Thread by @EHSANI22

Thread listing Preliminary observations on the announcement of the “Demilitarized Zone” in #Idlib today: What does it mean for Turkey, Russia, Damascus and the armed groups? What is the likely risk/reward calculus for each party? What should we expect going forward? ===>

2– Let’s recap what we seem to know first: A zone 9-12 miles long would be established by Oct. 15. It would contain no heavy weapons or extreme elements of the insurgency (al-Qaeda-linked militants). It would be be patrolled by Turkish and Russian forces

3-First critical point to note is whether this deal will end up securing the highway that passes through Idlib and links the north and south of the country under Govt control together. This was of course one of the strategic aims of Damascus from any #Idlib operation

4-Staying with Damascus, a deal that secures the highway will be seen as short term benefit. But, the deal will also mean a delay in the State’s plan to regain “every inch” of its territory back. Damascus is very wary of letting an insurgency turn into a separatist project

5-Moving on to the armed groups, the deal specifies that the zone will contain no heavy weapons or HTS-AQ-Nusra but that all other armed groups can stay. What we are likely to see therefore is wholesale change of clothing/branding from Nusra to say Zangi/Ahrar/faylaq etc

6-There are various scenarios here:A-Turkey has real control over HTS-AQ-Nusra and hence ability to move them out of the new zone. B- The group makes an agreement with the others to change clothing and rebrand. C-Turkey finds itself unable to keep its side of the deal & AQ stays

7-Regardles of whether HTS-AQ-Nusra dissapears merely optically or for real, this deal is predicated on assumption that all armed groups are going to keep their side of the deal and adhere to Turkish demands to cease all military operations against the Syrian State from this zone

8-When it comes to Turkey, there is little doubt that Erdogan was able to delay/prevent a military operation in #Idlib for now. But, it has to make the trains run on time now. The conduct of the armed groups inside the province is now explicitly the responsibility of Ankara

9-As for Russia, its own military is now officially patrolling a zone with a NATO member. Putin is patient and will see this deal as chipping away at the NATO alliance. All he had to pay for this is to promise a delay in any military operations in #Idlib.

10-The US was of course absent from today's agreement. Washington will of course take credit for putting pressure on Russia to prevent an attack on #Idlib. In reality, both Moscow & Ankara are now the lead foreign capitals in charge

11-Like most previous "deals" in #Syria, time will tell if this "demilitarized zone" agreement is any different than those that preceded it. Implicit in this agreement is the assumption that Erdogan can and will be able to control all these armed men roaming in this province

12-For now however, Erdogan has further cemented his legendary status within the Syrian opposition. He will take personal credit for averting military strikes on the province & this will add to his already very high popularity within most opposition circles