Thread on status of Syrian Opposition post the "demilitarized zone" agreement in #Idlib . Thus far, most commentary has regarded the deal as a win for the Opp since risk of imminent strike on the province has been avoided. But is this deal really a positive for opp? Answer: No=>
2-Let's step back first. This is an Opp that was formed with goal of toppling the State (diplomatic language of Geneva process called it political transition). Nothing short of above was acceptable to this opp. As of yesterday, mere avoidance of strikes is now seen as a win
3-Let's not also forget that from early days of Geneva's political transition talks, the only political activity left now is an attempt to establish constitutional committee. All else has been shelved. Now that we established the general status of the opp, let's discuss this deal
4-In effect, this new deal largely pulls the plug on ability of armed groups to attack the Sy State. Practically speaking, it is no different than any previous freeze/reconciliation deal. The only difference is that Turkey this time made the deal with the Russians on their behalf
5-This deal sets the stage for eliminating the most hardened fighters inside the armed groups. The definition of terrorists will come from Intel agencies according to Turkish FM. And, it is now Turkey's responsibility to remove "terrorists & all heavy weapons" by Nov 10
6-But what the Opp lost also is that they will be forced to give up access to prized highway Syrian State has been deprived of. Indeed, access to M4/M5 highways was one of the strategic aims of #Idlib operations. The state now gained this access without firing a shot
7-Armed men inside #Idlib now are going to have to find themselves a purpose other than stage attacks on State or Army positions. Indeed, in all likelihood, this deal if anything places the opp under a tighter leash than before the deal was announced
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