James Wilson Profile picture
Aug 21, 2018 27 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Damn Dams!!

They created all hell in Kerala......

How many dams are there in Achecoil, Manimala & Meenachil which created havoc in Central Kerala?


How much yield of Pamba River is impounded in the dams there?

JUST 10.4%

Blame it on dams!!
Come to the Northern Kerala.....

There you have the Great Chaliyar River, which flows through Kozhikode and Malappuram Districts.

How many dams are there is this Chaliyar River basin other than some small weirs?

Blame it on dams..
Why ur doing annual maintenance of Idukki machines whn the Monsoon is active?

Smart QN.

But understand that Idukki is meeting Kerala's peak energy demand, its annual maintenance are done during monsoon and its all machine are needed in summer whn demand high, not in monsoon
When Kerala's small reservoirs which are used to over flow in monsoon seasons are run during monsoon and Idukki machines used to be put on annual maintenance one by one during monsoon. Chill! who damn cares! we will dictate ur grid discipline
Why the Idamalayar is built? Is it basically power generating dam? 75 MW and 1020 MCM of water storage...It is built with a purpose of containing flood waters, giving irrigation potential and summer drinking water needs and to mitigate saline water intrusion..
Major problem is a perception problem. Unlike in Tamil Nadu, their PWD (WRO) own major dams, here in Kerala KSEB owns major dams. Here people think it is all greedy KSEB want to exploit the rivers.

We are hearing about integrated river basin development now...

Let's look back
First take Idukki reservoir, Idukki, Kallar & Erattayar together have a combined storage capacity of 1465 MCM and on average it regulates 1735 MCM, this is discharged to Malankara Dam with just 18.8 MCM capacity in Muvattupuzha, which caters Muvattupuzha Valley Irrigation Project
Look at how much of this controlled releases are used by Kerala Water Authority when the number of rainy days are getting less and meeting drinking water needs for people.

What is the flood storage allowance of this dam? 12.3% of its max capacity when KSEB started flood release
Come to Pamba....Sabarigiri Group - Kakki + Pamba plus its augmentations Gavi, Meenar-1 &2 & Moozhiyar+Veluthode - together can store just 483 MCM, which regulates 861 MCM and discharges to Maniyar Barrage having 1MCM live storage is used for Pamba Irrigation Project & drinking
Take the Chalakudy Basin. TN Sholayar- 5.4 TMC & Parambikulam Group -20.5 TMC (inside Kerala for TN use), We have only KER Sholayar & Poringal - 6 TMC by KSEB which regulates around 20 TMC for Chalakudy Valley Irrigation Project & Drinking
What is the capacity of Thumboormoozhi weir? ZERO.

What was the situation before Kerala Sholayar?

You always here a legend that before KSEB dams, Athirappilly falls was so great in summer, now became emaciated

Read this letter from N. Divakaran to EMS dated 23.10.18
We love to hear fantasy peddled as facts!!

An English translation of some points:

1. River is almost dry (It's October)
2. Irrigation scheme is a failure (Poringalkuthu Dam can only store 1 TMC alone was there)
3. We are taking bath by digging small pits in the river.
4. Water in river now is not potable

5. Saline intrusion is a great concern.

6. Complete Sholayar and Orukomban Reservoirs to ensure water for all seasons

Chalakudy is the steepest river in #Kerala, explains it's sharp response
Come back to the discussion..

Periyar Valley Irrigation Project under Bhoothankettu Barrage with no appreciable storage receives water from Idamalayar + 7 small reservoirs in Mudirapuzha with 1185 MCM regulates 2740 MCM annually.

Drinking water projects too depend these dams
Kuttiyadi Irrigation Project is an exception, which is not fully depend on the upstream KSEB reservoirs for its use. Even then for 2nd & 3rd crops KYIP need this water.

Peruvannamoozhi 113 MCM (IRN)


Kuttiyadi 34 MCM
Banasurasgar 186 MCM
Regulates 340 MCM annually
So understand our forefathers developed these rivers primarily for Irrigation and drinking water, power generation was it's supplementary use.

Kerala stores how much of its river water in these damn dams?

Just 6.6% of annual flow!

Empty it when IMD says it's 96% to 104% LPA
What this great IMD predicted for Kerala in their bulletin dated 9th August 2018 for next two weeks for Kerala?


Dont bother about LPA prediction or short term prediction by IMD, empty ur dams and wait for a deluge...

Great Advice...Anyone can say anything in HINDSIGHT
Then first suffer drinking water shortage..Then irrigation water problem..what electricity..u can even make that from waves!!

But you greedy people not emptied your dams. Did not listen to our wisdom in hindsight!!!
Now come back to the point of flood storage spaces

Of course, we need them...Why our dams dont have that beyond a point, why create bigger spillways rather than flood storages? warrant a considered debate based on its historical and economical perspective
I forgot to put the inflow into the Idukki when this 9th prediction of IMD was there.

Please see the GRAPH and see the trend till 9th. Our media wanted to crash lock Idukki shutters, not because of an extreme rainfall by Kanipayyur, they want to see Idukki getting open after 92
The inflow was declining day by day since 27th July and KSEB was generating power using more water than what is coming as inflow from 4/8/18 but our astrologers are asking why did not you foresee a 1 in 1000 year event & emptied your damn dams?
Please don't get confused with 1 in 1000year. This term in return period confuses even engineers who has not exposed risk criteria analysis. Better to express it Annual Exceedence probability (AEP). So there is 9.52% chance to have a 1 in 1000 year event in a span of 100 years
In every year, the probability of such a flood event of 1 in 1000 year is 0.1%..

So these pundits will advise us why did we fill these dams when they foresee that a deluge is on the way & you are not supposed to store water
Why did not you don't have a FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM, oops..

These illiterates Mallus have no idea about the scientific advancement!

Our catchment to dam travel time is just 4-5 hours it's fine with catchments having response time of 24 to 48 hours where you can act!!
Any hydrology familiar engineer can sense a rising limb and recession limb if he look at hourly data and no qualitative input you are going to implement a flood forecasting system in catchments have short response time!!!
Every flood and every drought is an opportunity for some experts to offer free wisdom.

I am ready for debate and learn from the constructive dissent. Not ready to take agendas or vitriol..

Will write, a detailed post on this

Now..Good night!!
Forget to share a slide of my presentation...long back I was giving a presentation to TVM Press Club, long back in 2005...I have not updated this ..so this is not latest. Kerala Dam figure did not include 4 dams for TN in Kerala

Now realise how damn dammed is Kerala!!


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More from @jamewils

Sep 18, 2018
Some #Demonetisation thoughts!

Many here asked me why I am not reacted to the latest RBI Annual Report which exposed DeMon as nothing but a perverted dream of a Tughlak.

First of all there was nothing surprising elements there for me!!
Then everyone was discussing the amount of 99% returned to the system! Some sigh of relief as our Urjit stop counting, but I don't get any evidence that he has stopped that!!

Because still we hear about old SBN notes are seized by agencies ;)
Annual Report 2017-18 of the RBI that Rs.15.311 trillion Specified Bank Notes was returned. While RBI in its AR in 2016-17 itself admitted that as of June 30, 2017, received Rs.15.28 trillion of SBN. 

Total SBN demotenised was Rs.15.44 trillion

99.2% vs 99.0% is a big deal?? 😉
Read 16 tweets
Sep 2, 2018
IMD started issuing alerts "be prepared" from August 8! "For action" was issued on August 9.

At least glad that IMD admitted that their alerts were that close.

Also thank you for not claiming that they have issued alerts for "extreme rainfall" and only "heavy rainfall" then
I scanned all those reports of this regional office issued. NOWHERE I SEEN AN EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT ALERT. Each Monsoon season IMD used to issue HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL alerts and small reservoirs used to spill and the spate will be comfortably negotiated by the rivers
Please understand the nuances. We can negotiate a heavy rainfall event, whatever allowances in the dams and river channels are sufficient to negotiate that one. You will see some flooding, may be a knee deep one & dams spill w/o any problems
Read 25 tweets
Aug 30, 2018
"In Kerala, there’s no reason to damn the dams" here is my answer to all pundits who are preaching an early opening of Idukki would have saved the flooding of Periyar..

Read it slowly and understand the nuances! nationalheraldindia.com/india/in-keral…
Grab the hardcopy and read @NH_India
I felt depressed when a person who served as the Director of the prestigious IITM says that he has given warning & Kerala has no respect for his warning but Odisha has!!
Oh boy!! I am at a loss if you cant discern cyclones in East coast and extreme rainfall in Western coast
Read 8 tweets
Aug 27, 2018
With due respect to his credentials as an expert environmentalist, I differ with him, because this is a repeat of 1924 and this type of extreme events will occur with an annual exceedence probability of 9.52% in a span of 100 years!

Extreme floods is not his area of expertise!
In our country, we have a habit of people and experts venture into the uncharted territory where they have no domain knowledge.

I can't/will not comment on ecology or environment because it's not my domain. I read and understand but never make sweeping statements about that
What about the 1924 flood? When Kerala had no encroachment and had one foruth of the population than now?

Now the scientific evidence shows that this 2018 is a repeat of 1924!! Nature has it's crazy behaviour.

Gadgil is right about landslides but not about floods. Sorry!
Read 4 tweets
Aug 22, 2018
I am ready for a debate with any of these experts who are blaming KSEB for mismanagement of dam operations.

Stop sweeping statements! Come out with data and talk sense!

Don't lead a literate society to blind spots!!
When our catchment areas had experienced one third of the annual rainfall within 4 days pinch yourself...Can you believe it?

& the Engineers managed efficiently and contained these floods even when you had a 1 in 1000 year flood!

Please don't destroy their morale!!
This is the hard evidence of 4 days of non-stop extreme rainfall

Idukki -811mm (Idukki Dist)
Pamba - 344 mm (Pathanamthitta Dist)
Kakki - 915 mm (Pathanamthitta Dist)
Kuttiyadi - 954 mm (Kozhikode Dist)
Idamalayar - 644 mm (Ernakulam Dist)
Read 14 tweets
Aug 19, 2018
Let me try to answer briefly, though meteorology or climate change science is my area of expertise. I normally don't venture into unknown territories

My surmises are based on my extensive research on past extreme rainfall events & PMP estimates (upper bound of rainfall)
It's not about the overall rainfall in an year, though the trend is more or less not much difference, we can observe a slight decrease. Same time we are seeing a skewed no of rainfall days off late. That means less number of rainy days and more intense rains
Climate change scientists predicted more frequent rainfall events for Western Coast. But I think that the present rainfall events of Mumbai of 2005 or Kerala of 2018 are not enough to make a reach a conclusion that we are experiencing the after effects of climate change.
Read 12 tweets

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