Thread - Was #Syrian Ba’ath Party Economic Policy which was built on Self-reliance and local industry ahead of its time? Did that policy anticipate what we know now as the power of Western Economic Sanctions? Has Erdogan been lately repeating words taken from Baathist textbooks?
2-It’s hard to argue with possibility that the answers to all the above questions is in the affirmative. Coming from a Neo-Liberal Free Markets proponent like myself, I must admit to now seeing the political rationale behind deciding to shun globalization & purity of free markets
3-Having just listened to Erdogan’s lspeech calling on shunning imports and trying on local industry instead, one can’t help but see the similarities with the Baathist policies that I grew up with in #Syria . His attack on America and its economic power also sounded too familiar
4-Fact of the matter is that once a country enters the globalized economy, develops its banking system to Western standards and allows its currency to be fully convertible on world markets, it is one White House executive order away from going on its knees
5-The recent wave of Economic Sanctions are regrettable because what they are giving the excuse to developing countries to look inward and move away from free markets knowing that one set of American sanctions is enough to knock their economies back to the ground
6-As a student of economics, there is little doubt that entering the world economy, banking and finance brings countries more prosperity than adopting socialism and policy of industrial self-reliance. But, in this new real world, it is hard to separate economics from politics
7-Economic Sanctions merely prove that Western capitals can and have brought lesser developing countries to their knees. The reaction of the latter is inevitable. Regrettably, even a country like #Turkey now seems to be pivoting away from blind embrace of globalized open markets
8-Of course leaders want high economic growth and many may be convinced that free markets and globalization is the roadmap to follow but the recent wave of economic sanctions are forcing those leaders to think about the political & strategic costs of doing so
9-To be sure, #Turkey did not suffer latest currency crisis just because of the sanctions. Credit expansion was too high and relied on short term foreign financing. With high inflation and refusal to hike interest rates, foreign funding dried and the domino effect took place.
10-Economic Sanctions merely speeded the fall of the dominos but more importantly they offered Erdogan the perfect excuse to blame them as the mere reason for his country’s economic crisis.
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Thread on status of Syrian Opposition post the "demilitarized zone" agreement in #Idlib . Thus far, most commentary has regarded the deal as a win for the Opp since risk of imminent strike on the province has been avoided. But is this deal really a positive for opp? Answer: No=>
2-Let's step back first. This is an Opp that was formed with goal of toppling the State (diplomatic language of Geneva process called it political transition). Nothing short of above was acceptable to this opp. As of yesterday, mere avoidance of strikes is now seen as a win
3-Let's not also forget that from early days of Geneva's political transition talks, the only political activity left now is an attempt to establish constitutional committee. All else has been shelved. Now that we established the general status of the opp, let's discuss this deal
Thread listing Preliminary observations on the announcement of the “Demilitarized Zone” in #Idlib today: What does it mean for Turkey, Russia, Damascus and the armed groups? What is the likely risk/reward calculus for each party? What should we expect going forward? ===>
2– Let’s recap what we seem to know first: A zone 9-12 miles long would be established by Oct. 15. It would contain no heavy weapons or extreme elements of the insurgency (al-Qaeda-linked militants). It would be be patrolled by Turkish and Russian forces
3-First critical point to note is whether this deal will end up securing the highway that passes through Idlib and links the north and south of the country under Govt control together. This was of course one of the strategic aims of Damascus from any #Idlib operation
For the record, while everyone seems to believe that the number of civilians in #Idlib is close to 3 million, a Damascus source who has been very prescient in the past believes that the actual number may not exceed 1 million.
2-To suggest that 3 Million civilians live in #Idlib is to suggest:
A-That pre-war housing stock & other infrastructure was able to accommodate double the pre-war population
B-Moreover, safe to assume both housing & infrastructure now nowhere near pre-war conditions/capacity
3-In effect, for #Idlib to host 3 Million now compared to 1.2-1.5 pre-war is to assume either a building boom (not war) or construction of massive camps that would host such massive numbers. Yet to see credible images of such camps or investments in the housing stock
“Moderate rebels played a key role in Turkey’s fight against terrorists in Northern #Syria; their assistance and guidance will be crucial in Idlib as well”
2-Erdogan: “Preventing the assault on #Idlib need not set back counter-terrorism efforts. Turkey has succeeded in fighting terrorist groups, including ISIS and the PKK, without harming or displacing civilians”
Notice how he doesn’t include Nusra /al-Qaeda in above group
3- Erdogan: “Turkey’s ability to maintain order in Northern #Syria is proof that a responsible approach to counter-terrorism can win hearts and minds”
In order to truly understand the dynamic inside the #Syrian Armed Opposition, one must start to look into the ever closer marriage between the the Moslem Brotherhood and Nusra / al-Qaeda. Both have been joined at the hip through the sponsorship & support of #Qatar#Turkey ==>
2-Moslem Brotherhood (MB) lost its original military wing during the battle with the Syrian State in the 80’s. Best to think of Nusra/HTS/al-Qaeda in #Syria today as the new military wing of the M Brotherhood. One is the brain, the other represents arms & legs of the same body
3-The coordination between MB & Nusra/HTS/al-Qaeda has afforded the latter the chance to transform itself from non-state actor that had been hiding in the mountains of Afghanistan to an outfit with clear lines of communications to regional capitals that are supporting the MB
Q: All the factions in Syria are oppressors?
A: God knows best. They love money.
Q: So you thought there were jihad and defending Islam, but it's not like that on the ground?
A: Yes. Most of them declare takfir on whoever they like.
PERFECT WINDOW INTO THE FUTURE, THANK YOU
Q: Currently you are not with any faction?
A: No. They are all liars. They say what they do not do.
Q: There are people who say that jihad must continue in Syria. What do you say to these people?
A: If there are no honest factions. With whom [do you wage] jihad?