Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Jan 15, 2018 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1) You can't BS w/history.
Two Groups of refugees came to Lebanon. 1) Armenians & 2) Palestinians.
Armenians tried to give more than they took.
Palestinians tried to "liberate" their land by taking over Lebanon & exterminate Christians as "Crusaders/representatives of West".
2) It was a declared objective for Arafat that "the road to Jerusalem goes through (Maronite stronghold) Jounieh".
3) In 100 years of Armenian presence in Lebanon, all you hear are reports of an industrious community that tried to help.
As to Palestinians' model: biting the hands that fed them HAS BEEN their modus operandi.
They did the same in Koweit, siding w/Saddam against their hosts.
4) I am a child of the Lebanese civil war.
Before the war I had been stopped by Palestinian at roadblocks & received gratuitous abuse by their "soldiers" simply because I was a 15 year old Lebanese (Christian). It was common. We were FED up

#Skininthegame not some pseudolib BS.
5) I am tired of people pointing to doctored-up Wikipedia pages of massacres AGAINST Palestinians, downplaying the trigger of first POGROMS (s.a. Damour) BY Palestininans?
Similar to the Syrian war propaganda making it look like Evil gov vs Jihadi Saints.
6) Let me reexplain.

I am a localist, a la Swiss, pro-subsidiarity; pple have the right to self-organize; be neighbors not roommates & let their municipality run its affairs; I am anti repressive top-down universalist system.

Left/Right classifications are for pol-sci idiots.
7a) This anti-abstract, anti-monoscale, and anti-power against citizens and groups, is the theme of the (finally discounted) next book.

amazon.com/Skin-Game-Hidd…
7b) This said I think nobody should get involved into other people's problems unless there is skin in the game.

The Palestinians were victims of overall bad governance.

medium.com/incerto/peace-…
8) The thread started with a "cool" remark.

So being on the "left" and "pro-Palestinian" means condoning ethnic cleansing/ extermination, even genocide of Christian minorities in the Levant (not counting the Allawites and Shiites).

These are typical "left" wing Arabist values
9) Meanwhile there has to be a minority rule harming the Palestinians by contagion. They displace independent Palestinians such as @saifedean (libertarian/localist) who, as libertarians, have for ethical mission to be model citizens.

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More from @nntaleb

Sep 29, 2018
Someone finally got it. They are all weak (both sides), insecure, lacking in grandor, and it’s a shame we are dragged into this s***t. America deserves much better.
This is not a job interview for auditor in chief at the local utility company. This is a lifetime apptmnt as a justice in the Supreme Court. It entails tough decisions. Very tough decisions.

Gabish?
The only person who showed spine inthe episode was Lindsey Graham. I hate him. He is a neocon. He is an interventionist. But he showed spine.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 24, 2018
Where a 100% left wing crowd agreed with my message:

+ Localism, bottom-up
+ Statism is rent seeking by insiders, academics, & cronies
+ No enterprise without #Skininthegame
+ No abstract scale-free universalism

A different reaction than the one by the statist-militarist "left"
2) These "leftists" even agreed that":

The central state ends up being controlled by lobbyists

The tort system outperforms centralized regulation: EPA was owned by Monsanto (retrospective bribe/hiring former regulators)

Banks subjected to bailouts shd have government salaries
3) Many are actually IN FAVOR of having "pundits" inflict risks on others with impunity": those are members of the bureaucratic state.

Lawrence Summers @LHSummers EXPLICITLY opposed Skin in the Game in favor of "risk analysis" (debate in Las Vegas).

Read 4 tweets
Sep 19, 2018
MISREPRESENTATION of STATISTICAL PICTURE

Journos @FranckGenauzeauare clueless & cherrypicking. Lebanon is currently greening, >150,000 additional Cedar trees at higher level plus rising treeline.

The planet is undergoing yuuge reforestation.

This demoralizes environmentalists
Pictures of Leb in 1900 vs today. Clear reforestation.

1) Cedar story is missing the success of new growth across the mountain.
2) @FranckGenauze has never heard of cherry picking/sensationalism/sucker alarmism.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 16, 2018
I thought chess players would think in more than one step. Before arguing whether "fascists" should be museled,

How do you know if someone is "fascist" if you don't let him express his opinions?

...Or the best way to exercise fascism is to call people fascists to shut them up.
To answer the usual idiot bringing up Popper

muzzled
Read 6 tweets
Sep 16, 2018
SUNDAY MATH RIDDLE, courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine.
OK, there is a theorem for the proof of convergence.
Herschfelds Convergence Theorem

mathworld.wolfram.com/HerschfeldsCon…
As to numerical tricks
Read 4 tweets
Sep 14, 2018
Why did the Crisis of 2008 Happen?
My report *then*, to the Obama commission. All these talkers are still clueless about the reasons.

academia.edu/37409070/Why_D…
2) The very angry Youtube version of the paper.

The version of "Why did the Crisis of 2008 Happen?" on @researchersone:

researchers.one/article/2018-0…
Read 5 tweets

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