Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Skininthegame
Most recents (24)
1) Someone sitting in the comfort of a think tank office (with a fridge full of yoghurt drinks) dictating what aid people on the ground in Syria should receive in order to satisfy her grand principles.
#SkinintheGame.
#SkinintheGame.
2) The problem of Near East conflicts is that those with skin in the game have been sacrified for the sake of the principles of those with no skin in the game.
medium.com/incerto/peace-…
medium.com/incerto/peace-…
Where a 100% left wing crowd agreed with my message:
+ Localism, bottom-up
+ Statism is rent seeking by insiders, academics, & cronies
+ No enterprise without #Skininthegame
+ No abstract scale-free universalism
A different reaction than the one by the statist-militarist "left"
+ Localism, bottom-up
+ Statism is rent seeking by insiders, academics, & cronies
+ No enterprise without #Skininthegame
+ No abstract scale-free universalism
A different reaction than the one by the statist-militarist "left"
2) These "leftists" even agreed that":
The central state ends up being controlled by lobbyists
The tort system outperforms centralized regulation: EPA was owned by Monsanto (retrospective bribe/hiring former regulators)
Banks subjected to bailouts shd have government salaries
The central state ends up being controlled by lobbyists
The tort system outperforms centralized regulation: EPA was owned by Monsanto (retrospective bribe/hiring former regulators)
Banks subjected to bailouts shd have government salaries
3) Many are actually IN FAVOR of having "pundits" inflict risks on others with impunity": those are members of the bureaucratic state.
Lawrence Summers @LHSummers EXPLICITLY opposed Skin in the Game in favor of "risk analysis" (debate in Las Vegas).
Lawrence Summers @LHSummers EXPLICITLY opposed Skin in the Game in favor of "risk analysis" (debate in Las Vegas).
Mr Gary Kasparov, @Kasparov63, I am currently in North Lebanon as I am writing these lines. Would you agree to come LIVE here if Assad is removed?
Yes/No please.
I am really fed up with bullshitters who don't pay a price to the consequences of their actions.
#SkinintheGame
Yes/No please.
I am really fed up with bullshitters who don't pay a price to the consequences of their actions.
#SkinintheGame
Mr @Kasparov63 fails logical thinking/meta at many levels.
He derives his "expertise" & fame not from intellectual contribution or risk wizardry, but from moving w/ B&W pieces.
So we are entitled to wonder abt transferability of such knowledge to risk.
He derives his "expertise" & fame not from intellectual contribution or risk wizardry, but from moving w/ B&W pieces.
So we are entitled to wonder abt transferability of such knowledge to risk.
Again, I have NOTHING against chess players. Some have done great things (Nick Patterson, cc: @iosif_lazaridis), many traders, etc.
But I have pbm allowing someone who is JUST a chess player to both fail elementary reasoning & use chess for credibility.
But I have pbm allowing someone who is JUST a chess player to both fail elementary reasoning & use chess for credibility.
Karl Popper, in his Open Society, describes to a "T" the crowd of unelected patronizing "experts" who want to run the lives of people and call those who oppose them "populists". Beautiful Plato vs Socrates passage. 
2) The biggest irony is that what Soros calls his "Open Society" activity is about as un-Popperian as it gets.
More Popper on the IYIs, the nudgers, the Platonic "experts".
Even gun control...
Even gun control...
1) We now have to face the fact that what is called "social science" and "evidence based" is scientifically shown to be equivalent to "bullshit vending". Except less elegant, of course.
Which brings us back to ancestral heuristics, #Lindy, #SkinintheGame
Which brings us back to ancestral heuristics, #Lindy, #SkinintheGame
2) 2 ½ years ago I proved MATHEMATICALLY p-values need to be lowered by at least 1 order of magnitude.
Now @BrianNosek et al, 75 authors mysteriously realize that p-values need to be lowered by.... 1 order of magnitude. List includes of course a bunch of Harvards I insulted.
Now @BrianNosek et al, 75 authors mysteriously realize that p-values need to be lowered by.... 1 order of magnitude. List includes of course a bunch of Harvards I insulted.
3) The REPLICATION CRISIS a VINDICATION for citizens SICK & TIRED of the Harvards w/a sense of entitlement treating practitioners as immature pple lost without their "science" when it is STATISTICALLY shown Harvards are no better than Ms Bré, fortune teller.
1) The NYT vs #SkinInTheGame.
It is very dangerous to favor those good at explaining but not understanding over people good at understanding but not explaining.
It is very dangerous to favor those good at explaining but not understanding over people good at understanding but not explaining.
2) Traditionally those "communicators" good at explaining are the charlatans, BS Vendors...
medium.com/incerto/surgeo…
medium.com/incerto/surgeo…
3) The Propaganda Times (formerly kn0wn as NYT) article misses that those who can't do can't do for a reason, an epistemological reason: they often know the wrong things.
So we make pple who know the wrong things teach the wrong things for the sake of "pedagogy". This is fraud.
So we make pple who know the wrong things teach the wrong things for the sake of "pedagogy". This is fraud.
Statistically flawed statement: no such claims can be made under high variance power law.
#SkinintheGame: if @paulkrugman had his own $ at risk, he would have been blowup on bitcoin up >10^4% & eliminated from the ecology... or eliminated from the ecology before even bitcoin...
#SkinintheGame: if @paulkrugman had his own $ at risk, he would have been blowup on bitcoin up >10^4% & eliminated from the ecology... or eliminated from the ecology before even bitcoin...
From work/discussion with @financequant: BTC doesn't even have a variance, steep power law.
3) To simplify, this is the #FooledbyRandomness effect: @paulkrugman is pontificating from NOISE, not signal, and the first thing one should teach students is to learn to make a difference between noise and signal.
1/
I think @Noahpinion is basically arguing that because America is made up of whites (baseline crime rate) & blacks (5x white crime rate), adding illegal aliens (1.5x white crime rate) lowers the average RATE of crime by diluting the black population, even as it increases crime
I think @Noahpinion is basically arguing that because America is made up of whites (baseline crime rate) & blacks (5x white crime rate), adding illegal aliens (1.5x white crime rate) lowers the average RATE of crime by diluting the black population, even as it increases crime
@Noahpinion 2/
...at least, this is the only explanation that squares @Noahpinion 's statement that "illegal aliens lower crime" with the FBI crime stats.
Noah, is this a fair understanding of your position vis-a-vis how illegals affect crime in Germany and in the US?
...at least, this is the only explanation that squares @Noahpinion 's statement that "illegal aliens lower crime" with the FBI crime stats.
Noah, is this a fair understanding of your position vis-a-vis how illegals affect crime in Germany and in the US?
@Noahpinion 3/
I agree with Noah here - the more you dilute African populations, the more the crime falls.
We could add 20 million Hispanics and lower it a small bit, or 10 million Swiss and lower it a LOT.
I agree with Noah here - the more you dilute African populations, the more the crime falls.
We could add 20 million Hispanics and lower it a small bit, or 10 million Swiss and lower it a LOT.
My lecktchur on #skininthegame: No guts no glory, no risk no victory,
adapted from Racine: " A vaincre sans péril on triomphe sans gloire", itself adapted from Seneca:
Ignominiam iudicat gladiator cum inferiore componi et scit eum sine gloria uinci qui sine periculo uincitur...
adapted from Racine: " A vaincre sans péril on triomphe sans gloire", itself adapted from Seneca:
Ignominiam iudicat gladiator cum inferiore componi et scit eum sine gloria uinci qui sine periculo uincitur...
I mean Corneille
Trishank @trishankkarthik summarized the tawk in a series of tweets: just note that I prefaced (par.) "as a scholar I don't want to a good speaker, good speakers are usually charlatans"
CHAMPAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGNE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Monsanto lost the trial.
It is not about Glyphosate. It's that the manipulation of science by corporations, the bullying of scientists does not pay!
Monsanto lost the trial.
It is not about Glyphosate. It's that the manipulation of science by corporations, the bullying of scientists does not pay!
They didn't just lose a case. They lost another 100.
Now I will go after the shills who contacted NYU.
Now I will go after the shills who contacted NYU.
Sweet victory....
It is particularly powerful that the legal system (torts) protects citizens, while regulators are in collusion w/industry: the EPA/FDA let Monsanto ghostwrite their rules. Regulators are bribed by industry as they get hired later as payback.
#SkinInTheGame
It is particularly powerful that the legal system (torts) protects citizens, while regulators are in collusion w/industry: the EPA/FDA let Monsanto ghostwrite their rules. Regulators are bribed by industry as they get hired later as payback.
#SkinInTheGame
The thing holding people back from education that would give them a high paying job is:
a. It’s expensive. (Yes loans exist, but)
b. It’s incredibly risky to rack up huge loans. What if it doesn’t work out?
Solution: Let institutions (schools) hold the risk #skininthegame
a. It’s expensive. (Yes loans exist, but)
b. It’s incredibly risky to rack up huge loans. What if it doesn’t work out?
Solution: Let institutions (schools) hold the risk #skininthegame
You would be amazed at how quickly schools would improve if they only got paid tuition when students are successful
As a student you only have one shot, and very limited information around careers/job markets. Student loans could financially ruin you *forever*.
Institutions have resources to research job markets very thoroughly and portfolio theory.
Institutions have resources to research job markets very thoroughly and portfolio theory.
Imbeciles are attacking @RonPaul on "racism" (from a gaffe) when in fact there is NOTHING racist in his political/economic program.
This is called "bigoteering", exploiting an error to demonize.
Charlatans focus on what people *say* not what they *mean*.
medium.com/incerto/the-fa…
This is called "bigoteering", exploiting an error to demonize.
Charlatans focus on what people *say* not what they *mean*.
medium.com/incerto/the-fa…
bigoteering: coined by @tferriss
I coined pedophrasty, etc.
I coined pedophrasty, etc.
The idea of #SkininTheGame: watch what people do not what they (or their staffers) say.
Ron Paul opposed every war. Unlike these virtue signaling frauds who caused wars.
Ron Paul opposed every war. Unlike these virtue signaling frauds who caused wars.
What intellectuals don't get about MIGRATION is the ethical notion of SYMMETRY:
OPEN BORDERS work if and only if the number of pple who want to go from EU/US to Africa/LatinAmer equals Africans/Latin Amer who want to move to EU/US
Silver Rule in #SkinInTheGame
Gabish?
OPEN BORDERS work if and only if the number of pple who want to go from EU/US to Africa/LatinAmer equals Africans/Latin Amer who want to move to EU/US
Silver Rule in #SkinInTheGame
Gabish?
2) Controlled immigration is based on the symmetry that someone brings in at least as much as he/she gets out. And the ethics of the immigrant is to defend the system as payback, not mess it up.
Uncontrolled immigration has all the attributes of invasions.
Uncontrolled immigration has all the attributes of invasions.
3) As a Christian Lebanese, saw the nightmare of uncontrolled immigration of Palestinians which caused the the civil war.
& as a part-time resident of N. Lebanon, I am seeing the effect of Syrian migration on the place.
So I despise these virtue-signaling open-borders imbeciles.
& as a part-time resident of N. Lebanon, I am seeing the effect of Syrian migration on the place.
So I despise these virtue-signaling open-borders imbeciles.
If employees of UBS knew how to run simulations, they wouldn't be employees of UBS, but customers of the Private Banking group of UBS. How can't people think in 1 ½ order effects?
Giving Germany a 25% chance of winning is a very arrogant statement, it is equivalent to giving Germany ~100% chance of making it to the semi-final.
Don't listen to bank research pple with no #SkinintheGame who talk about probability.
Don't listen to bank research pple with no #SkinintheGame who talk about probability.
Very similar to elections. Under high variance, you go closer to 1/n probability per team, where n is the number of teams, with minor variations (except for the very bad teams such as Saudi Barbaria).
The more uncertainty, the more distributed the bets.
arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351…
The more uncertainty, the more distributed the bets.
arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351…
1) Religious statements are not epistemic (scientific, literal) claims, but risk-survival heuristics under incomplete understanding. Populations with the right risk heuristics survive. Others perish.
2) Christianity has a built-in separation church/state.
#SkinintheGame
2) Christianity has a built-in separation church/state.
#SkinintheGame
For those who don't get that Christianity is about church!= state
medium.com/incerto/we-don…
medium.com/incerto/we-don…
Harris @SamHarrisOrg: style & content of the charlatan.
1 Arguments entirely strawman; engages in mocking for effect.
2 Imposture "neuroscientist" when he is just a journalist/writer: would a university/lab hire him as junior faculty in *neuroscience*?
1 Arguments entirely strawman; engages in mocking for effect.
2 Imposture "neuroscientist" when he is just a journalist/writer: would a university/lab hire him as junior faculty in *neuroscience*?
A light sentence is not sufficient.
Under Hammurabi's code, someone making a false accusation should bear the same penalty as if he were the perpetrator.
nyp.st/2tlIrz6 via @nypost
Under Hammurabi's code, someone making a false accusation should bear the same penalty as if he were the perpetrator.
nyp.st/2tlIrz6 via @nypost
A false accusation of rape has the side effect of inducing skepticism, causing genuine accusations to be taken less seriously. You are also harming the true victims.
EDUCATION.
Distilling the conversation with @bryan_caplan hosted by @tylercowen
1) There has been a traditional separation between:
+ "liberal education" for free men, (liber), who didn't work for a living, &
+"technical education", for those who labor.
Distilling the conversation with @bryan_caplan hosted by @tylercowen
1) There has been a traditional separation between:
+ "liberal education" for free men, (liber), who didn't work for a living, &
+"technical education", for those who labor.
2) For instance, mathematics as taught for "liberal" education, was theoretical mind exercise. Euclid's theorem was never used in building.
Meanwhile builders (parts of guilds with trade secrets) were using their own heuristic, richer, geometry. (see #Antifragile)
Meanwhile builders (parts of guilds with trade secrets) were using their own heuristic, richer, geometry. (see #Antifragile)
3) The Anglo-Saxon world conflated the two, with aristocrat-envy:
+ Education to be civilized. (Literature, philosophy, poetry, abstract math, history, stamp collecting, etc.)
+ Education to learn to do things. (Engineering, medicine, accounting, law, belly dancing, plumbing)
+ Education to be civilized. (Literature, philosophy, poetry, abstract math, history, stamp collecting, etc.)
+ Education to learn to do things. (Engineering, medicine, accounting, law, belly dancing, plumbing)
A prediction is wrong only if it costs you something.
A prediction is right only if it makes you something.
The rest is tawk.
#skininthegame.
A prediction is right only if it makes you something.
The rest is tawk.
#skininthegame.
2) In other words, the predictions that matter are those with a large payoff and little costs.
If you predict what other people are predicting, you get nothing (but a nice paper track record). Monoculture works for blabbering academics, not traders & people in the real world.
If you predict what other people are predicting, you get nothing (but a nice paper track record). Monoculture works for blabbering academics, not traders & people in the real world.
For instance, for a linear payoff, if you predict an event priced at 1% probability, you can be wrong 99% of the time.
For the same probability w/ a convex payoff, you can be wrong 999 times out of 1000 and still do very well.
For the same probability w/ a convex payoff, you can be wrong 999 times out of 1000 and still do very well.
THREAD
1) We are facing a complete and *sudden* rewriting of history using DNA, like paternity tests, disturbs linguists, historians, (recall the Mary Beard affair), archeologists, and Arabists.
theatlantic.com/science/archiv…
1) We are facing a complete and *sudden* rewriting of history using DNA, like paternity tests, disturbs linguists, historians, (recall the Mary Beard affair), archeologists, and Arabists.
theatlantic.com/science/archiv…
2) @PZalloua (Reich collab) showed Leb Shiites were of Phoenician ancestry, caused a shock, but now slowing building a Canaanite identity.
I found from his databse that there is ~3% Arab genes in Lebanon & West. Syria.
Arabist Historians s.a. Salibi are largely fabricators.
I found from his databse that there is ~3% Arab genes in Lebanon & West. Syria.
Arabist Historians s.a. Salibi are largely fabricators.
3) The other interesting "hard science" discovery is that a) Modern Greeks are the same as ancient Greeks, b) Greeks are largely Anatolian, c) Canaanites are largely Anatolian.
Minority rule chapter in #skininthegame : languages travel, genes not so much.
Minority rule chapter in #skininthegame : languages travel, genes not so much.
"Start by being warm, pleasant, & generous w/every person you meet;
but if someone tries to exercise power over you, exercise power over him;
& if he messes w/you, remember to keep messing w/him long after he has forgotten about it".
Silver Rule of Fat Tony in #SkinInTheGame
but if someone tries to exercise power over you, exercise power over him;
& if he messes w/you, remember to keep messing w/him long after he has forgotten about it".
Silver Rule of Fat Tony in #SkinInTheGame
Sorry, correction for typo:
"long after he has forgotten about it"
shoud be
"long after he fuhgodaboudit"
"long after he has forgotten about it"
shoud be
"long after he fuhgodaboudit"
3) Doggedly determined revenge, particularly when delayed (and unexpected), is not a tit-for-tat to prevent repetition; it is to show others what to expect.
Mediterraneans like revenge to be "a dish you try to only eat when cold".
Mediterraneans like revenge to be "a dish you try to only eat when cold".
Thread on what I took from @SPressfield's book "The War of Art" (~30 things) - relevant to those in creative endeavours, and for those who procrastinate too much
1- “the enemy is a very good teacher”
2- You aren’t one day cured of fear, every day we must fight it
A thread on Zero to One by @peterthiel - things I took/learned from the book (~100 things)
1-Every moment in business only happens once. The next Zuckerberg won’t make Facebook, nor the next Gates make Microsoft. If you are copying these guys, you aren’t learning from them.
2- Every time we create something NEW, we go from 0 to 1.
1) You can't BS w/history.
Two Groups of refugees came to Lebanon. 1) Armenians & 2) Palestinians.
Armenians tried to give more than they took.
Palestinians tried to "liberate" their land by taking over Lebanon & exterminate Christians as "Crusaders/representatives of West".
Two Groups of refugees came to Lebanon. 1) Armenians & 2) Palestinians.
Armenians tried to give more than they took.
Palestinians tried to "liberate" their land by taking over Lebanon & exterminate Christians as "Crusaders/representatives of West".
2) It was a declared objective for Arafat that "the road to Jerusalem goes through (Maronite stronghold) Jounieh".
3) In 100 years of Armenian presence in Lebanon, all you hear are reports of an industrious community that tried to help.
As to Palestinians' model: biting the hands that fed them HAS BEEN their modus operandi.
They did the same in Koweit, siding w/Saddam against their hosts.
As to Palestinians' model: biting the hands that fed them HAS BEEN their modus operandi.
They did the same in Koweit, siding w/Saddam against their hosts.
During 50s-to 70s, "intellectual"=support for Stalinism, Maoism,Trotskysm (or Arabism). Evidence of camps/murders was ignored for > decades.
Today if an "intellectual" expresses opinions that are vaguely NEUTRAL abt Trump, his career is destroyed.
I despise intellektchuals.
Today if an "intellectual" expresses opinions that are vaguely NEUTRAL abt Trump, his career is destroyed.
I despise intellektchuals.
2) When John Gray supported Thatcher's economics, he was treated like a serial killer by his peers. Later (as may happen w/Trump), academics started to rally to her, as results started to show.
But NOBODY apologized to him for harm done.
Intellektuals hate independent pple.
But NOBODY apologized to him for harm done.
Intellektuals hate independent pple.
3) Employed intellectuals, professional academics, and other slaves are rarely in love with thought & ideas.
They are primarily in love with Orthodoxy.
They are primarily in love with Orthodoxy.
