For the record, while everyone seems to believe that the number of civilians in #Idlib is close to 3 million, a Damascus source who has been very prescient in the past believes that the actual number may not exceed 1 million.
2-To suggest that 3 Million civilians live in #Idlib is to suggest:
A-That pre-war housing stock & other infrastructure was able to accommodate double the pre-war population
B-Moreover, safe to assume both housing & infrastructure now nowhere near pre-war conditions/capacity
A-That pre-war housing stock & other infrastructure was able to accommodate double the pre-war population
B-Moreover, safe to assume both housing & infrastructure now nowhere near pre-war conditions/capacity
3-In effect, for #Idlib to host 3 Million now compared to 1.2-1.5 pre-war is to assume either a building boom (not war) or construction of massive camps that would host such massive numbers. Yet to see credible images of such camps or investments in the housing stock
4-Note that the suggestion that #Idlib residents doubled from pre-war levels assumes that no one left the province since the war. This is not credible. If Idlib has 3 Million now, then where did the nearly 7 Million in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan come from? None from Idlib?
5-Even though I have not done the Math myself, those who have believe that the maximum number of displaced civilians who had used the busses to enter the province from other cities doesn’t need exceed 200,000 at the most. Would love for someone to prove the above wrong using data
6-Even if the number of those entering the province is double that cited here, and making conservative assumptions about the number who left the province since the war, one is hard pressed to see how the current number can exceed 1 Million
Open for a credible rebuttal to above
Open for a credible rebuttal to above
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