Thread by @EHSANI22

#Assad has repeatedly vowed to retake “Every Inch of #Syria”. While the pledge seemed unrealistic early on, it suddenly doesn’t seem too far fetched. But is Assad’s vow only about land, or is there something more fundamental that has been cornerstone of the leadership’s strategy

2-Vowing to “Take Every Inch of #Syria back” started as early as 2013 when Damascus would make the pledge in private to Western officials who came looking for solutions. Such officials were known to have warned Damascus that, even if possible, such would take years to achieve =>

3-Since the pledge was first used in private in 2013, the #Syrian leadership has stuck to its vow and made it clear that there can’t be a political solution until every inch of the country is taken back under State control first. This fundamental premise continues today

4-Whether it is armed groups in #Idlib or the Kurds in #Qameshli or #Hasakeh , Damascus seems persistent in pushing forward with its vow to retake those areas back and restore the pre-2011 status. There will be no political solutions till this is achieved first =>

5-But is it just about land? No. The issue has more to do restoring &
maintaining the country’s long standing demographic structure and balance. Vowing to Take every inch back is vowing to ensure that the original inhabitants of every village in Syria are back to pre-2011 status

6-Should the state fail at ensuring the original inhabitants of every Syrian village are able to go back home is seen by Damascus as a dangerous precedent that can only invite future wars as new groups attempt to grab land & homes of other groups knowing this was possible in 2011

7-A Remarkable incident took place recently that goes to confirm the above. During the battle of #Daraa and #Quneitra, Russian negotiators made deal with an important local armed group that later invited a strong negative reaction from Damascus ==>

8-Alwiyet al Furqan led by Majed al Khatib, originally from village of Knakaer 40 km north and known to many by nickname Clinton for his light features had been occupying the villages the mostly Circassian village of Bariqa, Beer Ajam & Kahtanieh which are right on #Israel border

9-Russian negotiators reached deal w Alwiyet al Furqan leader to stay in the villages & commit to maintain security in the area. Syrian officials were not initially aware of Russian commitment to allow the group to remain. Recall members of this group are from Kanakir 40km North

10-When Damascus became fully aware of deal's detailsl, it made its concerns known to Moscow immediately. Syrian leadership saw this as a dangerous precedent that would make it possible for other groups to think they can stay in areas they grabbed during the war

11-In spite of original agreement between Russian negotiators and the armed group, Damascus did succeed in reversing the deal. The groups would ultimately leave the villages. The incident ought to be seen as a template of what "Retaking Every Inch" really means for #Damascus

12-When the goal of taking every inch back was first articulated to Western officials as early as 2013, Damascus requested that to help it achieve its goal they must put pressure on Turkey and other states financing the war to stop doing so to help shorten the duration of the war

13-Western & regional capitals were convinced that Damascus couldn't possibly deliver on its vow. Little was known then about Damascus' plan to call on its Russian ally. Now & more than ever before, the vow to take every inch back still drives the leadership's long term strategy

14-Wil conclude with word on #Assad . No one can speculate what happens in 2021 when his first term ends (current constitution allows 2 terms ending in 2028). What we do know for sure is that the “Retaking of Every Inch” vow is a prerequisite for any & all political outcomes