Raman Ghavami Profile picture
Aug 3, 2018 16 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
THREAD on #IranUpdate and possibilities. The Third Current movement[a new movement formed by young leaders with different backgrounds]asked Iranians to start cross country protests. People responded positively and protests kicked off on 31st of July. 1/16
It appears for the first time one group has influence inside Iran to guide people and current protests are very different than last ones in DEC-JAN. However, only central parts of Iran have joined the anti regime protests. Kurds, Azaris,Ahwazi Arabs&Balouchis have not joined.2/16
Last DEC-JAN it was the Kurdish cities of Kermanshah, KhorramAbad, followed by Azari-Kurdish city of Hamedan and Ahwaz which shocked many. After aforementioned cities went on the streets the protests reached more than 98 cities in less than 11 days. 3/16
That's why Security forces showed excessive use of violence as the regime was scared and knew that if minorities don't stop then the situation could end up badly for Tehran. This time however, protests have started from central Fars populated (major cities) in #Iran. 4/16
Mashahd, Esfahan, Karaj and Shiraz are the first four largest cities in Iran after Tehran. Security forces have not shown the same brutality as they did in DEC-JAN as in the first week of the protests 26 protesters were killed and more than 56 were wounded. 5/16
The Iranian regime knows that if they try to oppress the protesters the way they did in DEC-JAN things could go horribly wrong.Therefore,the regime's trying to end the protests without using much force.Iran still tries to show that Iranian regime is a Fars centralised regime.6/16
By giving this img Iranian officials may think they can keep nationalists on their side(delusion).However,due to current situation in Iran,the majority couldn't care less about blackmails such as 'if you start protesting we'll be like Syria'/'the plan is to help separatists.'7/16
Young generation believe/see their future is at risk with the current regime in power. They have their future to lose. The Iranian regime is trying to stop current protests before they could reach other cities and regions. 8/16
Protests are spreading slowly but all the cities come on the streets everyday which wasn't the case back in DEC-JAN. Karaj is known as second Tehran and plays an important role in holding the ground for protests to continue. 9/16
More importantly slogans are much more political than DEC-JAN in central Iran. Slogans target the entire establishment rather than economic demands. We hear people only mostly chant "death to Khamenei, death to Rouhani, death to the IRGC, the regime must be overthrown." 10/16
If protests keep going for a week or so then more cities will join and controlling the situation for the regime could become impossible. Some Azari cities are preparing to join on Saturday but it is not clear yet. 11/16
Minorities have many questions before they start taking part in the protests. But one of the most important questions is how will regime forces react, considering the level of brutality used by them back in DEC-JAN. 12/16
The effort by two groups inside Iran is to make sure current major cities hold their ground, continue to protest and make sure north and neighbouring provinces such as Kerman, Yazd, Semnan, south Khorasan, Golestan, Mazandaran and Gilan also join.13/16
Social media[especially Telegram]is the main source for ppl inside Iran to organise themselves&source of news.However,this time the regime can't stop protests[like back in DEC-JAN]by simply cutting off the internet but Opposition groups need to unite. 14/16
There is a movement now guides and leads the protests(The Third Current Movement) which wasn't the case in DEC-JAN. Monarchists and those who want a secular republic can also unite with this group which I believe it is unlikely to happen. 15/16
I tweeted this thread last night but I had to delete it for some reasons.
Tomorrow is an important day for current anti establishment protests. 16/16

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More from @Raman_Ghavami

Sep 30, 2018
A few minutes ago in Kurdish city of Kermashan(Kermanshah) IRGC fired a few missiles to an unknown destination. Two of the missiles crashed near the city a few second after they were fired.
At least 8 missiles were fired.
The missiles were fired from IRGC's base in Kermanshah called Shohada headquarters.
The moment when one of the missile exploded and a few minutes later crashed.
The IRGC has not published any statement.
Read 22 tweets
Sep 29, 2018
Following Iranian media outlets, the @iaeaorg and international community should investigate @netanyahu's claim regarding Iran's secret atomic facility.
It is highly likely that the evidence provided by Netanyahu is reliable. 1/9
This was the video published by an Iranian website. It is interesting why these three men are asking people to not visit the location. In this video they repeatedly ask people to not try to visit the place because there is nothing. But they fail to show inside the building. 2/9
Iranian state TV reporter went to the location. The reporter refused to ask to go inside and show inside the building.
In the report, a man in a red T-shirt[was introduced as an ordinary citizen]makes fun of Netanyahu.Him and another person claim the place is an old depot.3/9
Read 9 tweets
Sep 23, 2018
Who was behind #AhvazAttack?
Another contradictory statement from spokesperson for armed forces:"Attackers didn't have military uniforms on them."But reports&footages published by Iranian media contradict him .
Ahwazi Movement rejects responsibility&claims IRGC was behind it.
IS has published a video claiming its forces've conducted #AhvazAttack.ISIS claims the video was sent to them.Those speaking mention neither ISIS nor Ahvaz.Some claim an Ahwazi group might have cooperated with IS which can't be true cause none of Ahwazi groups focus is religion.
Surprisingly Iranian media publish a photo of the third attacker [who was 'killed' by the Iranian security forces]just hours after ISIS publishes its video. Prior to the video published by Iranians, only photos of two killed attackers had been published by Iranian media.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 22, 2018
Be very careful about what you read about #AhvazAttack.
There are many fake news, unconfirmed reports, fabricated photos and photos taken for propaganda use.
For example @bbcpersian journalist @BahmanKalbasi claims a group has taken responsibility when it is not true.1/8
.@guardian journalist @SaeedKD mislead public opinion by writing 'children' were killed by 'terrorists'. And when you read his piece you only see there was one child and not children. But what the headline of the article suggests is very different to its context.2/8
Director of Iran project at @CrisisGroup, @AliVaez jumps in to protect Iranian regime and asks US officials to condemn the attack. However, he has never asked US officials before to condemn Iranian regime for arresting, raping, torturing and executing political prisoners.3/8
Read 9 tweets
Sep 22, 2018
Patriotic Arab Democratic Movemen in Ahwaz many times warned IRI to stop discrimination,arrests&executions of Ahvazi Arabs. In response to IRI discrimination policies,Arab Struggle Movement attacked IRI forces,killed 9[including a high ranking general]&wounded 40.
The attack on military parade targeted officials and generals who were watching the parade. No civilian casualties and the attack only targeted the location of officials and armed forces. 11 of IRI forces and officials have been killed and 60 wounded.
IRGC's Tasnim published a report&claimed only armed forces were targeted. But the report has been removed.Iranian official media claim civilians were also targeted.However, according to footages&reports only a few families of officials were at the parade.
Read 26 tweets
Sep 12, 2018
Kurdish opposition parties asked Kurds in Iran to go on strike to protest the execution of 6Kurdish political prisoners by the Islamic regime.Kurds responded to their calls,shops are closed&no one has been to work. Security forces threatened people but it didn’t work.
All the Kurdish cities are on strike. To see the unity and how organised the Kurds are is unique. We haven’t seen this anywhere else in Iran. This should be taking Into consideration when it comes to confronting the Iranian regime. A united force is crucial.
Kurds in Iran are on strike in response to brutal and inhuman executions of Kurdish political prisoners. Shops are closed in all Kurdish cities and no one is working which demonstrate the Kurds can be more important and effective in confronting the Iranian regime. This is unique.
Read 6 tweets

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