EHSANI2 Profile picture
Jul 6, 2018 7 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Important Thread that describes why Southern Front (and other areas) seem to fall quickly into #SyrianArmy hands once military operations get underway. The answer lies in the painstaking secret negotiations/reconciliations that Damascus has long invested in ==>
2-Take #Daraa where key members of Syrian leadership decided to invest significant time & resources traveling back and forth to the region in the hope of reaching out to opposition leaders. This process linked into higher gear early in 2015 & when Damascus knew #Geneva would fail
3-As negotiations/reconciliations seemed to proceed, however, Damascus soon discovered a pattern. Leaders who engaged in such talks soon lost financial & military support of their sponsors. Those countries quickly found new leaders willing to sabotage the seemingly agreed deals
4-Damascus realized that it had to alter its strategy to accommodate for the fact that these leaders don’t want to lose their funding & arms supplies to others. Decision was made to allow those it was engaging with to continue to receive both the money & arms. But there was more
5-Damascus would not only allow opp leaders to continue to receive money and arms but would refrain from bombing their areas and even allow food/trade/individuals to go back and forth into state areas. This dramatically raised the standing of those opp leaders engaging w Damascus
6-So why did Barzeh, Qabboun & now Daraa fall quickly into Govt hands once military ops started? Because opp leaders offer assurances of resistance to help secure last minute funding & arms shipments from their sponsors while largely know timing/plans of approaching #SyrianArmy
7-Once Idlib was lost and the Geneva process faltered, #Syrian leadership put in place this long term strategy that seems to deliver every time a large battle gets underway. Years of painstaking work suddenly seem to deliver devastatingly fast military results at every key battle

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More from @EHSANI22

Sep 18, 2018
Thread on status of Syrian Opposition post the "demilitarized zone" agreement in #Idlib . Thus far, most commentary has regarded the deal as a win for the Opp since risk of imminent strike on the province has been avoided. But is this deal really a positive for opp? Answer: No=>
2-Let's step back first. This is an Opp that was formed with goal of toppling the State (diplomatic language of Geneva process called it political transition). Nothing short of above was acceptable to this opp. As of yesterday, mere avoidance of strikes is now seen as a win
3-Let's not also forget that from early days of Geneva's political transition talks, the only political activity left now is an attempt to establish constitutional committee. All else has been shelved. Now that we established the general status of the opp, let's discuss this deal
Read 7 tweets
Sep 17, 2018
Thread listing Preliminary observations on the announcement of the “Demilitarized Zone” in #Idlib today: What does it mean for Turkey, Russia, Damascus and the armed groups? What is the likely risk/reward calculus for each party? What should we expect going forward? ===>
2– Let’s recap what we seem to know first: A zone 9-12 miles long would be established by Oct. 15. It would contain no heavy weapons or extreme elements of the insurgency (al-Qaeda-linked militants). It would be be patrolled by Turkish and Russian forces
3-First critical point to note is whether this deal will end up securing the highway that passes through Idlib and links the north and south of the country under Govt control together. This was of course one of the strategic aims of Damascus from any #Idlib operation
Read 12 tweets
Sep 17, 2018
For the record, while everyone seems to believe that the number of civilians in #Idlib is close to 3 million, a Damascus source who has been very prescient in the past believes that the actual number may not exceed 1 million.
2-To suggest that 3 Million civilians live in #Idlib is to suggest:

A-That pre-war housing stock & other infrastructure was able to accommodate double the pre-war population

B-Moreover, safe to assume both housing & infrastructure now nowhere near pre-war conditions/capacity
3-In effect, for #Idlib to host 3 Million now compared to 1.2-1.5 pre-war is to assume either a building boom (not war) or construction of massive camps that would host such massive numbers. Yet to see credible images of such camps or investments in the housing stock
Read 6 tweets
Sep 11, 2018
Erdogan in an op-ed in @WSJ :

“Moderate rebels played a key role in Turkey’s fight against terrorists in Northern #Syria; their assistance and guidance will be crucial in Idlib as well”
2-Erdogan: “Preventing the assault on #Idlib need not set back counter-terrorism efforts. Turkey has succeeded in fighting terrorist groups, including ISIS and the PKK, without harming or displacing civilians”

Notice how he doesn’t include Nusra /al-Qaeda in above group
3- Erdogan: “Turkey’s ability to maintain order in Northern #Syria is proof that a responsible approach to counter-terrorism can win hearts and minds”
Read 7 tweets
Sep 9, 2018
In order to truly understand the dynamic inside the #Syrian Armed Opposition, one must start to look into the ever closer marriage between the the Moslem Brotherhood and Nusra / al-Qaeda. Both have been joined at the hip through the sponsorship & support of #Qatar #Turkey ==>
2-Moslem Brotherhood (MB) lost its original military wing during the battle with the Syrian State in the 80’s. Best to think of Nusra/HTS/al-Qaeda in #Syria today as the new military wing of the M Brotherhood. One is the brain, the other represents arms & legs of the same body
3-The coordination between MB & Nusra/HTS/al-Qaeda has afforded the latter the chance to transform itself from non-state actor that had been hiding in the mountains of Afghanistan to an outfit with clear lines of communications to regional capitals that are supporting the MB
Read 16 tweets
Sep 7, 2018
1-Set below is a short thread summarizing some of exchange w this Tajik Muhajir (Foreign Fighter)

Q: How did you come to Bilad al-Sham [Syria]?
A: I heard the Muslims in al-Sham were oppressed. I made hijra [migration] to help them.

SO ALAWIS (THE OPPRESSORS?) ARE NOT MUSLIMS?
Q: All the factions in Syria are oppressors?
A: God knows best. They love money.
Q: So you thought there were jihad and defending Islam, but it's not like that on the ground?
A: Yes. Most of them declare takfir on whoever they like.

PERFECT WINDOW INTO THE FUTURE, THANK YOU
Q: Currently you are not with any faction?
A: No. They are all liars. They say what they do not do.
Q: There are people who say that jihad must continue in Syria. What do you say to these people?
A: If there are no honest factions. With whom [do you wage] jihad?

LIARS? NO WAY
Read 4 tweets

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