Pete North Profile picture
Oct 2, 2018 10 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1. For the benefit of the hard of thinking and for possibly the billionth time, there is only ONE way to ensure the UK maintains its current trade with the EU and that is by joining Efta and retaining the EEA agreement. (#Brexit thread)
2.There are means to ensure the bare minimum essentials continue but the EU is a major market actually on our doorstep so there is no way we should even be considering options that only maintain the bare minimum. The UK as a matter of fact needs a fully comprehensive relationship
3. As pointed out by the European Commission, a customs union covers only those functions listed in red and is not EVEN required to address those issues. The majority of border concerns are regulatory issues covered by the EEA.
4. A more basic agreement would only cover point to point transactions but would eliminate the huge services markets we enjoy which can never be replaced by an FTA or substituted with trade further afield.
5. All of the alternatives to the EEA mean bolt ons to an FTA and the only way the EU is ever going to allow frictionless trade is by adopting the rules verbatim under ECJ direct applicability UNLESS we are in Efta. It will not budge on this even a bit.
6. Being that the EEA is an adaptive framework with obligations to eliminate customs formalities there is every reason to believe that once we are in the EEA we can design a UK specific protocol that eliminates the need for as customs union - much along the lines of Norway.
7. We would adopt the Union Customs Code and that should be a basis for eliminating the remaining checks most of which can be handled with behind the border auditing. Existing checks in Norway are mainly for contraband and declarations which could be electronic.
8. As to the downsides, there are a few but we are out of time. They said we could get a better deal than Norway but now it looks like no deal oblivion or a miserable vassal state version of an FTA. For all that the ERG have pissed around and whined they do not have a better plan
9. They've had all the time in the world to come up with something credible that can be accepted by the EU yet all we see is the same recycled errors they've been pushing from the beginning. They have no right to be taken seriously and they have missed their window.
10. If we are pragmatic and sensible about it, the EEA solves most of the problems and ensures we can leave without trashing the economy and and ensuring we can mitigate the worst impacts on Brexit day. The time has come to choose and the EEA is the only game in town.

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More from @PeteNorth303

Oct 5, 2018
1. Today in #Brexit tedium: You all saw the Barnier tweet reiterating that a Canada+++ is available and has been from the beginning. The ultra brexiters have taken that to mean an FTA plus whatever fiction they want tacked on to it.
2. They are dishonestly claiming this as a vindication of their position, conveniently ignoring that the EU will not agree to begin talks on any such agreement unless the UK signs up to an NI backstop. The EU is entirely consistent on this.
3. The ultas claim that a Canada+++ deal where they get to define what the plusses mean means that we don't need a backstop, Two problems here. The EU won;t agree to it and secondly, the details of their proposal has the same basic flaw as Chequers which the EU already declined.
Read 20 tweets
Oct 3, 2018
1. It is not conspiratorial to say that both Johnson and Rees-Mogg are front men for a very narrow set of interests. they are relying entirely on the IEA think tank set for ideas - which sees #Brexit only in terms of how their financial backers can advance their interests.
2. I have never heard JRM or Johnson give a detailed and convincing anti-EU speech. They know how to drop in buzzwords and eurosceptic terminology but they have stolen the clothes of anti-EU scholars who used to make up the eurosceptic movement.
3. Very skilfully they have cleaved euroscepticism away from Ukip which has freed itself to concentrating on grunting about Muslims. Most of the founders have either gravitated to the Tory fringes or bowed out completely.
Read 20 tweets
Oct 3, 2018
1. All the solutions to the various technical #Brexit concerns are to an extent sub-optimal, complicated and require a degree of compromise. Tories, though, would rather queue up round the block to be told life is simpler than it is.

2. Anyone can blether about sovereignty and self-determination but in the real world, regulation and rules are the WD40 of trade and without agreed norms trade simply doesn't happen. All trade agreements to one extend or other place constraints on sovereignty.
3. Brexit requires of us that we seek a balance between isolationism and subordination but since the EU is the regional and global regulatory superpower in this equation, to a larger extent it will call the shots. This is a simple fact of life. They are bigger than us.
Read 14 tweets
Oct 2, 2018
1. So if reports are correct it looks like Mrs May is going to go with a customs union as her next move along with those rules necessary to keep the trucks rolling. No doubt this is going to upset the #Brexit Taliban. (thread)
2. As ever she's got it ass backwards where the the differences then between NI and mainland will be more profound than if we'd stayed in the EEA and ditched the customs union. This is what happens when you equate customs controls with customs unions.
3. So the plan, if we can call it a plan is a Turkey Plus sort of arrangement - or maybe the Jersey Option. Whatever ti is, it certainly is turkey - but it's bordering on workable which is closer than we've been before. It will probably fall over on the details.
Read 19 tweets
Sep 29, 2018
1. Time of a thread on this Toryboy dribble. The problem with a #Brexit FTA+++ ("with maximum recognition") is that the EU does not do mutual recognition where it has already has harmonised rules. it is never going to agree to an equivalence system. ...
2. Put simply if we go for an FTA+++ then the EU gets to decide the terms of those plusses. It can can look at maximum facilitation for revenue issues in relation to VAT and tariffs and technology can help but that pertains only to the customs union. The bits in red.
3. As you can see it doesn't even begin to address the issue of regulatory controls and though the EU does do MRAs on conformity assessment, they are never universal and only if there are exactly matched standards. The belief we can unilateral diverge is a fantasy.
Read 18 tweets
Sep 29, 2018
1. I very rarely say something is a must read because very little is, but the new report "Power, Platforms and The Free Trade Delusion" from @UNCTAD is essential to understanding political trends in the wake of hyperglobalisation. (thread)…
2. Essentially globalisation has created the conditions for corporates to tilt markets in their favour and evade tax. It argues that the loss of legitimate revenue along with rent seeking is a driver of inequality and exacerbated by e-commerce.
3. The report in places gets quite technical and if you are at all normal your eyes will glaze over some of it but it is worth a skim read at the very least. Interestingly it talks about increased markups, ballooning profits and a decline in wages. Globalisation exacerbates this.
Read 15 tweets

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