As I was saying about the permutations that won the victory today...
Before Tambuwal came into the venue last night, an indistinguishable man was announced and I knew immediately that The Generals had decided and he was here to oversee.
In 1999, Atiku was presiding over a PDM meeting to endorse Ekwueme as PDP presidential flagbearer when Gusau came and informed him that Obasanjo was the preferred candidate of The Generals.
Atiku postponed that meeting for two days and when they reconvened, dynamics had changed.
A debt was paid last night with the change in permutations but Otta is not a power base that shifts easily.
It took a call from the West to shift the stand of Otta, where the god that resides there had as far back as 3 months ago vowed to support whoever emerged from PDP.
The route to victory in Nigeria (as elsewhere) revolves around many things - international subtle hints, the military base I call The Generals, the political class and most importantly with this phase - party delegates.
Atiku is on course to become Nigeria’s next President.
As Democracy evolves in Nigeria, the will of the people is becoming most paramount and with #PDPConventionPHC - Atiku did his homework, he did the legwork and he preached two most convincing messages - Restructuring and a Single-Term Tenure.
Fidelity to these is very crucial.
Being Nigeria’s next President may be an attractive prospect but the Next President also has to be the Best President in order to reverse the effects of the Worst President.
Atiku still has a distance to go but he wouldn’t be walking alone from now:
The PDP will walk with him.
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I should say this to all Igbos whom I feel have been forced by historical and recent events to take a position of “We don’t care about Power” in their own country:
If Power in any Nation is not something some parts of that Nation can aspire to, then it’s not a true Nation.
So we just did this and my argument for an Igbo running mate for Atiku hinges on three things: Strategy, Reward to Achieve Higher Performance and Nationalism.
Let me start from the last: PDP cannot successfully claim to be a Nationalist party if SE doesn’t get VP - simple.
On strategy - we had 3 main thrusts from 2015 when PDP lost: a) Expose APC for failure b) Choose a Fulani Candidate to challenge Buhari in his base and c) Choose an Igbo running mate to turn out higher numbers than 2015 from the SE, like it did in 2011.
We’ve done a,b; now do c.
After Kano results came in and PDP lost woefully, I looked at 2011 figures and still felt confident that PDP would win.
If the SE had given us same figures in 2015 as it had in 2011, GEJ would have won in 2015.
PDP will win SE - I agree.
But will PDP win SE massively? Not sure.
I think the current crop of political leaders across Nigeria have failed to learn one crucial lesson about Relevance, Influence and Rest - which many in our generation also don’t understand.
For me, it is what Uncle Bola Ige aptly described as the “Siddon Look Movement”.
Siddon Look basically is a posture of political inactivity or passive political participation rather than pushing yourself into the fray in order not to lose relevance.
Ige took this position in reaction to the IBB regime Third Republic and it was effective for his politics.
Many politicians, jittery of losing their political base participated in the Third Republic until it was scuttled.
Again during the ill-fated Abacha transition, Ige still didn’t participate until that also ended - yet by 1999, Ige and his party retained their power bases.
Was mildly surprised last night to see that the APC was also holding a convention from which the only positive I see is that someone isn’t totally lifeless but merely sleeping at one of the most important events of his life.
The permutations involved the horse-trading between aspirants, the concessions made in delegates, political deals and also rumours from online about Cash - which I saw none of personally, know no one who saw but I am certain happened as always in politics.
I feel I should say a quick word about my support for Alhaji Sule Lamido.
First of, I don’t arrive at decisions like this lightly and since 2015 - ever before meeting him, I’ve had my eyes on him politically.
And then I looked at the political landscape and also at my PDP.
I believe strongly that PDP lost its soul at some point under Obasanjo and moved far away from what the founding fathers intended.
Out of power, I felt it was a good time to reset and looking at all the founding fathers, only Lamido in my eyes could restore the founding values.
Looking into the polity, I felt PDP needed to strongly divide Buhari’s base - and of all the men in the PDP at that time, only Sule Lamido it seemed to me could break it.
He had a solid record of performance in Jigawa from all the records I saw but it was in 2017 I saw it myself