Thread by @machineiv

Okay. As someone who grew up in a destitute town that used to thrive on mining and collapsed years ago, I need to briefly fucking re-litigate 2016 because I feel like people STILL don't goddamn get it.

Bill Clinton devastated a lot of these communities. So there's a ton of resentment there. But let's be perfectly clear: NOT ALL OF THAT WAS BY DIRECTLY DESTROYING FUCKING JOBS. So you can't just say, "but he didn't ACTUALLY destroy their jobs." Because fuck you.

A lot of these communities were already suffering when Bill Clinton came along. But he threw salt in their wounds with things like the welfare reform bill and the criminal justice bill. This took already hurt communities and devastated them.

Imagine, if you will, a town with a few hundred people. You're on food stamps. That's how you eat. Yet, Bill Clinton cut your food stamps because *checks notes* you're not applying for enough jobs. Even though you've applied at every business within a two hour drive.

There are a lot of conservatives in these areas with really stupid, regressive opinions. YOU DON'T HAVE TO APPEAL TO THOSE PEOPLE. Just fucking ignore them. Address legitimately hurt people with legitimate grievances, and you'll be fine.

Hillary Clinton lobbied for a lot of the things that specifically hurt those communities. If you're in a town of 500 which is mostly held up by automotive manufacture and the plant closed because of NAFTA? You don't like Clintons.

"But NAFTA also made jobs!" SO FUCKING WHAT? That's such a liberal point of ignorance. That town of 500 doesn't give a single goddamn shit about the jobs NAFTA created when NAFTA turned their community into a ghost town with 25% unemployment.

This is why liberal "compromise" is so fucking condescending. It tells those people starving in those ghost towns that they're backwards and racist for not promoting the exact same people and policies that starved them.

Affected person: "Um, the Clintons are why my dad is dead and my mom can't walk."

Liberals: "But her emails hur hur"

FUCK YOU.

And this exact goddamned logic applies to non-white communities, too. You know why Muslims in Michigan didn't come out hard for Clinton? Gosh because their fucking families have been devastated by Clinton bombs. Don't you DARE tell them they need to compromise.

You say it's privilege to not vote for a third way centrist. But you're not the people who suffer and die because of third way centrism. And you chide the victims for not promoting their own suffering. THAT is privilege.

Hillary Clinton DID propose an aid package for mining communities. BUT:

A) She didn't advertise it.

B) It was focused on shit like protecting miners' pensions. Many of these communities don't have any miners left.

C) Bill Clinton would be in charge of it.

I lived in a coal town. Do you know how many of the destitute, suffering people there would benefit from a bill to protect coal miner pensions and expanded health insurance options? Exactly fucking none. Because almost all of them have already died.

"COAL ISN'T COMING BACK YOU FILTHY HICKS!"

Jesus motherfucking christ we know that. Everyone goddamn knows that. Nobody worth appealing to thinks coal jobs are coming back you are worse than fucking flat earth vaccine hating climate change deniers you disingenuous pricks.

If your grandpa worked in coal and you're 25 and voted for Bernie, YOU DON'T THINK THE SOLUTION IS FINDING A WAY TO GET YOURSELF BACK IN THE COAL MINES. Liberals need to stop pretending that's a thing.

When I left Ohio the last time, my Obamacare bill was 30% of my income. And it would have only benefited me if I had a $50,000+ hospital bill. Maybe, just maybe, nobody thinks bullshit third way means tested social programs will work because they don't work.

"But Joe Lieberman would have blocked..."

FUCK YOU. If you think these people you're telling us to vote for are so fucking smart, so fucking qualified, so fucking fourth dimensional chess master that we have no other choice, they can come up with a solution.

If your grandfather was the last person in your family with a mining job and he died in 1991, maybe you don't have much sympathy for people who won't shut up about helping mine workers find new jobs. This should be painfully obvious.

If the only gains your family ever made were through collective action and unions, maybe someone who bragged in their memoirs about breaking a picket line on her first date with her union buster husband isn't gonna get much traction with your family.

The people in these communities don't need to save five goddamned percent on their health insurance. They don't need job programs for displaced miners. They don't need student loan forgiveness for people who found startups.

TOO LITTLE TOO FUCKING LATE.

When we say Medicare For All would work in these rural communities, we're not being glib. They don't want cheaper health insurance. THEY CANNOT AFFORD HEALTH INSURANCE. Most of them opted out of their employer plans because they were too much.

Stop asking these people to "compromise" by voting exactly for the things that hurt them. That's not compromise. Listen to them. Don't listen to the racists demanding we go back to the gold standard. Listen to the young people who are saying what you're proposing won't help.

When the young people in these rural communities tell you the ACA is not viable for them, stop calling them "bros." Stop calling them racist. Stop trying to tell them how ACTUALLY, it's good for them. You're no better than mansplainers. Worse, even.

"I can't afford $500 a month under the ACA, I only make $800 a month. I'm dying of a chronic illness right now."

"LOOK YOU FUCKING KU KLUX KLANNER BERNIE BRO, IF YOU JUST VOTED MORE DEMOCRATS IT MIGHT BE $450 TEN YEARS FROM NOW ADOLF SARANDON. CHECK YOUR PRIVILEGE."

Fucking listen. Take them seriously. They know what they're struggling through. They know their day to day concerns far better than someone who only ever interacts with that area for four-hour photoshoots during campaign season.

You HAVE to listen. You HAVE to take them seriously. Because you CANNOT shame them into voting for the things that hurt them. Don't tell them those things don't hurt. Don't tell them their pain is invalid, or should be ignored.

"Right now, my family is starving. We're skipping meals, and might not make rent this month. I'm not voting for anyone who isn't willing to help meaningfully change that."

"YOU DON'T CARE ABOUT QPOC. ACTUALLY THIS STATISTIC SAYS YOUR STATE IS FINE."

Come the fuck on.

I lived in a district that went twice for Obama. And it got fewer votes for Trump than Romney or McCain. But so few people voted for Clinton that it swung for Trump.

The people who stayed home didn't stay home because they hate black people.

YOU DON'T NEED TO APPEAL TO BIGOTS TO WIN THOSE COMMUNITIES. They proudly voted Obama, because they thought Obama was listening. He wasn't. He's burned that bridge for the Democrats. They need to reach out, genuinely, honestly, listen, and offer real help.

"BUT 40% OF THE PEOPLE THERE ARE RACISTS ACCORDING TO THIS ONE STUDY!"

Okay. Then appeal to the other 60%. It's not that fucking hard.

I talked to a ton of friends and family during the 2016 cycle. Most? They were staying home. A slim few were considering Trump. I couldn't talk them into Clinton. But most shifted Stein or decided to stay home.

These are not people who regularly use Facebook. They're not the target of Russian psyop ads. These are the people you're shitting on when you pretend it was Russia, or shit on the "Bernie Bro" asking why Clinton ignored Michigan and Wisconsin.

When Clinton comes and says she'll offer student loan forgiveness to people who found startups, that matters exactly fucking zero to people who have to struggle and fight tooth and nail to get through community college and come out broke.

And since this is getting reshared and I don't have a Soundcloud rap to share, here's my novel #iHunt, which is a story about monster hunting and economic anxiety. TOPICAL! It's like Supernatural meets Uber, but also about the orgasm gap.

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You want to know how to help those people meaningfully?

UBI. M4A.

Imagine a town of 500 with average income in the $15,000 range, and 25% of them make $0. Now, imagine if they went to $25,000 and 0% were making $0.

INSTANTLY, you get a boom in retail and food service jobs.

"BUT BUT THE GOP WILL CALL THAT SOCIALISM! HALF OF THEM WILL REJECT THAT!"

Um, yes. But that half were already voting GOP. YOU DON'T NEED TO CONVINCE GOP VOTERS. You need to motivate non-voters. Of which half want these things. It's a no-brainer if you know basic math.

You don't need to tip these communities to an overwhelming mandate for socialism. You need to get like... 1-5% more people voting. That's it. And if you don't think a UBI could convince a single percent of unemployed people to vote? Just give up on life. You're useless.

So, let's do math for a second. These places trended toward about 40% voter turnout. Say a community is 500 people. So, 200 voted. Say 60/40 GOP/Dem in this race. So that's 120 GOP votes, 80 Dem votes.

Now, in 2008 the numbers looked more like 60% turnout, with 60/40 Dem/GOP. 180 Dem, 120 GOP. Notice THE GOP NUMBER DIDN'T CHANGE AT ALL IN THESE TWO ELECTIONS.

What can you extrapolate from this? Well, the first thing is that the Dems failed to get people motivated to vote. This should be plainly obvious. The second thing is that there are 120 people who will ALWAYS VOTE GOP.

Now I'm using fairly simple numbers here. But, outside of statistical outliers, Romney, McCain, and Trump got very similar vote totals. This is to say, TRYING TO APPEAL TO GOP VOTERS IS STUPID AND WE SHOULDN'T EVEN BE CONSIDERING IT.

But we have two important groups to address. First, the Dem vote went from 180 to 80. Those 100 people? They voted twice for a black guy but not for Clinton. Gosh I wonder if it's because they're racist. No. The racists were those 120 we're ignoring, remember?

The second important group is the 200 people who didn't vote in the 2008 model. They were joined by the first 100 in the 2016 model. This is more than half the population.

Now, Americans are notorious non-voters. But, in these cases, even a 10% swing matters hugely. In the 2016 model, a 10% swing would have changed everything in that hypothetical district.

In these communities, 25% of people are unemployed or under-employed. 50% have insufficient insurance. If you don't think UBI and M4A could swing a small percentage of these voters, you are so jaded I don't even know why you're reading twitter and not writing poetry in blood.

We don't need to appeal to bigots. We need to appeal to legitimate harm and dissatisfaction. "But Liv!" You say. "These people need to understand their choices affect more than—"

SHHHHHHHHHH stop it.

If your entire political strategy involves demanding people understand that their material pain is insignificant, you will always lose.

"But it's unfair that people are hurt because of their unwillingness to compro—"

SHHHHHHHHH stop it.

Doesn't matter. Is it fair? Probably not. But life isn't fair. If life was fair, you wouldn't need to worry about people being hurt.

IT DOESN'T MATTER THAT IT'S FAIR ALL THAT MATTERS IS WINNING AND MAKING CHANGE.

"If only they understood that—"

SHHHHHHHHH stop it.

No, no, no, no. YOU need to understand that they are individuals. And they're hurting. And you can't chide them into putting off their pain for strangers' sake.

When it all comes down to it, which would you prefer:

1) An unfair situation where some are coddled more than others but everyone is better off.

or 2) A system where everyone's hurt?

Because that's the choice you're making by shaming these people for their (non) votes.

"Why should we coddle racists and sexists who voted Trum—"

SHHHHHHHHH stop it.

WE DON'T NEED TO CODDLE RACISTS AND SEXISTS WHO VOTED TRUMP. We need to address the material concerns of people who aren't comfortable voting in the current system, because neither party addresses those concerns. Those people are a majority group.

You want to talk about the sanctity of democracy? Well, the single largest group of voters isn't at all represented. How fucking fair is that?

And people want to talk about "centering the white working class?" Fuck that. Yes, those areas trend white. But there are non-white people there. And I can tell you, MANY of them fall into that half of people who don't vote. They're working class, almost without exception.

"I don't know why we have to abandon the interests of LGBT—"

SHHHHHHHHH stop it.

There are LGBT people in rural communities. And I can tell you from direct experience, it's FUCKING ROUGH. And LGBT people in those places? They're under no fucking illusion that the Democrats are doing SHIT for them. Because they're not.

So, like, take your promises of tax credits for buying Priuses and your student loan forgiveness for mine workers who take coding classes and shove them up your ass. OFFER REAL SOLUTIONS OR KEEP LOSING. And losing, as you keep telling us, is hurting the entire world.

You want to talk about fucking privilege? Thinking some $30 billion care package or some bullshit moralizing from Hillbilly Elegy is going to help these people. You want to know why people think Democrats are out of touch? I've laid it out pretty clearly here.

"She had a plan!"

IT 👏

FUCKING 👏

WASN'T 👏

GOOD 👏

ENOUGH 👏

TOO 👏

LITTLE 👏

TOO 👏

LATE 👏