This low in BNF should hold, gap support. Let's see
Checking the support
Bought the support, 28200 calls, full amount SL
Buying at day lows does not need nerves of steel, just an understanding of support and resistance. Entry is a function of process, not a function of courage/dum
SL for the 28200 calls now at 9. Either I lose Rs.3 or see where this bounce takes us. Expecting a bounce till 28115 as of now
SL to 11 for the 28200 calls #nolosstrade . I continuously do this on expiry days, guarding my money. When one large move comes, that's enough for the day
SL triggerd, trade closed
Understood the action correctly, sadly trailing Sl got hit, As of now cannot maintain above 28115
How the whole day played out
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This is where the first short was, then shorted more on the way down. Due to high vol, starting with 1 lot and then punching volumes if the trade goes in my favour. Else would have been out with SL on a single contract . High VIX --> different strategies
Seeing quite a few msgs on twitter how one bought stocks at 2008 high , stocks went down 80% and then they sold at 5x of buying price . Funny no one bought DLF , Unitech, Suzlon, Rcom etc . Don't jump into buy on this survivorship bias based stories
The amount of mutual fund money which flowed into the bourses based upon the #MutualFundsSahiHai slogan lifted all stocks . Such a liquidity flow might not be repeated in the future if the MFs now take a big hit .
If you want to buy for long term as an investor , wait for the PE ratios to drop further . Sharing a study which I did long ago , but the principles still hold true
This is the crux of all complicated option selling strategies . Nothing so simple can work across all market conditions .
This model has a problem . It's assumed that IV will mean revert , as it has done since 2015 . But what if the volatility regime changes ? IV is not a bounded indicator which has an upper and a lower ceiling. What if IV continues to go up ?
Volatility has 3 characteristics . Persistency , cyclicity and mean reversion .