Preparations appear to be underway for a pro-#Assad offensive on #Idlib.
12hrs of on/off air & artillery strikes vs. southeastern & western #Idlib & northern #Hama - see marks on map (original by @ETANA_Syria + my additions).
+ multiple large pro-regime convoys moving north.
@ETANA_Syria#pt: If/when any major military campaign gets underway, expect the #Assad regime (+ #Russia & #Iran-backed militias) to focus on these 2 fronts:
1) West #Idlib (Jisr al-Shughour) 2) N. #Hama/#SE#Idlib (Latamineh, Khan Sheikhoun, Kafrazita)
@ETANA_Syria@theIRC@DMiliband Things notably escalating in NW #Syria, as (1) regime bombing has expanded to include helicopter-dropped barrel bombs & areas close to #Turkey’s military posts are hit.
I’m also told that #Ankara has informed National Liberation Front leaders of its plans to deploy air-defense systems, to reinforce de-escalation/deter air strikes.
I’m told these fighters were trained by the elite Malhama Tactical - #Russia-speaking former soldiers.
I’ll be on @BBCNewsnight tonight from 10.30pm British time, talking #Syria (UK withdrawal of stabilization funds; the state of play today; the future, #Russia & #Iran etc.) with @KirstyWark.
@BBCNewsnight@KirstyWark "As soon as one of us thinks about negotiating over their weapons, they'll have lost them… Just thinking about surrendering to the enemy & handing over weapons is treason.
#Turkey's observation points in the north cannot be relied on to face the enemy.”
@BBCNewsnight@KirstyWark Lots of rumors floating around about #HTS and an alleged decision to dissolve itself & integrate into a #Turkey-backed umbrella (i.e. the National Liberation Front) - to sustain de-escalation.
I’ve not heard anything to substantiate what appear to remain rumors.
@BBCNewsnight@KirstyWark My latest comments (from yesterday) on #Idlib & #Russia’s turn to conspiracy theories to “muddy the waters” & pave a path towards escalation.
- #Russia says UK “special services” are in #Idlib, alongside a private security contractor (the Olive Group), to train (#HTS/#Nusra) “militants” to work with chemical weapons, in order to stage a false flag attack & open a path for U.S. missile strikes.
- Talk of regime attack to begin in 24hrs
- New fleet of #Turkey APCs & tanks arrived into #Idlib
- #HTS negotiating intensively w. #Ankara on mutually-acceptable deal
- #Russia calls the area a “festering abscess” needing “liquidation"
NEW - #Turkey has added #HTS to Jabhat al-Nusra’s terrorist designation.
This comes amid #HTS’s continued refusal to agree to #Ankara’s demand that it dissolve itself and re-merge under #Turkish command, within the #NLF.
In the face of an eventual #Assad regime onslaught on 3million people, the UN Special Envoy’s advice is truly pitiful:
- Can the regime please *delay* its assault?
- If not, send civilians to live under the rule of those they fear the most.
Earlier today, #Turkey sent additional armored vehicles - this time BMC Kirpi MRAPs - into #Idlib, specifically in this case to Jisr al-Shughour, one area likely to be targeted first by #Assad & #Russia.
Amid an impeding attack on [areas of] northwestern #Syria, opposition & jihadi groups have:
- Dug extensive networks of trenches
- Expanded already sizable tunnel networks
- Deployed large numbers of artillery & MRLs along key frontlines, many concealed underground/cover.
#HTS has deployed its elite forces - including the newly revealed “Red” or “Death” Troops - to critical frontlines, including in Jabal Turkman, Jisr al-Shughour & outside Khan Sheikhoun.
In Western #Aleppo, Zinki has expanded its force through intensified volunteer recruitment.
Protesters have gathered across northern #Syria (in #Latakia, #Idlib, northern #Hama & western #Aleppo) condemning (1) #Assad & #Russia’s threats & (2) UN Envoy De Mistura’s comments yesterday.
"I actually have this boyish belief in humanity, but… I don't eeally have much to substantiate that in reality.”
- @BilalKareem’s off-cuff thoughts on the world’s disinterest in the fate of #Syria’s #Idlib province, and its 3 million civilians.
Major escalation in NW #Syria in the last 2hrs: air & artillery strikes hitting opposition areas in al-Ghab (#Hama) & #TIP areas around Jisr al-Shughour (#Idlib).
#Assad & #Russia jets still circling in the air, in what could well be the opening salvo of a significant campaign.
@CJTFOIR@OIRSpox@nikkihaley At least 16 civilians (including 5 children) were killed in today’s air & artillery strikes on opposition areas in #Idlib & northern #Hama.
@CJTFOIR@OIRSpox@nikkihaley Many of today’s airstrikes targeted areas in SW #Idlib - particularly in/near Jisr al-Shughour, Janoudiya & Bdama - areas heavily under the #TIP’s influence.
- That’s a message aimed at (1) #HTS (which depends on #TIP loyalty) & (2) #Turkey (which still seeks to dissolve #HTS).
Sources: #Turkey has ‘cleared' the National Liberation Front (#NLF) in #Hama & SE #Idlib to begin using stocks of 122mm Grad rockets & MRL launchers, which were provided several months ago & have been stored/held for use.
Setting the ground for tomorrow’s summit in #Iran.
Heavy #Russia-n airstrikes reported over the past hour targeting opposition areas around Kafr Zita in northern #Hama & al-Tamana’a in southern #Idlib.
Big #Russia airstrikes in southern #Idlib & northern #Hama today, in a markedly aggressive statement amid talks in #Tehran to negotiate the fate of northwestern #Syria.
Seems #Moscow/#Assad/#Iran have already made up their minds: an offensive of some level will definitely happen
BREAKING - #Assad regime sources say the northwestern offensive has begun.
Very heavy air & artillery strikes hit northern #Hama & southern #Idlib this morning - at least 50 strikes reported, including barrel bombs.
No ground movement yet.
“#Idlib has turned into a microcosm… where all the forces that gave rise to & were birthed by #Syria’s traumatic uprising are struggling in a catastrophic battle whose price, as usual, will be paid for by innocent civilians.”
The reality is a little more complex than that - see this new map by @suriyegundemi_
#HTS has also never been less popular, so undercurrents vulnerable to external exploitation are very real.
@kshaheen@suriyegundemi_ When assessing #Russia & #Assad’s ongoing air & artillery campaign, note the most heavily bombed areas are controlled by (1) Jaish al-Izzeh & (2) the TIP.
Both zones are being attacked for differing complex reasons, to do with each group’s unique internal & external dynamics.
@kshaheen@suriyegundemi_#pt: #Turkey intelligence has fostered close relations with the #TIP - using them as a key node of control vis-a-vis #HTS on one side, and AQ loyalists on the other.
By singling out #TIP, #Russia/#Assad hope to suck #HTS & #TIP back into AQ fold - completing the “demarbling."
@kshaheen@suriyegundemi_#pt: Jaish al-Izzeh has remained a determinedly independent movement, focused geographically along N. #Hama/S. #Idlib front, controlling key portion of M5 highway.
That places them in control of valuable trade routes & makes them a key vulnerability for weakening southern lines.
@kshaheen@suriyegundemi_ There’s been some interesting media work on the #TIP lately, but in #Syria’s context, labeling them a Uighur group is missing a beat.
Over the past 2yrs, they’ve internationalized significantly; one reason for #China’s heightening concerns, as the group takes on a broader brand.
@kshaheen@suriyegundemi_ Another angle here is the U.S., which has ramped up its rhetoric over the prospect of escalation in #Idlib.
I get the sense that this isn’t to protect #Idlib per se, as much as it is to pull #Turkey away from #Russia & #Iran, killing prospects for a #Moscow-designed “settlement"
@kshaheen@suriyegundemi_ A more cohesive NSC & a re-energized/empowered State Dept, plus a DOD & IC determined to sustain the C-#ISIS mission, make for a more holistic internal policy debate.
The challenge is designing a package of leverage areas to make U.S a credible player.
@kshaheen@suriyegundemi_ "There are so many British fighters in #Idlib that snacks from the #UK — including Jaffa Cakes, Maltesers, Smarties & Rolos at four for £1 — are sold in at least 3 shops.”
Read: - "British jihadists must flee #Syria or fight as Idlib offensive looms”
- Agreement w. #Ankara stipulated max size of TSK deployment for observation posts… if this is exceeded, TSK will be treated as an “illegal foreign presence” on #Syria territory.
@kshaheen@suriyegundemi_@facebook@MiddleEastInst "Preventing the assault on #Idlib need not set back CT efforts… the international community must understand their responsibilities… consequences of inaction are immense. We cannot leave #Syria's people to the mercy of #Assad."
7-10 days ago, #NLF groups were cleared by #Ankara to deploy newly supplied 122mm Grads & MRLs, in response to #Assad regime ground attacks if/when necessary.
#Turkey has provided substantial amounts of weapons & ammunition - including U.S.-made TOW anti-tank missiles - to #NLF fighters situated on 5 fronts across #Idlib:
In all likelihood, #Erdogan will reiterate #Turkey’s determination to counter terrorists in #Syria’s northwest, thereby buying more time & upping the ante on #HTS internally.
@REACH_info#pt: #Turkey knows it can’t risk fighting #HTS as a whole, given the resulting chaos that'd ensue. It also knows all of #HTS is unlikely to agree to a dissolution or subjugation under the #NLF.
What #Ankara seeks is a break-up of #HTS - something becoming more likely over time.
@REACH_info The recent stop/start threat of imminent escalation in #Idlib, paired with #Turkey’s active diplomacy w. #Russia, the U.S & non-HTS armed groups have compounded pressure within #HTS hugely.
Big questions being asked these days & major internal divisions over its existing stance.
@REACH_info Within #HTS itself, sustaining ties with #Turkey is becoming an increasingly untenable position to take/defend - trust in #Ankara is dissolving fast.
Beyond #HTS, Al-Qaeda loyalist circles are piling on the pressure, accusing #HTS & #Jolani of working with apostates (Turks).
@REACH_info Despite some *localized* calls by #HTS commanders to leave #FSA protests alone across #Idlib on Friday, lead figures in #HTS’s Shura Council were infuriated when those same protests featured #Turkey flags.
Abu al-Fateh al-Farghaly even issued a fatwa banning them, as “secular":
@REACH_info For the past 12 months, #HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani has sought to tie together an increasingly untenable religio-political agenda:
- Remaining dedicated to Salafi-Jihadism, but strictly within a national context & while engaged in talking to foreign nation-state govts.
@REACH_info#pt: Until now, that stretched agenda has protected #HTS from possible internal & external threats, but the more heightened the threat, the less sustainable this “pragmatism” becomes.
The implication? Something’s got to give - #HTS’s internal durability faces a serious threat.
@REACH_info So in short: When you hear #Erdogan & other #Turkey officials express a determination to fight terrorists in #Idlib, this -- #HTS’s severe internal differences -- is the dynamic they’re seeking to exploit.
Watch this closely in the coming week or so - something’s got to give.
- #Russia & #Turkey have agreed to create a 15-20km -wide “demilitarized zone” separating opposition & pro-#Assad forces. #HTS, AQ & other extremists must vacate the zone.
In other words: enhanced de-escalation for #Idlib.
@REACH_info#pt is v. interesting; it could actually work… but it’s not a “solution.”
More than anything, this gives #Turkey more time (& more leverage) to manipulate conditions in #Idlib & to further exacerbate #HTS’s internal divisions & work towards separating acceptable/irreconcilable.
@REACH_info This new #Turkey-#Russia DMZ agreement will face several immediate implementation challenges:
- NE #Latakia, under influence of small AQ-linked jihadists
- Bdama-Jisr region, under #TIP control
- Al-Eis area, SW of #Aleppo, under #HTS influence.
I’ve added blue zones, which'll present early challenges for implementation - all of which have actors who’ll resist leaving
&/or withdrawing heavy weapons.
Not also: Jisr is left untouched.
@REACH_info@Liveuamap There are spoilers aplenty in opposition NW #Syria. What’s most likely to happen in the next 24-48hrs?
- Probing attacks by small jihadi units in NE #Latakia.
- Unclaimed drone attacks on #Hmeymim.
- Possible large-scale terror attack in heart of regime-held territories.
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- They seek to enable a meaningful political process, in which there’s an opposition entity to sit at the table. I’d say that is honorable.
@steelejourno#pt: Here, @steelejourno says UK, US, France & "Gulf Arab monarchies” want ceasefires to protect rebels, not civilians.
In #Idlib, nothing could be further from the truth. None of those countries have *any* ties to rebel groups in #Idlib, who only equal ~0.5% of the population.
#Israel says #Syria’s air defense fired “dozens” of anti-aircraft missiles from several batteries across the country over the space of 40-mins… *after* #IAF planes had returned to #Israel.
Fascinating work by @HaidHaid22 - looking at initiatives (or a lack, thereof) by the #SDF & the #FSA to reconcile/rehabilitate/reintegrate #ISIS detainees in northern #Syria.
- Surging strains on the #SDF's makeshift prison network holding 1,000s of #ISIS prisoners, raises risks of eventual #ISIS attacks, aimed at replicating #Iraq’s 2012-3 “Breaking the Walls.”
Here, a @UKLabour MP praises a notorious conspiracist who says meeting Bashar al-#Assad was her "proudest" moment.
She's justified incendiary weapons & barrel bombs on civilian targets; suggested 9/11 was a false flag; Zionists rule #France & the #CharlieHebdo attack was fake.
St. Joseph’s Church in the village al-Quneya - the one cleaned by White Helmets - in west #Idlib suffered substantial damage when it was bombed by #Assad regime forces in April 2013.
So much for being the protector of Christians & #Syria’s minorities.