notsofast Profile picture
Aug 10, 2018 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Sure let's make some predictions for the next $crypto bullrun:
1a. GPU-algo PoW chains will have a hell of a time dealing with the sudden hashrate dropoffs from auto-switching to more profitable jobs than $mining, until an equilibrium is found, which will take awhile.
What kind of jobs? ML, AI, rendering, AWS compute competing...
1b. This'll lead to chain attacks whereby fake jobs are posted to deliberately lower a chain's nethash and thus the threshold to attack it.
ASIC PoW networks won't have this substitutability so they won't be vulnerable to this vector.
2. Underlying network value will come to the fore as a speculative pivot. 99% of tokens, whose only underlying value is their business proposition, will be relegated to the p&d penny stock market: barely relevant and little real money to be made. Regulation completes the squeeze.
3. Informational access will be overvalued. Example: @CoinMarketCap-listed coins will pump harder because it'll be the main way people know about them in the first place. Legacy shitcoin pumps will shock and disgust you.
4. Institutional money absolutely will trickle down from the Big #Altcoins: individuals at those institutions trying to outperform them, or sell a personal bag to their institution, is one of countless human greed vectors hurdling over low barriers.
5. #Bitcoin USD marketcap may not get a flippening, but something will come close. Why? Most institutional trade won't be on spot $BTC, but ETFs and artificial instruments used to neuter the market like with gold. A coin with no derivatives has no such ceiling. Get ready to flip.
6. ERC20 tokens trading on DEXes will see MASSIVE captive-supply pump-and-dumps after their parent network is spammed so arbitration transactions can't get through. This will also be done to centralize control of a given project's token and hostile-takeover the project.
6b. This won't be a surprise to anyone familiar with #Yolobit. Everyone else is gonna see their favourite token projects make some very strange pivots in their business propositions afterwards.
*arbitrage not arbitration #duh #sorry

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More from @notsofast

Jul 5, 2018
Don't trust anyone in $crypto.
This is a core rule that has many facets and offshoots, including when it's worth breaking.
(here comes moar tweets)
Specific examples.
Fake Twitter followers are easy to buy.
YET that means they're easy to buy for someone else's account, in an attack to discredit that person.
YET ALSO that means one who buys followers for self-aggrandizement can claim someone's attacking him via follower-buys.
Callbacks to past winning trade calls, to create a narrative of being right all the time, can be edited.
You can delete all your wrong tweets. You can delete all your wrong telegram calls.
Read 12 tweets
Apr 29, 2018
We're attracted to having large numbers of things.
Some #altcoins should therefore split to unlock latent value; the more utilitarian the $crypto token, the more potential benefit if cheap & numerous.
eg $GEO - large caches seem more bountiful, single tokens have cheap utilities
More examples:
$BLOCK - Service rewards are non-decimal numbers
$FANS - small bets are still whole numbers; big bets are BIG numbers
$DCR - better representation as a currency as well as store of value
Everyone says #Bitcoin is infinitely divisible and wallets can be revised to move the decimal, but no coin to my knowledge has ever done this (instead splitting by fork). Attempts to hack people's impressions, like promoting denomination in bits (100 sat), have failed so far.
Read 6 tweets

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