Political Scientist. SE European & Global Affairs. “Hunger & Fury: The Crisis of Democracy in the Balkans” via @HurstPublishers & OUP. Co-Host @SarajevoCalling.
Oct 6, 2018 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The post-liberal world (dis)order is coming into view; brinkmanship & adventurism, deterioration of political & diplomatic norms, democratic backsliding & rise of strongmen, extremist mainstreaming, trade wars, rise in pol violence (assassinations, street violence, xenophobia).
The liberal order -- in so much as it can be thought of as one coherent entity -- was rife w hypocrisy and contradictions. But it was premised on the idea of a singular set of norms & institutions for all polities, in theory if (usually) not in practice.
Oct 2, 2018 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Here's, perversely, the problem w investigative journalism in midst democratic backsliding: POTUS implicated in nearly half billion dollar tax fraud scheme. Scandalous revelation w likely zero institutional response. Result: deepening crisis of legitimacy. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Which, of course, is not to suggest media should not be doing investigative journalism. It's imperative. But true revelation here is not in Trump's corruption, it's in the corruption of the institutions that have allowed -- and continue to allow his ilk -- to dodge consequences.
Sep 9, 2018 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
First Sunday of BiH’s 2018 elxn campaign. Some projection/analysis/questions re: the world’s most complex constitutional regime w notoriously shoddy local polling data. 1/n
Some big Qs:
- Komsic & Covic have never directly faced off. Can Komsic still muster large % of reformist Bosnian Croats (vs Covic’s Herz. base) + reformist Bosniaks to defeat HDZ’s iron grip on (shrinking) conservative/nationalist Croat electorate?
Sep 5, 2018 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Assume for a sec that the US is in the midst of a constitutional crisis (it is). Notice how the stores are still open, your bus completed its usual route & the game still on? That’s what makes genuine crises terrifying, bc they (co)exist for so long within our normal exp of life.
They continue to do so all up until the point that they don’t. When the news is no longer something you can turn off, when it’s on your street, at your kid’s school, in your community, it’s too late for “resistance”. Then it’s largely a matter of individual survival.
Aug 27, 2018 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Over the last 2 weeks virtually the entire EU political class & the US have abandoned 25 yrs of policy in the Balkans vs ethnic partition. Only GER has explicitly rejected the KOS/SRB swap. It's difficult to overstate how destructive these last few days have been to the region.
To turn on a dime the way both EU & US have done on this, arguably, the most fundamental issue in the region's post-YU history is astounding. Now, there is simply no longer a nationalist-chauvinist fantasy too radical, too extremist, too fevered for local elites not to attempt.
Aug 25, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Dodik govt continues to deepen ties w Russian extremists, fully backed by the Kremlin. Headlines say "writer" but this is a documented militant: "Apart from being involved in the [UKR] war, Prilepin also took part in the conflict in Chechnya in the 1990s." balkaninsight.com/en/article/bos…
Also, as a number of folks have pointed out, Bosnia has had enough of "Russian writers" of this sort. Importantly, both Limonov & Prilepin are part of the far-right National Bolshevik Party. BiH authorities 100% correct to ban entry for to Prilepin.
Aug 24, 2018 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
So, re: all this “land swap” talk btw Serbia & Kosovo, let’s spend a few moments deconstructing the magical thinking informing the Kosovo govt’s rush to accept this poison apple of a deal from Serbia.
First off, the premise here is not a territory swap as such, it’s territory for recognition. Namely, that Belgrade will finally recognize Kosovo as an independent state in exchange for Kosovo giving up the north, possibly receiving some southern municipalities from SRB.
Aug 23, 2018 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Four yers after he was documented to be leading a "volunteer" troop fighting on the side of Russian occupation forces in Ukraine, ultra-nationalist Bratislav Živković has finally been arrested by Serbian police.
It is unclear why it took Serbian police four years to arrest Živković, given that he was interviewed in occupied Ukraine by virtually ever major international news outlet in the world. dw.com/en/serbian-mer…
Aug 22, 2018 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
Unbelievable. This is the same station, Prva TV, that aired the Greater Serbia map only days ago, which so many tried to rationalize. A terrifying disinformation campaign; a completely fabricated claim about the creation of a supposed pan-Muslim territory in the Balkans.
And before the usual suspects scream “context!?”, here’s the link to the segment, starting around the 17 min mark. Apparently this is all part of a neo-Ottoman ploy, orchestrated by Turkey, and will invoke also the Bulgarian Pomaks. This is Milosevic 2.0. prva.rs/web-tv/info/ve…
Aug 22, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Fight btw councilors in predominantly Albanian Presevo municipality in southern Serbia viz local dumping ordinances. Presevo is supposedly part of partition talk w Kosovo. If garbage is causing fist fights, how will partition go w/o violence?! kossev.info/presevo-pesnic…
Or hey, remember when the govt in Prishtina tried to merely demarcate Kosovo's border w Montenegro? That resulted in opp leaders releasing tear gas inside of the assembly on multiple occasions. Again, tell me how partition happens w/o violence?! cnn.com/2018/03/21/eur…
Aug 22, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Paris always had an incredibly problematic posture twds the Balkans. But it’s US’ shifting commitments that are making Vucic’s adventurism plausible. And another reason why Brexit is such a debacle for the Balkans. The UK was a key ally & proponent of credible policy. Now gone.
Also, and the risk of stating the obvious: this is really their proposal. Vucic is visiting Kosovo, Thaci is on board, they’ve recruited key civil society voices, the EU is silent sans GER & the US has apparently reversed it’s long standing policy vs. partition.
Aug 21, 2018 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The "if" is not whether the US is presently in midst of a constitutional crisis. It is. The "if" is whether now proven criminality associated w POTUS' elxn dents his support w the GOP & their electorate. If it does not, a constitutional crisis is the least of your concern.
I've argued for some time that the real danger for the US as a constitutional republic will not be when it is proven the president & his team committed multiple crimes, of various degrees of severity, or even when it is confirmed they sabotaged the elxn in direct co-op w RUS.
Aug 12, 2018 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
As primary architect of #Bosnia's present dysfunction, Dodik knows no peaceful dissolution possible. This rhetoric is prep for eventual violence. He'll claim all "peaceful" options exhausted. Why he's now militarizing police, recruiting RUS paramilitaries. ba.n1info.com/a278799/Englis…
After all, someone who believes peaceful dissolution is possible would not be rapidly militarizing local police, coordinating w Russian & Serbian security services, attempting to acquire heavy weapons/armor & everything else reported in this @FPRI brief. fpri.org/article/2018/0…
Aug 10, 2018 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
"Bakir, BiH as a unitary state is over". That's Serbia's Foreign Minister shockingly i. referring to BiH Pres. Izetbegovic by name ii. falsely suggesting there is a push to make BiH a "unitary" state iii. directly interfering in BiH constitutional debates. klix.ba/vijesti/regija…
I have been extremely candid about my antipathy for Izetbegovic & the SDA (see below) but how the Vucic govt is currently conducting itself viz. BiH & Kosovo is beyond belief. They are off the chain & it's literally getting worse by the day. balkaninsight.com/en/article/the…
Aug 10, 2018 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I've been warning for months @SNSDDodik regime in Bosnia will try to sabotage Oct elxns. Dodik now peddling "secret plan" he's discovered about how RS opp, "Sarajevo" & internationals will "cancel" polls in Banja Luka. Rhetoric meant to invoke fear, chaos. vijesti.ba/clanak/416386/…
Or more to the point: if Dodik can convince his supporters that the polls are already "fixed" by this elaborate conspiracy of local traitors & foreign saboteurs, then when his own party overtly violates the integrity of the elxns they'll claim to be upholding the rule of law.
Aug 9, 2018 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
One of the most frequent arguments that advocates of partition advance & that naturally put them in league w local chauvinists is that a particular polity is somehow “fake” or “invented” or the result of some non-indigenous processes. 1/
You hear this about states like Iraq & Syria these days, how their borders are the result of imperial cartography but it’s long been a trope in the Balkans about BiH, Kosovo, & Macedonia in particular. (@DenisonBe & I wrote a bit about it re: MENA.) 2/ washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…
Aug 8, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
#Serbia’s govt continues its alarming (re)turn Milosevic era: Foreign Minister Dacic claims BiH’s RS entity should have declared independence when Kosovo did. A direct attack on Dayton Accords, BiH territorial integrity & sovereignty. Where is the EU? US? ba.n1info.com/a278083/Svijet…
Recall, this is happening in context of Belgrade’s surging push to partition Kosovo which I have claimed all along is primarily a bid to legitimize their pretensions on Bosnia. And Dacic, the ex-Milosevic lieutenant, keeps confirming just that. And still radio silence from EU/US.
Aug 7, 2018 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Important documents that support the alarm bells some colleagues and I were raising a few days ago, but earlier also, about the growing linkages b/t the Serb ultra-nationalist camp in Bosnia & their fellow travelers in Serbia. A recent thread:
Above txt by @dfriedman33 provides crucial data to flesh out this emerging axis which, as I told @cjcmichel for @thinkprogress, is not only a shocking assault on BiH's peace & security but also a direct betrayal of the US' authorship of the Dayton Accords. thinkprogress.org/these-trump-ca…
Aug 6, 2018 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
There's a lot of "well, look the liberal international order wasn't all peaches and cream" talk right now. Sure. But by the same token this dispute illustrates your actually existing options (+/-): Canada or Saudi Arabia. The Trump WH claims they're equal. They're not.
And just to be clear: yes, the US' other NATO allies are taking note that, beyond Trump's anti-NATO rhetoric and his anti-EU & anti-Canada tariffs, he is actively siding with a non-NATO state in significant diplomatic dispute. Ottawa will remember, so will the EU.
Aug 3, 2018 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
We have been warning US & EU policymakers for better part of 3 yrs, going on 4, that the political climate in BiH is rapidly deteriorating & that this process is being increasingly sponsored by foreign reactionaries. We never expected ex-WH officials to aid & abet tho. Shocking.
Bannon, recently high-ranking official in Trump campaign & WH, is now hinting at his role in assaulting already fragile Dayton Peace Accords in BiH, on a station which serves as the primary mouthpiece of the Russian backed, secessionist, genocide denying Dodik govt.
Jul 28, 2018 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
These days in Sarajevo, or really anywhere in the Balkans, all anyone talks about are the increasing rates of emigration. These societies are simply disappearing. It’s no longer merely the young, it’s established professionals in their 40s and 50s. “Fajront” for a whole region.
Ironically, it’s opened up a few jobs for the few young professionals willing to stick it out. But I’ve yet to talk to a person in the city who is not either seriously considering, or has not already actually filed paperwork for Germany, Sweden, Canada etc.
