Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Bosnia
Most recents (10)
As primary architect of #Bosnia's present dysfunction, Dodik knows no peaceful dissolution possible. This rhetoric is prep for eventual violence. He'll claim all "peaceful" options exhausted. Why he's now militarizing police, recruiting RUS paramilitaries. ba.n1info.com/a278799/Englis…
After all, someone who believes peaceful dissolution is possible would not be rapidly militarizing local police, coordinating w Russian & Serbian security services, attempting to acquire heavy weapons/armor & everything else reported in this @FPRI brief. fpri.org/article/2018/0…
This rhetoric is not new, Dodik has claimed for yrs that BiH is a "failed state", while looting its public coffers to keep his private fief, the RS, afloat. As the poorest region in Europe, the RS has no viable prospects outside BiH. But this is a political not economic project.
Another high-profile meeting btw Serb ultra-nationalists & Trump admin. This time genocide-denying PM of #Bosnia’s RS entity, w close links to RUS. US Amb in Sarajevo has refused to meet head of her govt, Dodik, for yrs. But not the Trump team apparently. avaz.ba/vijesti/bih/39…
And as @cjcmichel reported a few weeks ago, Corey Lewandowsky appears to be the central node in connecting members of both the Dodik regime & the Vucic govt in Serbia w Trump WH. Extremely worrying for the entire region. thinkprogress.org/these-trump-ca…
A few more reminders of what kind of regime the Trump admin is apparently taking meetings w now. The Dodik govt in BiH is not merely sympathetic to RUS, they’re counting on Kremlin backing for the conflicts they hope to start. theguardian.com/world/2018/jan…
So, just another reminder that as of yesterday we have documents showing clearly that #Croatia's HDZ intends to directly interfere in the Bosnian elxns to elect @Dragan_Covic & is so doing w support from Russia. zurnal.info/novost/21262/h…
When it was finally "revealed" that Russia & Serbia spent yrs meddling in Macedonian politics it was kind of a big deal. Happening in front of our noses in #Bosnia & it's basically being shrugged off. Good thing BiH is only like 10x more volatile than MK. occrp.org/en/spooksandsp…
Well-respected observers & academics in region have been writing about HDZ/Russia link for the better part of two yrs for such obscure outlets as Radio Free Europe. We now have docs & credible accounts of meetings w FSB proxies. Where's the alarm?! slobodnaevropa.org/a/hdz-bih-dodi…
Bosnian media claim former FSB director Nikolai Pattushev met w HDZ officials from #Croatia & #Bosnia in Trogir resort to coordinate strategies for interfering in BiH elxns, ensuring @Dragan_Covic’s victory & solidifying RUS influence in both states. zurnal.info/novost/21260/p…
If @zurnal_info has the docs & sources to back this up, it’d be the clearest link yet between the hard-right of the HDZ in #Bosnia & #Croatia & the Kremlin. Their on RUS in BiH reporting so far has been excellent, recall this scoop: theguardian.com/world/2018/feb…
I note also that this story meshes very closely w the approach Russia took in #Montenegro in the 2016 coup attempt, as detailed in this thorough report by @ReufBajrovic, @VeskoGarcevic & R. Kraemer for @FPRI.
Relations btw opp & govt in #Bosnia's RS entity continue to deteriorate. Following continued obstruction by @SNSDDodik of the investigation into the death of David Dragicevic. Opp claims govt's actions have "dissolved the assembly". vijesti.ba/clanak/412087/…
This matters bc there's a high likelihood Oct elxns in RS, especially, will be roiled by fraud. Both opp & govt are preparing ground for extra-parliamentary confrontations. Dodik has militarized the police, hired Russian paramilitaries, the opp is relying on mass mobilization.
This is also why Dodik has begun to explicitly (and falsely) accuse the British govt of interfering in BiH's elxns. He's has to rig the elxns to win but when/if he's caught he needs an excuse, so he'll blame opp of being "foreign stooges". voanews.com/a/britain-warn…
This deserves much more attention. #Russia’s attempted 2016 coup in #Montenegro was far more serious & sophisticated than previously understood. @CrisLeeMaza summarizes here the key findings of new report by @ReufBajrovic, @VeskoGarcevic & Richard Kraemer. newsweek.com/exclusive-russ…
Reason why this is such a major story is bc @ReufBajrovic & @suljagicemir1, in this report from March, warn of *upcoming* Russian inference in the Bosnian elxns. BiH is far more vulnerable & volatile than Montenegro was in 2016. Are EU, US, NATO prepared? fpri.org/article/2018/0…
Some of us have been warning about Russia’s very serious meddling in Bosnia for yrs now. I warned explicitly *last Sept* that we were headed for Kremlin-backed trouble in Oct of this yr. Too little has been done by the international community to prepare. foreignaffairs.com/articles/bosni…
Another major arms acquisition by politically controlled police in #Bosnia, months ahead of Oct elxns. HDZ controlled police in the Livno canton (aka Canton 10) appear to have acquired nearly 1000 "automatic rifles". Follows similar moves by Dodik govt. inforadar.ba/inforadar-sazn…
Police in the nearby the Herzegovina-Neretva canton, also controlled by the HDZ, announced in March they were likewise procuring $200,000 of new arms. Weeks later, they caused a near shooting incident w state police. reuters.com/article/us-eur…
So, the HDZ & SNSD have each made major arms acquisitions in last few months, both have direct ties to the Kremlin & both have explicitly threatened violence unless the Oct elxns go their way. Myself & other colleagues have warned of this for months, publicly & privately:
So, Putin’s paramilitary “biker gang” the Night Wolves is not only organizing film screenings in #Bosnia’s RS, which are attended by high ranking figures in #Dodik’s govt, but there’s now also a local chapter of said gang. Ominous development for BiH. ba.n1info.com/a268931/Vijest…
Recall, this organized crime syndicate just “toured” the region like a boy band, only weeks after news broke that Russia was training & equipping a still different far-right group based out of Serbia, one that was also assisting the Dodik regime. rferl.org/a/night-wolves…
This was @julianborger’s report from January on that group, “Serb(ian) Honor”. So, we now have at least two distinct Russian-backed paramilitaries cooperating w the Dodik regime ahead of #Bosnia’s Oct elxns. Extremely alarming. theguardian.com/world/2018/jan…
This is, to put it mildly, irresponsible reporting by NYT. To treat presence of RUS paramilitaries in #Bosnia, a country in which less than 25 yrs ago 100K were killed by such militants, as a joke is despicable. No one is giggling in BiH -- or #Ukraine. nytimes.com/2018/03/31/wor…
I wrote this for WaPo in Nov. bc I was disturbed by the way US press had begun to normalize far-right extremists domestically, as they had done in the Balkans a quarter century earlier. Infuriating to see them "return to form" in the region. washingtonpost.com/news/democracy…
As @_edinh notes, recall only last time US media told you a reactionary mvmt & their avatar was a joke, who had no chance of upending the world order. And that was in the US, w its centuries-old democratic republic. Bosnia does not have that stability.
