency? Komsic (Croat) or Becirovic (Bosniak)? Difficult to see both winning, while dual defeat is a distinct, even likely possibility?
Read 12 tweets
Jasmin Mujanović Profile picture
Sep 5, 2018
Assume for a sec that the US is in the midst of a constitutional crisis (it is). Notice how the stores are still open, your bus completed its usual route & the game still on? That’s what makes genuine crises terrifying, bc they (co)exist for so long within our normal exp of life.
They continue to do so all up until the point that they don’t. When the news is no longer something you can turn off, when it’s on your street, at your kid’s school, in your community, it’s too late for “resistance”. Then it’s largely a matter of individual survival.
That’s why both scholars of authoritarianism/sectarianism and/or survivors of such regimes have implored you to organize & inform yourself now, when it is/was still “normal”, when it’s still “someone else’s” child, when it’s a Q of archaic rules of order.
Read 6 tweets
Jasmin Mujanović Profile picture
Aug 27, 2018
Over the last 2 weeks virtually the entire EU political class & the US have abandoned 25 yrs of policy in the Balkans vs ethnic partition. Only GER has explicitly rejected the KOS/SRB swap. It's difficult to overstate how destructive these last few days have been to the region.
To turn on a dime the way both EU & US have done on this, arguably, the most fundamental issue in the region's post-YU history is astounding. Now, there is simply no longer a nationalist-chauvinist fantasy too radical, too extremist, too fevered for local elites not to attempt.
Even if nothing comes of this proposed swap, which is (incredibly!) actually not a forgone conclusion, the takeaway for local extremists is simple: wait them out. Wait out the "internationals" bc they don't care & know nothing. Just keep pushing, piling on, turning up the heat.
Read 8 tweets
Jasmin Mujanović Profile picture
Aug 25, 2018
Dodik govt continues to deepen ties w Russian extremists, fully backed by the Kremlin. Headlines say "writer" but this is a documented militant: "Apart from being involved in the [UKR] war, Prilepin also took part in the conflict in Chechnya in the 1990s." balkaninsight.com/en/article/bos…
Also, as a number of folks have pointed out, Bosnia has had enough of "Russian writers" of this sort. Importantly, both Limonov & Prilepin are part of the far-right National Bolshevik Party. BiH authorities 100% correct to ban entry for to Prilepin.
And from the files of "but the EU continues to be the No. 1 investor in BiH", Russia is now selling police helicopters to Dodik govt at 30-40% discount. One Agusta-119 already procured in June, three more on the way. Militarization of RS police continues. balkans.aljazeera.net/vijesti/rs-kup…
Read 4 tweets

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