dearsarah📌 Profile picture
Jul 18, 2015 147 tweets 43 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
New data suggest GOP 2016 nominee will need to win nearly half of Latino vote #lol…
Given voter demographics, campaign coverage feels like a fraud perpetuated by a media, flush with CitizensUnited $ & drunk on T-rump clicks
No matter who wins this election (or even if it never fucking ends), the media is lost.
The theme song of this election is Blur's 'The Drugs don't Work', but with 'drugs' replaced with 'polls'. #WhoTheFuckAnswersThePhonein2016?
Not that the #loligarchy would permit it, but has anyone studied the economics of having every presidential primary on the same day? #enough
Data sabotage could be state sponsored. or corporate. for environmental, human rights or labor data. Or politics. or academic squabbles...
Also does anyone calculate how much more influential the Iowa voter is in nominating each party's candidate than a vote in the other states?
What time does Iowa coverage switch from this is the most important thing ever (thus weeks of 24/7 coverage) to the results mean nothing?
Calling it now: whoever is the Dem nominee wins. But, the biggest loser won't be T-rump or the Reps, it'll be the media & its reputation.
Maybe our clicks were complicit in T-rump, but the media created/profited from this monster-& didn't cover Sandenm0f
Maybe I was naive to expect better of the media re T-rump...or the media was naive...either way, its dishonesty has been disorienting:(
On MSNBC, they claim that something changed since the last poll-& that the debate no-show mattered-but don't question the polls accuracy.
Between no one answering the phone (or having a landline), folks lying when they do (after the 50th call?) & amateur & pro troll polls...
polls have lost any semblance of accuracy. But still sway voters...& more importantly, garner clicks, so, they aren't broken, voters are!
How long till the Republicans (& the helpful neoliberal media) realize crying socialism is redeeming it to votePBIx
Also, is anyone calculating the likely impact of vote suppression (due to dumb voter id laws etc) by state?
Whenever Hillary wears red, I wonder if she's trying to appeal to socialists like me. It does work. But wtf declare victory preemptively?
Seems like a terrible decision-as if the votes don't matter because she is the annointed candidate...& an awful metaphor for her campaign.
So, T-rump can troll the polls, the media, the GOP, & the establishment generally, but, apparently not the voters of the whitest state!
Thats relieving...but as questioning the legitimacy of the polls would further undermine the media's authority, the click charade continues!
Twitter is more accurate than polls; why don't they sell better targeted political ads than the media cos can?
There's so much Citizens United cash. Why should it only keep media cos afloat? Similarly, why not sell data & polls to campaigns?
Maybe Hillary knew she'd won all those coin-tosses when she declared victory? Also did she call heads all 6 times?
Who knew about coin-tossing's role in democracy? Is coin-tossing the modern equivalent of a duel? Why wasn't it deployed in Bush v Gore?
Not close. The polls weren't measuring reality; they were obfuscating it. Just like pretending polls aren't broken..
The more we pretend polls are accurate, the easier it is to troll polls. But the more inaccurate polls become, the less influential they are
New study of voter id laws unsurprisingly shows disproportionate impact on non-white & Democratic voters. (thanks @dadsoup)
Journalism professor asks if journos should stop reporting on (& commissioning)polls.If he did I poll, I'd vote yxIIQ
The Polls don't work-but they employ the journalist-adjacent & give journalists something to talk about #sournalr1r9
Would love to see Twitter & FB's data compared to all the silly polls. Also why aren't they selling political da44F8
yes-but the polls are also beyond broken-& Citizens United has incentivized the media to pretend otherwisYirq
Given their (beyond broken) polls would the media have called Michigan for Hillary already, if she had Bernie's lead?
Americans now trust the media as much (/as little) as they do Congress-& only 6% have a lot of confidence in…FnAV
And how the media ensures they aren't trusted. Also, wish I had a "Fact-Checked" filter to avoid stories…sNjkLxjzwo
If I'm wrong about that 47% (& that women & POC are most people)& T-rump wins we'll prolly have a GOP House, a Dem Senate & a WTF WhiteHouse
So when the media overrepresents white men & ignores most people (aka women & POC), T-rump seems like he couPAm1kNN3
Clinging by a thread to that 47% & my conviction that T-rump cannot win because women & POC are most people, but now reminding myself daily
/that said, since women & POC are most people, we'd also be responsible for T-rump's win as well as his loss..
That, & despite what who the @nytimes employs & quotes might suggest, women & POC are moo/Y7e7N86Q6B
Also why academics think T-rump has a shot? When you are overrepresented everywhere, most people count less..
AKA women & POC are most people. Any "path to victory" for T-rump
That said, I'd sign up to endlessly click on all & any "T-rump can't win" from now until November if it'd stop the torrent of other bs:)
YES-this thread-Dem leaders are mostly white guys but, women & POC are most people-Dems don't need white guy voteJmt2
Are people who 1) answer the phone to a stranger & 2) agree to participate in a poll representative? #pollsdon'twNGk9
Despite whom the media employs & interviews, women & POC are most people/voters. Are women & POC the majority of those polled? #dubious
That, or women & POC are simply most people-& most…XIbHR59I
If only women & POC (who are under-polled) weren't most people & most voters, maybe T-rump would have 2v9Ueh2F
That, or, women & POC are most people, even if we are the least polled & utterly underrepresented in &o/Za0XSl1XrW
Or maybe having an actual campaign wouldn't move the needle because women & POC are just most people & mostTfNtVQuv
Similarly, if you don't consider most people-women & people of color-its mathematically possible for T-rump to wQFVR
So a poll's accuracy now depends on how much your privacy is invaded (& how many gift cards its wor2fvK #loligarchy
this explains everything:…? also will Thiel spring for this lawsuit too?
Seems unlikely voter suppression will be enough to elect T-rump, but will prolly enable the GOP to retain Congress…
similarly, the GOP platform…
This is great--though, as in thread above, I think the polls don't work for a quite few other reasons too:)
Polling at 0 % amongst African-American voters, T-rump details his voter suppression plan. And his plan to ban math
when wonder what qualifies as a "real" poll?Is it still "real" if it overvalues landlines & underPOC?
"Murmurs" indeed. But when the media admits women & POC are most voters,….co/xV2frBRx4P #loligarchy
Maybe someone finally told T-rump that, no matter how high the wall, tunnels & ladders do exik4R2
Sure T-rump has made America hate again, but Orange County is starting to vote Democrat!!!!…?
the party of "stuffy old men" has made its bed... & 22 years after Prop 187, in part thanks to T-rump, .co/LVekrjBYns
Maybe @chrissyteigen & @karliekloss will start a Models against T-rump SuperPac &/or create the best tv ads…nX2YCRbl
For profit, lets pretend women & POC are not most voters & T-rump doesn't need 47% of Latinos to win! #lolZ2QXjRrz
Sure, all of us have #politicalTSD, but overvaluing & overrepresenting white men is how media cos & pollsters make money! #loligarchy
Has there ever been another election where a candidate cannot be presumed to agree with statements released by their campaign? #loligarchy
& T-rump denies his own recorded words but Hillary is responsible for every word ever spoken publicly or privately by anyone she's ever met.
"Deplorable" seems somehow too subtle-how long till T-rump starts selling "Racist" "Xenophobe" & "Misogynist" 🎩s & 👕s?
When'll we find out how Russian hackers trolled online & phone polls?…ISw3?
now the polls don't work. they just make us worse. there'll be no representative sample ever again., #loligarchy
more polls -> more clicks -> more (Citizens United) cash -> more &qttps:// #myClicksareComplicit
Also why polls don't work. Related (& utterly unexamined) these same folk write the polling…dfFzM
"We are suckers for language."

@geo…rWRrB7fFn7 #lqNdFk7uKx0
Also, we'll never know how many women have sued T-rump for sexual assault etc & settled...& are bound by confidentiality agreements.
Of my favorite parts of @FLOTUS's speech: he is not named.…?
we all know who'll win. After 11/9, maybe all of us losers (the media, humanity) can pledge to never mention (or hire) T-rump again?
Tho if we'd just refused to discuss or cover him...& if our clicks weren't complicit, he'd not have been exposO9s7
Why troll polls when its more effective/easier to target specific folks @ the DNC & campaign?Scary how easy this rNKI
More background on Cozy 🐻 , Fancy 🐻 & other adorable sounding 🐻s that do not deserve association with espion6ujj
How Russian bots trolled the polls for T-rump #loligarchy
No candidate has ever driven more registrations or greater voter turnout amongst Latinos than T-rump…
Wow/fascinated by this & all @polbots' work! (& yes of course T-rump has legions more bots than…zDlA8KXN #loligarchy
@polbots have you ever considered studying this? Perhaps in collab with @splcenter?
Beyond landlines & trolls, the polls also don't work because we aren't conducting enough of them anymo4FLC
CA now has 19.4 million registered voters. which is > the total population of 46 statEUf1
Yet CA has no impact on the outcome of the Prez election. Has anyone compared how little our votes count compared to eg Ohioans? #loligarchy
That said, at least T-rump has registered more Latino voters than ever! Just how blue will he turn the map?
If T-rump hadn't ensured record Latinx turnout, would Hillary have chosen yet another white guy as VP?
Perhaps due to their complicity in T-rump's rise, the media adopted a "keep the electorate terrified" as a strategy to ensure high turnout.
Has anyone calculated/estimated the economic cost (for lost efficiency) of keeping the electorate perpetually terrified/making America hate?
Or, given the diversity of CA's population, the relative impact/power of a white, Latino & Black man's vote in CA vs the same in Ohio?
LOL/excellent thread/totally agree

(& glad I didn't chose Iowa when complaining about how little my CA vote counTLXW
If only T-rump only ran an actual campaign, with local offices, organized registration & GOTV efforts...& women & POC weren't most voters...
Or if only the media knew he didn't & that we are most people, would we be so worried? tho, what would turnout jlsp
22 years after Prop 187, a neighboring state's GOP doubles down on the same racism that turned CA permanently blue!
Why would anyone prefer that people who don't(or pretend not to) know something this simple be in charge of anything?
Dear media, We know you knew that women & POC are most voters, but that you benefited by pretending otherwise. Please, don't claim its news!
Perhaps, given their propensity to overvalue & overrepresent white people & men, that the media didn't know. but regardless, its not news
If T-rump doesn't win a single state with more than single digit electoral votes, who do I send my therapy bill to?

(pretty please Texas!)
if Hillary wins Texas, will I retrospectively wonder wtf I spent a year on the brink of nausea about the election?
If the media & polls hadn't undervalued & underrepresented women & PoC, would it even be considered a…o/o/7bSnNjv6Vj
Prediction: the biggest & clearest winners of the 2016 election are lawyeaJWX

Why did I think it'd end today?
Yes, the polls were wrong. Here's why by @MonaChalabi… so let's stop using them?
🎤The polls don't work, they just make things worse🎤
endless polls, but no predictions on the # of votes suppressed by state?

Here's how it went in Wisconsin
Apparently T-rump didn't need 47% of Latinos to win. With record Latino turnout, he got 18% &awysN so much false comfort
I want a thermometer for my confirmation bias.
This'll haunt me. Even if I won't let it become my new 47%
On the plus side, those Orange County predictions did pan out- the county turned blue for the first time since 1936! Orange Curtain no more!
Its hardly surprising that I am better at predicting politics of my state (where I once worked in politics) but its still quite reassuring:)
So, turns out turnout was not abysmal. How many votes were suppressed?
Update on voter suppression in Wisconsin
Russia is undermining elections (everywhere) w/ fake news & propaganda. But the US is not…uqzX #loligarf3QY
Putin's ready to "cooperate," with T-rump. After all, that's who the US elected.With some Russian help,…QiD1nkszZ4
The unavoidable lesson of November is that are many things I must realize. But this is not 1 of them. But thank you.
Is it too dangerous to report on Putin's SV friends/Investments? also are he & Thiel tigX5yp7
How polls are a threat to US democracy by @MonaChalabi… (this, plus, polls make money for all involved. Also trolls)
The only undeniable winners of the 2016 election?

given T-rump's teflon-coating, at least he seems proud of his reputation for litigiousness?
T-rump thanks voter suppression in Wisconsin & Michigan for his victory. Tho he calls it " #loligarchy
T-rump continues to thank Black people for not voting, as election experts tally the votes suppressed in swing states
Facebook's complicity in voter suppression, based on racial & gender…Tgq6 guess they already have their lists
sure it was super basic & easily traceable, but at least it took an entire pack of Russian 🐻s to hack our…ZdA6
How Russians Pay to Play in Other Countries by @NeilMacFarquhar… (any different from #Calexit & Hyperloop in the US?)
That, and, who answers the phone/actually has a landline? And is willing to participate? & how do we untroll…7F2Ez
Could this poll--or this man--be more perfectly named tho?
so the polls don't work, unless I like what they say & they flatter my brethren. then I'll RT thVbqZ
So who're Dugin's Silicon Valley fanboys, friends & co-investors?

Important thread: Russia didn't just influence the US Presidential election-they went after Congressional races too
another important thread on the Putin of it all (maybe T-rump's treason began at birtherism!?!) #loligarchy
The many Russians oligarchs & their many years in business with T-rDn8x #loligarchy
So did Comey confirm these allegations to lawmakers &then defend going after Hillary's…Z8a3NJ
ALLCAPS make better dog whistles!

And from such a credible source!

Also, many RTs & Likes are bots & how many are in the US &o/iwZx5ByrJ1
Putin's team trolls & bots (& Macedonian teens?) are shifting their focus from T-rump to…hJPDmSSR #loligarchy
How bout a moratorium on polls? Even for just a week? #loligarchy
21 years after Prop 187, for the 1st time in 80 years, the OC turned blue. And, now, ICE raids? Bye Dana! Bye Daryl!
Putin's Fancy 🐻s are it again, not just mucking with French elections, but also in Germany. (UK next?) #loligarchy
Was it just Voter ID that suppressed 200k votes in Wisconsin? Maybe Putin & Facebook deserve some of the credit tLk2S
Merkel & the Fancy Bear

(a reconstruction of a multi-year intelligence…4Lvw
In WI, Voter ID laws fulfilled the GOP's goals of suppressing votes &…xfyt
Voter suppression rigged the election.…
How Dutch intel wrangled Fancy 🐻 & Cozy beJkOQ while the 🇺🇸 continued to 🙈🙉🙊. Our incompetence—& inability to respond—is staggering. #loligarchy

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More from @dearsarah

Feb 2, 2018
@katiezavadski “F---ing Sith Lord,” “Horrific Leakers,” & “Berserkazoid Craziness”: The Mooch Recalls His Brief Shining Fortnight at the Center of US Politics, by @WilliamCohan… Wish he’d been asked about🇷🇺sanctions, RDIF & if he now supports what he opposed at #WEF17?
This is something, coming from a guy who missed the birth of his child—& had his lawyer demand a paternity test?

Does suing CNN & forcing a journo to resign for accurate reporting have permanent benefits?
World chess body has Swiss bank accounts frozen after (Putin-linked) president is accused of links to ISIS oil deals… After @Kasparov63 failed to have him removed, maybe Team Spectre decided enough was enough—& this was the only way to take back the org?
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As per ⬆️, an excellent post by @katiezavadski, examining RDIF & Dmietiev! And a great thread follows. Hope to see Scaramucci, Thiel & Goldman Sachs looped in, just in time for Davos!
@katiezavadski So T-rump, Scaramucci & Mnuchin are going to #WEF2018. What about Schwarzman, Bonderman, Black & or WEF Young Global Leaders Dmietriev & Thiel? Or Milner? Is there an RDIF reunion scheduled?

Also, out of curiousity, any chess tourneys or events scheduled?
@katiezavadski Wonder if Scaramucci can get another reporter canned for accurately reporting on what he said in public at #WEF, like he did last year? Or were his legal threats to CNN enough to prevent anyone from taking the risk? Are the Mooch & Thiel now press-proof?
Read 24 tweets
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Thinking a lot lately about the VIPization of American culture & how its displaced the notion of equality. Curious about when this started..
I'd like to read a history of VIP sections:)When did they become mainstream/acceptable/legitimate? How are they justified to kids?Any recs?
By legitimizing VIP sections, the #loligarchy has commoditized inequality & aspiration & even my hypocrisy;) Can't we do & build better?
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So, some dude in Bristol Farms just asked me if I was in #HatefulEight - his wife thought I was Jennifer Jason Leigh! #flattered #yearmade 💗
I clicked on this because I am vain, but loved this interview with Jennifer Jason Leigh…
just remembered: years ago, in Thailand, a couple said they thought they recognized me from the movie SingleWhiteFemale.Was I Bridget Fonda?
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Why is O'Malley still running? There is no way a white man will be either Hillary's (Castro) or Bernie's (Warren?) choice for VP. #DemDebate
"You'll be very happy...I'll let you talk then" #shhhO'Malley
I still wouldn't recognize O'Malley if I saw him in the supermarket. #DemDebate
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Dec 16, 2015
yes...which is why the OpenAI team's lack of diversity is so discomfiting....
Long @NewYorker profile on Bostrom & the state of AI; not a single woman (unnamed wife aside) mentioned or quoteILtp
If OpenAI is not committed to offering open access to their data, is the "Open" just sqLi4KSCoJ
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