3-Lister’s Article mentions that Idlib contains entire array of groups from “MOST MODERATE of Free Syrian Army to ...” Please tell us who these groups are by name so we can ascertain how “most moderate” they are @joshua_landis
4-Lister writes that Turkey is pushing for HTS to “dissolve itself and integrate into a broader, more mainstream opposition structure”
This is “Alice in Wonderland” type analysis @joshua_landis
5-Lister: “Turkey has pressured mainstream opposition factions to unite their forces into present a more cohesive challenge to HTS”.
This is laughable & unrealistic even for Alice in Wonderland @joshua_landis
6-Lister: “The dynamics of northwest #Syria are extraordinarily complex”.
No, Idlib dynamics are not complex. @brett_mcgurk leveled the province “the largest al-Qaeda safe haven since Sep 11”. Nothing hard to understand here’ @joshua_landis
7-Lister’s best line: “Opp members have suggested in private (means WhatsApp/Skype?) that Turkey will soon be supplying them with MANPADS”
Well, this is just great. Hopefully those recipients are as well vetted as the previous arm & train programs. @brett_mcgurk@joshua_landis
8-Lister: Important to maintain state of relative calm in Idlib. Chaos and destruction feed the roots of extremism
False. Root of extremism is void in governance and the previously open borders that allowed jihadists to fill this void. See E #Aleppo & Ghouta after they left
9-Lister’s conclusion is call to leave #Idlib alone and focus on “reinforcing the status quo”
This so-called Status quo is al-Qaeda dominated province armed to the teeth that prevents integration of Syria and robs #Aleppo from highway access to the capital. @joshua_landis
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Thread on status of Syrian Opposition post the "demilitarized zone" agreement in #Idlib . Thus far, most commentary has regarded the deal as a win for the Opp since risk of imminent strike on the province has been avoided. But is this deal really a positive for opp? Answer: No=>
2-Let's step back first. This is an Opp that was formed with goal of toppling the State (diplomatic language of Geneva process called it political transition). Nothing short of above was acceptable to this opp. As of yesterday, mere avoidance of strikes is now seen as a win
3-Let's not also forget that from early days of Geneva's political transition talks, the only political activity left now is an attempt to establish constitutional committee. All else has been shelved. Now that we established the general status of the opp, let's discuss this deal
Thread listing Preliminary observations on the announcement of the “Demilitarized Zone” in #Idlib today: What does it mean for Turkey, Russia, Damascus and the armed groups? What is the likely risk/reward calculus for each party? What should we expect going forward? ===>
2– Let’s recap what we seem to know first: A zone 9-12 miles long would be established by Oct. 15. It would contain no heavy weapons or extreme elements of the insurgency (al-Qaeda-linked militants). It would be be patrolled by Turkish and Russian forces
3-First critical point to note is whether this deal will end up securing the highway that passes through Idlib and links the north and south of the country under Govt control together. This was of course one of the strategic aims of Damascus from any #Idlib operation
For the record, while everyone seems to believe that the number of civilians in #Idlib is close to 3 million, a Damascus source who has been very prescient in the past believes that the actual number may not exceed 1 million.
2-To suggest that 3 Million civilians live in #Idlib is to suggest:
A-That pre-war housing stock & other infrastructure was able to accommodate double the pre-war population
B-Moreover, safe to assume both housing & infrastructure now nowhere near pre-war conditions/capacity
3-In effect, for #Idlib to host 3 Million now compared to 1.2-1.5 pre-war is to assume either a building boom (not war) or construction of massive camps that would host such massive numbers. Yet to see credible images of such camps or investments in the housing stock
“Moderate rebels played a key role in Turkey’s fight against terrorists in Northern #Syria; their assistance and guidance will be crucial in Idlib as well”
2-Erdogan: “Preventing the assault on #Idlib need not set back counter-terrorism efforts. Turkey has succeeded in fighting terrorist groups, including ISIS and the PKK, without harming or displacing civilians”
Notice how he doesn’t include Nusra /al-Qaeda in above group
3- Erdogan: “Turkey’s ability to maintain order in Northern #Syria is proof that a responsible approach to counter-terrorism can win hearts and minds”
In order to truly understand the dynamic inside the #Syrian Armed Opposition, one must start to look into the ever closer marriage between the the Moslem Brotherhood and Nusra / al-Qaeda. Both have been joined at the hip through the sponsorship & support of #Qatar#Turkey ==>
2-Moslem Brotherhood (MB) lost its original military wing during the battle with the Syrian State in the 80’s. Best to think of Nusra/HTS/al-Qaeda in #Syria today as the new military wing of the M Brotherhood. One is the brain, the other represents arms & legs of the same body
3-The coordination between MB & Nusra/HTS/al-Qaeda has afforded the latter the chance to transform itself from non-state actor that had been hiding in the mountains of Afghanistan to an outfit with clear lines of communications to regional capitals that are supporting the MB
Q: All the factions in Syria are oppressors?
A: God knows best. They love money.
Q: So you thought there were jihad and defending Islam, but it's not like that on the ground?
A: Yes. Most of them declare takfir on whoever they like.
PERFECT WINDOW INTO THE FUTURE, THANK YOU
Q: Currently you are not with any faction?
A: No. They are all liars. They say what they do not do.
Q: There are people who say that jihad must continue in Syria. What do you say to these people?
A: If there are no honest factions. With whom [do you wage] jihad?