People overrate Wike as a power-base in the PDP and while I understand that it’s partly due to how vocal he is but also because people assume the PDP is like the APC with power-bases built around single individuals.
And a lot of misconceptions are now being introduced.
That Wike singlehandedly imposed Ali Modu Sheriff on the PDP as Chairman or that he did the same with Uche Secondus is false - and I’m shocked that matters of recent history can be twisted to suit narratives so conveniently.
Ali Modu Sheriff emerged initially by consensus.
If there was any Governor who championed Sheriff for Chairman the most, it was Gov. Fayose - and he didn’t do it alone, all other PDP Govs under the chairmanship of Gov. Mimiko agreed.
Buruji Kashamu was another great champion of Sheriff ab initio, not Gov. Wike.
Sheriff was to be Acting Chairman until a proper convention was conducted and he began to scheme to become substantive chairman.
Most Northern PDP leaders supported him - he held powerful rallies across the North.
All until the week of May 22nd 2016 when he was to be confirmed.
The day before the convention, it emerged that 47 PDP leaders (later 56) were opposed to the planned PH convention where Ali Modu Sheriff was to be named.
Worth mentioning that Gov. Seriake Dickson was one Gov. who staunchly refused to endorse Sheriff becoming substantive chair.
Sheriff was to be confirmed at the PH convention of May 22, 2016 but a parallel convention was ongoing in Abuja on the same day which had bigwigs like Ibrahim Mantu, Jerry Gana, Tanimu Turaki etc.
PH capitulated.
So why didn’t ‘Wike’ have his way if he was so powerful?
Wike didn’t singlehandedly bring Sheriff to chair PDP - he was the most vocal among those who brought Sheriff in.
On the day of the convention in fact, most Northern Leaders in PDP walked out on the party when they discovered that Sheriff wasn’t going to be confirmed.
Once Sheriff walked out, it was up to Uche Secondus to play the role of Ag. Chairman and postpone the convention, leaving the party under Sen. Ahmed Makarfi as Caretaker Chairman.
Was it Wike that nominated Makarfi? Or even the SS Rep on the CTC, Sen. Odion Ugbesia?
The next convention was to be held in PHC and the Govs were mostly backing Jimi Agbaje but that convention was botched with state security forces pursuing us all away - the position was reserved for JK, not particularly the SW.
After this though, SW started claiming zoning.
Worth emphasising: JK was chosen to be chairman at that time, then the position was reserved (sort of zoned) for SW mainly to favour JK.
But others soon began to show up for the same seat - which was open to the entire South - and Secondus backed by Wike began to push.
What people ignore about Secondus is that apart from the role he had played at the convention where Sheriff was dethroned, he had been National Organising Secretary From 2008 till 2012 then Deputy Chairman from 2013 - he had strong structures of his own within the party.
It’s convenient to lazily say ‘Wike imposed Secondus’ but truth is: SW was badly divided and Secondus capitalised on the division by uniting SS and SE and pulling in strong support from key Northern Leaders in the PDP.
If anyone can rightly be called Mr. PDP, it’ll be Secondus.
Wike is a politician though and if you say he installed Secondus, he won’t deny it - but Secondus could never have become PDP chair unless key power-bases agreed to have him and he can’t even be chairing successfully unless their buy-in is still there, PDP is simply too big.
Can Wike now impose Tambuwal on PDP? No.
Can he support Tambuwal? Of course.
Can Tambuwal win the PDP ticket? Yes.
How can Tambuwal win? Only by getting the support of PDP power-bases including but not limited to Gov. Wike.
If Tambuwal emerges, it means everyone backed him.
But Tambuwal isn’t Secondus and doesn’t have the personal structures Secondus had in PDP before he won the chairmanship.
From Friday, there will be horse-trading at #PDPConventionPHC and if Tambuwal or anyone else among the 13 presidential aspirants seals enough deals, he wins.
What I suspect is going on is that certain aspirants are fuelling this “superman Wike” matter to make Wike back off supporting anyone - but Wike is just one man who has his own choices and preferences.
PDP is bigger than one power-base, even The Generals have a stake in it.
Jerry Useni’s emergence as PDP gubernatorial candidate in Plateau is not random, it’s one of those deals of power-mongering and harmonised interests.
PDP is not a party that is hypocritical - anything we are is what we are and there’s no pretence here - it’s a power alliance.
To assume that Wike will singlehandedly determine who becomes PDP presidential candidate is a foolish assumption.
If his preferred candidate emerges, it’ll be because the majority of stakeholders are backing him, not because Wike said so.
And Wike is hedging his bets too.
Anyone who thinks Tambuwal is the only Wike-friendly aspirant in the PDP race is grossly mistaken.
Nobody knows who will emerge as PDP flagbearer but many of us know who and who will not emerge, no matter how popular on the outside they might be.
And oh, that statement Wike made recklessly, he apologised to the NEC and all presidential aspirants during the week.
PDP is not a party where any single person determines what happens - even Obasanjo had Anenih, Bode George, Andy Uba, Ahmadu Ali etc holding things down for him.
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I should say this to all Igbos whom I feel have been forced by historical and recent events to take a position of “We don’t care about Power” in their own country:
If Power in any Nation is not something some parts of that Nation can aspire to, then it’s not a true Nation.
So we just did this and my argument for an Igbo running mate for Atiku hinges on three things: Strategy, Reward to Achieve Higher Performance and Nationalism.
Let me start from the last: PDP cannot successfully claim to be a Nationalist party if SE doesn’t get VP - simple.
On strategy - we had 3 main thrusts from 2015 when PDP lost: a) Expose APC for failure b) Choose a Fulani Candidate to challenge Buhari in his base and c) Choose an Igbo running mate to turn out higher numbers than 2015 from the SE, like it did in 2011.
We’ve done a,b; now do c.
After Kano results came in and PDP lost woefully, I looked at 2011 figures and still felt confident that PDP would win.
If the SE had given us same figures in 2015 as it had in 2011, GEJ would have won in 2015.
PDP will win SE - I agree.
But will PDP win SE massively? Not sure.
I think the current crop of political leaders across Nigeria have failed to learn one crucial lesson about Relevance, Influence and Rest - which many in our generation also don’t understand.
For me, it is what Uncle Bola Ige aptly described as the “Siddon Look Movement”.
Siddon Look basically is a posture of political inactivity or passive political participation rather than pushing yourself into the fray in order not to lose relevance.
Ige took this position in reaction to the IBB regime Third Republic and it was effective for his politics.
Many politicians, jittery of losing their political base participated in the Third Republic until it was scuttled.
Again during the ill-fated Abacha transition, Ige still didn’t participate until that also ended - yet by 1999, Ige and his party retained their power bases.
As I was saying about the permutations that won the victory today...
Before Tambuwal came into the venue last night, an indistinguishable man was announced and I knew immediately that The Generals had decided and he was here to oversee.
In 1999, Atiku was presiding over a PDM meeting to endorse Ekwueme as PDP presidential flagbearer when Gusau came and informed him that Obasanjo was the preferred candidate of The Generals.
Atiku postponed that meeting for two days and when they reconvened, dynamics had changed.
A debt was paid last night with the change in permutations but Otta is not a power base that shifts easily.
It took a call from the West to shift the stand of Otta, where the god that resides there had as far back as 3 months ago vowed to support whoever emerged from PDP.
Was mildly surprised last night to see that the APC was also holding a convention from which the only positive I see is that someone isn’t totally lifeless but merely sleeping at one of the most important events of his life.
The permutations involved the horse-trading between aspirants, the concessions made in delegates, political deals and also rumours from online about Cash - which I saw none of personally, know no one who saw but I am certain happened as always in politics.