The key reaction for voters therefore is to ensure that 2019 is a wide-ranging conversation on all aspects of nation-building including but not limited to corruption.
The key reaction for PDP is to focus on its own areas of strength and turn out its own base as best as possible.
Pursuing new voting blocs, organise in the media, trend hashtags and all that is good but turning out the base is the most important task of the party and its candidate.
Any candidate who worked against PDP in 2015 will likely lose the core voting base of PDP to apathy.
If that candidate can bring in a new voting bloc equal to the base that will be lost, then it’s a good trade-off but what guarantees?
Especially when what will be under attack will be the party platform, not the candidate.
To my mind, it’s really simple and straightforward.
PDP lost 2015 not specifically to any coloured media or social media or propaganda or whatever: the base simply didn’t turn up because party leaders were intimidated by the opposition (in the North) or disillusioned (in the South).
Those votes didn’t go to APC: they abstained.
Uniting the party is the biggest task and that is where the biggest effort must be deployed.
Every other thing is important including media narratives and all that, but no political force in Nigeria can match the PDP when it is truly and fully united in action.
I should say this to all Igbos whom I feel have been forced by historical and recent events to take a position of “We don’t care about Power” in their own country:
If Power in any Nation is not something some parts of that Nation can aspire to, then it’s not a true Nation.
So we just did this and my argument for an Igbo running mate for Atiku hinges on three things: Strategy, Reward to Achieve Higher Performance and Nationalism.
Let me start from the last: PDP cannot successfully claim to be a Nationalist party if SE doesn’t get VP - simple.
On strategy - we had 3 main thrusts from 2015 when PDP lost: a) Expose APC for failure b) Choose a Fulani Candidate to challenge Buhari in his base and c) Choose an Igbo running mate to turn out higher numbers than 2015 from the SE, like it did in 2011.
We’ve done a,b; now do c.
After Kano results came in and PDP lost woefully, I looked at 2011 figures and still felt confident that PDP would win.
If the SE had given us same figures in 2015 as it had in 2011, GEJ would have won in 2015.
PDP will win SE - I agree.
But will PDP win SE massively? Not sure.
I think the current crop of political leaders across Nigeria have failed to learn one crucial lesson about Relevance, Influence and Rest - which many in our generation also don’t understand.
For me, it is what Uncle Bola Ige aptly described as the “Siddon Look Movement”.
Siddon Look basically is a posture of political inactivity or passive political participation rather than pushing yourself into the fray in order not to lose relevance.
Ige took this position in reaction to the IBB regime Third Republic and it was effective for his politics.
Many politicians, jittery of losing their political base participated in the Third Republic until it was scuttled.
Again during the ill-fated Abacha transition, Ige still didn’t participate until that also ended - yet by 1999, Ige and his party retained their power bases.
As I was saying about the permutations that won the victory today...
Before Tambuwal came into the venue last night, an indistinguishable man was announced and I knew immediately that The Generals had decided and he was here to oversee.
In 1999, Atiku was presiding over a PDM meeting to endorse Ekwueme as PDP presidential flagbearer when Gusau came and informed him that Obasanjo was the preferred candidate of The Generals.
Atiku postponed that meeting for two days and when they reconvened, dynamics had changed.
A debt was paid last night with the change in permutations but Otta is not a power base that shifts easily.
It took a call from the West to shift the stand of Otta, where the god that resides there had as far back as 3 months ago vowed to support whoever emerged from PDP.
Was mildly surprised last night to see that the APC was also holding a convention from which the only positive I see is that someone isn’t totally lifeless but merely sleeping at one of the most important events of his life.
The permutations involved the horse-trading between aspirants, the concessions made in delegates, political deals and also rumours from online about Cash - which I saw none of personally, know no one who saw but I am certain happened as always in politics.