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Editor @LeaveHQ - The Leave Alliance - #Brexit
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Oct 5, 2018 20 tweets 4 min read
1. Today in #Brexit tedium: You all saw the Barnier tweet reiterating that a Canada+++ is available and has been from the beginning. The ultra brexiters have taken that to mean an FTA plus whatever fiction they want tacked on to it. 2. They are dishonestly claiming this as a vindication of their position, conveniently ignoring that the EU will not agree to begin talks on any such agreement unless the UK signs up to an NI backstop. The EU is entirely consistent on this.
Oct 3, 2018 20 tweets 4 min read
1. It is not conspiratorial to say that both Johnson and Rees-Mogg are front men for a very narrow set of interests. they are relying entirely on the IEA think tank set for ideas - which sees #Brexit only in terms of how their financial backers can advance their interests. 2. I have never heard JRM or Johnson give a detailed and convincing anti-EU speech. They know how to drop in buzzwords and eurosceptic terminology but they have stolen the clothes of anti-EU scholars who used to make up the eurosceptic movement.
Oct 3, 2018 14 tweets 3 min read
1. All the solutions to the various technical #Brexit concerns are to an extent sub-optimal, complicated and require a degree of compromise. Tories, though, would rather queue up round the block to be told life is simpler than it is.

#CPC18 2. Anyone can blether about sovereignty and self-determination but in the real world, regulation and rules are the WD40 of trade and without agreed norms trade simply doesn't happen. All trade agreements to one extend or other place constraints on sovereignty.
Oct 2, 2018 10 tweets 3 min read
1. For the benefit of the hard of thinking and for possibly the billionth time, there is only ONE way to ensure the UK maintains its current trade with the EU and that is by joining Efta and retaining the EEA agreement. (#Brexit thread) 2.There are means to ensure the bare minimum essentials continue but the EU is a major market actually on our doorstep so there is no way we should even be considering options that only maintain the bare minimum. The UK as a matter of fact needs a fully comprehensive relationship
Oct 2, 2018 19 tweets 4 min read
1. So if reports are correct it looks like Mrs May is going to go with a customs union as her next move along with those rules necessary to keep the trucks rolling. No doubt this is going to upset the #Brexit Taliban. (thread) 2. As ever she's got it ass backwards where the the differences then between NI and mainland will be more profound than if we'd stayed in the EEA and ditched the customs union. This is what happens when you equate customs controls with customs unions.
Sep 29, 2018 18 tweets 4 min read
1. Time of a thread on this Toryboy dribble. The problem with a #Brexit FTA+++ ("with maximum recognition") is that the EU does not do mutual recognition where it has already has harmonised rules. it is never going to agree to an equivalence system. ... 2. Put simply if we go for an FTA+++ then the EU gets to decide the terms of those plusses. It can can look at maximum facilitation for revenue issues in relation to VAT and tariffs and technology can help but that pertains only to the customs union. The bits in red.
Sep 29, 2018 15 tweets 4 min read
1. I very rarely say something is a must read because very little is, but the new report "Power, Platforms and The Free Trade Delusion" from @UNCTAD is essential to understanding political trends in the wake of hyperglobalisation. (thread)

unctad.org/en/Publication… 2. Essentially globalisation has created the conditions for corporates to tilt markets in their favour and evade tax. It argues that the loss of legitimate revenue along with rent seeking is a driver of inequality and exacerbated by e-commerce.
Sep 29, 2018 24 tweets 5 min read
1. This is only speculation but it is my belief that the USA will not allow the WTO to fold, but they will frustrate it and keep it on life support for as long as it exists for tactical reasons - and it has a lot to do with the EU. (#Brexit thread) 2. The EU puts on a front as a good global citizen, incorporating WTO conventions verbatim into the DNA of its trade agreements. There is a convergence as the EU rightly sees it as a vehicle through which it can expand its influence.
Sep 29, 2018 11 tweets 3 min read
The Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), the Adam Smith Institute, Policy Exchange and the Legatum Institute have all received financial support from US backers via this route. They are corporate lobbyists - not think tanks.

#Brexit

theguardian.com/politics/2018/… 2. They are exploiting a weakness in UK politics in that the parties, so utterly bereft of talent as they are, outsource their thinking to those entities all gussied up to look like part of their tribe. There is no scrutiny not least because MPs are complicit.
Sep 28, 2018 18 tweets 4 min read
1. Instead of credible #Brexit plans, all we are getting is weak triangulation between warring factions with each party trying to reconcile the irreconcilable contradictions within their own movements. Nobody is seriously engaging with reality. 2. The debate is no longer about distinct issues and I honestly don't think Brexiters even care. Hard Brexit is just a banner for the hard right to rally under. They are not interested in what damage it will do. This is purely about taking power.
Sep 25, 2018 18 tweets 4 min read
1. Despite all the noise there is actually very little to say about the Brexit process right now. All that matters is the destination - which right now looks like a crash and burn Brexit simply because our politics does not have the coherence for it to go any other way. 2. Labour has no idea what it wants, it can barely even define the terminology and those in pursuit of a second vote cannot tell us what the question would even be or when it would be held and even if it could be executed in time (which it can't).
Sep 20, 2018 8 tweets 2 min read
1. There has been a subtle change in tone from the #Brexit ultras over the last week or so - moving on from their enthusiasm for a no-deal Brexit to a supposedly more measured Canada FTA approach. This is a deceitful cop out. 2. As we all know by now (unless you're a thick as mince Tory MP) an FTA means we are still subject to standard third country customs controls and does not in any way solve any of the regulatory issues identified in the EU notices to stakeholders.
Sep 18, 2018 18 tweets 4 min read
1. So "US-UK Brexit" is trending. The CATO/IEA/ASI proposal for a UK-US FTA. A few thoughts (#Brexit thread)

object.cato.org/sites/cato.org… 2. The reaction to it is largely based on a single Guardian article which ignites all the usual histrionics about hormone beef, chlorinated chicken and privatisation of the NHS. This is reactionary and a sign that they haven;t actually read it. It's still bad though...
Sep 18, 2018 24 tweets 5 min read
1. The now infamous Copyright Directive is a solid example of why we should leave the EU. Not of itself as some suggest but it gives us an insight into how the rest of the EU functions. (#Brexit thread) 2. The legislation, like most EU law is the product of corporate lobbying but when it comes out the other side we get an appalling piece of law - a sledge hammer to miss the nut - one which will place substantial costs on content producers. Only the biggies can afford to comply.
Sep 17, 2018 9 tweets 2 min read
If this had the slightest chance of working and were it grounded in reality I would be backing Mrs May all the way - but it's basically a set up to make the EU look bad by demanding the impossible and dressing it up as a reasonable offer. It's a decoy. 2. This feels like there isn't even an honest attempt to engage in the details not least because she is lying about the EEA option and Norway requiring a customs union. She is taking us for fools. She can only get what she wants by staying in EEA but repeats the lies about it.
Sep 12, 2018 10 tweets 2 min read
1. The ERG have proven adept at making noise but they don't seem to be able to grasp policy. They get shot down every time they put their heads above the parapet and they have not been able to produce a credible alternative to chequers. #Brexit thread... 2. With philandering Johnson having blown his window of opportunity and the ERG seemingly backing down it looks like May will survive until Brexit day. That, though, does not change the fact that Chequers is a non-starter.
Sep 10, 2018 10 tweets 2 min read
1. So today it looks like #Brexit has gone on the back-burner for the Tories. They have now entered a full blown civil war where Brexit is the proxy issue but the row is more to do with who will lead them into the next election. That's all that matters to them. 2. Brexit may be the theme, but this isn't about which plan wins out because everyone knows Chequers will not work. The ERG faction just maintain the pantomime that it is a serious proposition because the average Tory voter (not by accident) thinks it is a plan in play.
Sep 6, 2018 10 tweets 2 min read
1. So is Chequers dead or not? There are mixed messages. Barnier has rejected core elements of it but we have not yet seen an outright rejection in name. So what's going on with #Brexit? Thread... 2. It is the Leave Alliance's view that Brussels has given up any hope of a sensible proposal from the UK and is just treading water, buying time to prepare for no deal. It is likely that Raab is doing the same.
Sep 5, 2018 13 tweets 3 min read
1. According to City AM, David Davis is being lined up to author a foreword to a 140-page "Alternative #Brexit Plan", due to be published later this month and which will make the case for a Canada-style trade deal, with improved provisions on areas such as services and security. 2. The comprehensive proposal is being coordinated by "trade expert" Shanker Singham of the Institute of Economic Affairs, in collaboration with at least one other think tank and a leading City law firm.
Sep 4, 2018 21 tweets 4 min read
1. The Twitter remain movement really doesn't have any self awareness. Even filtering out the snobs, bigots and crazies, they still haven't grasped #Brexit at all. (thread) 2. For all that they have shown an impressive ability to build self-referential echo chambers, mobilising enormous Twitter followings, having spend millions in the process, if the polls are anything to go by they haven't actually achieved anything.
Sep 4, 2018 16 tweets 4 min read
1. There's a subtle shift in tone from the ultras this morning who are now pushing for a Canada+ agreement. That + is going to have to do a lot of work because we'd still be subject to third country controls thus having a similarly damaging effect to no deal #Brexit. 2. Again the Brexiters are ducking the issue that to have frictionless trade you need full regulatory harmonisation. If we don't have that then Mrs May will have to sign the NI backstop. Chequers is an attempt to fudge this question but it is at least a nod to reality.