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Important Thread that describes why Southern Front (and other areas) seem to fall quickly into #SyrianArmy hands once military operations get underway. The answer lies in the painstaking secret negotiations/reconciliations that Damascus has long invested in ==>
2-Take #Daraa where key members of Syrian leadership decided to invest significant time & resources traveling back and forth to the region in the hope of reaching out to opposition leaders. This process linked into higher gear early in 2015 & when Damascus knew #Geneva would fail
3-As negotiations/reconciliations seemed to proceed, however, Damascus soon discovered a pattern. Leaders who engaged in such talks soon lost financial & military support of their sponsors. Those countries quickly found new leaders willing to sabotage the seemingly agreed deals
4-Damascus realized that it had to alter its strategy to accommodate for the fact that these leaders don’t want to lose their funding & arms supplies to others. Decision was made to allow those it was engaging with to continue to receive both the money & arms. But there was more
5-Damascus would not only allow opp leaders to continue to receive money and arms but would refrain from bombing their areas and even allow food/trade/individuals to go back and forth into state areas. This dramatically raised the standing of those opp leaders engaging w Damascus
6-So why did Barzeh, Qabboun & now Daraa fall quickly into Govt hands once military ops started? Because opp leaders offer assurances of resistance to help secure last minute funding & arms shipments from their sponsors while largely know timing/plans of approaching #SyrianArmy
7-Once Idlib was lost and the Geneva process faltered, #Syrian leadership put in place this long term strategy that seems to deliver every time a large battle gets underway. Years of painstaking work suddenly seem to deliver devastatingly fast military results at every key battle
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