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Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
@nntaleb
Flaneur: probability (philosophy), probability (mathematics), probability (real life), Phoenician wine, deadlifts & dead languages. Greco-Levantine. #RWRI
zensky.crypto Profile picture hgtp://Greg Kalus Profile picture A H Profile picture Wong Saang Profile picture Boecker, Hartmut Profile picture 7 subscribed
Sep 29, 2018 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Someone finally got it. They are all weak (both sides), insecure, lacking in grandor, and it’s a shame we are dragged into this s***t. America deserves much better. This is not a job interview for auditor in chief at the local utility company. This is a lifetime apptmnt as a justice in the Supreme Court. It entails tough decisions. Very tough decisions.

Gabish?
Sep 24, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Where a 100% left wing crowd agreed with my message:

+ Localism, bottom-up
+ Statism is rent seeking by insiders, academics, & cronies
+ No enterprise without #Skininthegame
+ No abstract scale-free universalism

A different reaction than the one by the statist-militarist "left" 2) These "leftists" even agreed that":

The central state ends up being controlled by lobbyists

The tort system outperforms centralized regulation: EPA was owned by Monsanto (retrospective bribe/hiring former regulators)

Banks subjected to bailouts shd have government salaries
Sep 19, 2018 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
MISREPRESENTATION of STATISTICAL PICTURE

Journos @FranckGenauzeauare clueless & cherrypicking. Lebanon is currently greening, >150,000 additional Cedar trees at higher level plus rising treeline.

The planet is undergoing yuuge reforestation.

This demoralizes environmentalists Pictures of Leb in 1900 vs today. Clear reforestation.

Sep 16, 2018 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
I thought chess players would think in more than one step. Before arguing whether "fascists" should be museled,

How do you know if someone is "fascist" if you don't let him express his opinions?

...Or the best way to exercise fascism is to call people fascists to shut them up. To answer the usual idiot bringing up Popper

Sep 16, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
SUNDAY MATH RIDDLE, courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine. OK, there is a theorem for the proof of convergence.
Herschfelds Convergence Theorem

mathworld.wolfram.com/HerschfeldsCon…
Sep 14, 2018 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Why did the Crisis of 2008 Happen?
My report *then*, to the Obama commission. All these talkers are still clueless about the reasons.

academia.edu/37409070/Why_D… 2) The very angry Youtube version of the paper.

Sep 12, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Karl Popper, in his Open Society, describes to a "T" the crowd of unelected patronizing "experts" who want to run the lives of people and call those who oppose them "populists". Beautiful Plato vs Socrates passage. 2) The biggest irony is that what Soros calls his "Open Society" activity is about as un-Popperian as it gets.
Sep 12, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Exercise in combinatorics.
1t step, use the English alphabet, 26 letters + space, ?,!,@,&, for a total of 30. 140 characters. Treat lower and upper case as equivalent.

Second step, Markov Chain. add a ( under the condition that it closes before a period and that it closes. Elias, @QifaNabki the literary name is trigintuple or triacontad (30-tuple) in a 140 sized multiset, which should be (if you don't start with a space) quite sizeable.
Sep 9, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Principles of Politics under Complexity

(Thread) Principle 11:

No public institution or agency should be created without an expiration date.
Sep 4, 2018 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
TheNewYorker disinviting Bannon means the following:

1- You have no right to present your own ideas lest they vary from those as presented by the media,

or

2- You have no right to present your own ideas lest they surprise people as less dangerous than what they expected. And the smear with "death camp" narrative migh be actually debunked (along with the ethics of @Xeni) should one hear from Bannon expressing his own ideas.

Aug 29, 2018 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
1) We now have to face the fact that what is called "social science" and "evidence based" is scientifically shown to be equivalent to "bullshit vending". Except less elegant, of course.

Which brings us back to ancestral heuristics, #Lindy, #SkinintheGame 2) 2 ½ years ago I proved MATHEMATICALLY p-values need to be lowered by at least 1 order of magnitude.

Now @BrianNosek et al, 75 authors mysteriously realize that p-values need to be lowered by.... 1 order of magnitude. List includes of course a bunch of Harvards I insulted.
Aug 25, 2018 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
The real difference in politics isn't the "right" vs "left" gradation but rather "Greek" vs "Roman".

+ Greek = puts theory above practice
+ Roman= puts practice above theory

Be Roman. Now. BTW, Byzantines were diehard Roman. Greek was just a language.
Aug 25, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
In the absence of @CutTheKnotMath, a Saturday morning workout he would have liked (from Dan Sitaru). OK, Saturday workout in remembrance of @CutTheKnotMath but not sure Maestro was crazy about gamma functions.

cc: @SvetlanaBogom13
Aug 15, 2018 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Any work you do in the comfort of a routine risks being taken over by a robot. Routine is effortless. Most humans, alas, prefer to expend physical, never intellectual energy. Creating requires much, much more effort.

Aug 15, 2018 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
San Francisco: tatooed millennials with the wrong type of attitude problem, overcrowding in overpriced tenements. And (aggressively) vegetarian.
Aug 13, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Ole Peters quietly informing nudgeboy @R_Thaler that his understanding of his own subject matter (probabilistic decision making) is highly deficient. Why Nudge and Behavioral Economics are PseudoScience, a summary
Aug 12, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Next step: Business Schools; ban teaching by nonpractitioners. For some reason B-School Profs (living on charities) think they are smarter (less "irrational") than real world risk takers when they are clueless about the math (ergodicity+fat tails).

Flaws by finance prof (@WGoetzmann) who think TBS is an "airport book"
Aug 10, 2018 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
CHAMPAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGNE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Monsanto lost the trial.
It is not about Glyphosate. It's that the manipulation of science by corporations, the bullying of scientists does not pay! They didn't just lose a case. They lost another 100.

Now I will go after the shills who contacted NYU.
Aug 7, 2018 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Thread of pple on twitter who understand statistics (and the notion of average) much much better than the @nytimes : life expectancy = 40 means a lot of infant mortality, not that people didn't live long.

Please, please, please avoid the NY Times. Please. Simply, if 40% died in childbirth (or very young, which is about historical number), 50% died at 60, and 10% died at 92, the "average" life expectation would be ~40.

Childhood mortalily hugely skews the average.
Aug 7, 2018 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
Douma, most beautiful village both architecturally and scenically.
Former Byzantine health spot.

Church built in 1610. Tomb ~ 600 (priest of the goddess of health)
Jul 30, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1) The point I stressed is that, unlike genetics that is based on hard science, we should ignore traditional linguistics with its"on the fly" classifications, particularly the horribly sorry state of Semitic linguistics. 2) @iosif_lazaridis mentioned how older, "just so" taxonomies turned out to not map to the trees made *on the fly* before phylogenetics (sequncng)

My bone is tagging Levantine as *branch of*Arabic as proposed by @PhDniX and @lameensouag rather than, the reverse or *laterality*