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Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
@nntaleb
Aug 27, 2018 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Statistically flawed statement: no such claims can be made under high variance power law.

#SkinintheGame: if @paulkrugman had his own $ at risk, he would have been blowup on bitcoin up >10^4% & eliminated from the ecology... or eliminated from the ecology before even bitcoin...
From work/discussion with @financequant: BTC doesn't even have a variance, steep power law.
3) To simplify, this is the #FooledbyRandomness effect: @paulkrugman is pontificating from NOISE, not signal, and the first thing one should teach students is to learn to make a difference between noise and signal.

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More from @nntaleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Sep 29, 2018
Someone finally got it. They are all weak (both sides), insecure, lacking in grandor, and it’s a shame we are dragged into this s***t. America deserves much better.
This is not a job interview for auditor in chief at the local utility company. This is a lifetime apptmnt as a justice in the Supreme Court. It entails tough decisions. Very tough decisions.

Gabish?
The only person who showed spine inthe episode was Lindsey Graham. I hate him. He is a neocon. He is an interventionist. But he showed spine.
Read 4 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Sep 24, 2018
Where a 100% left wing crowd agreed with my message:

+ Localism, bottom-up
+ Statism is rent seeking by insiders, academics, & cronies
+ No enterprise without #Skininthegame
+ No abstract scale-free universalism

A different reaction than the one by the statist-militarist "left"
2) These "leftists" even agreed that":

The central state ends up being controlled by lobbyists

The tort system outperforms centralized regulation: EPA was owned by Monsanto (retrospective bribe/hiring former regulators)

Banks subjected to bailouts shd have government salaries
3) Many are actually IN FAVOR of having "pundits" inflict risks on others with impunity": those are members of the bureaucratic state.

Lawrence Summers @LHSummers EXPLICITLY opposed Skin in the Game in favor of "risk analysis" (debate in Las Vegas).

Read 4 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Sep 19, 2018
MISREPRESENTATION of STATISTICAL PICTURE

Journos @FranckGenauzeauare clueless & cherrypicking. Lebanon is currently greening, >150,000 additional Cedar trees at higher level plus rising treeline.

The planet is undergoing yuuge reforestation.

This demoralizes environmentalists
Pictures of Leb in 1900 vs today. Clear reforestation.

1) Cedar story is missing the success of new growth across the mountain.
2) @FranckGenauze has never heard of cherry picking/sensationalism/sucker alarmism.
Read 5 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Sep 16, 2018
I thought chess players would think in more than one step. Before arguing whether "fascists" should be museled,

How do you know if someone is "fascist" if you don't let him express his opinions?

...Or the best way to exercise fascism is to call people fascists to shut them up.
To answer the usual idiot bringing up Popper

muzzled
Read 6 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Sep 16, 2018
SUNDAY MATH RIDDLE, courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine.
OK, there is a theorem for the proof of convergence.
Herschfelds Convergence Theorem

mathworld.wolfram.com/HerschfeldsCon…
As to numerical tricks
Read 4 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Sep 14, 2018
Why did the Crisis of 2008 Happen?
My report *then*, to the Obama commission. All these talkers are still clueless about the reasons.

academia.edu/37409070/Why_D…
2) The very angry Youtube version of the paper.

The version of "Why did the Crisis of 2008 Happen?" on @researchersone:

researchers.one/article/2018-0…
Read 5 tweets

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