EHSANI2 Profile picture
Oct 24, 2017 22 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1-Trip starts w standard car ride from Beirut to #Damascus. Capital feels v safe. During dinner, sound of artillery. No one flinches but me
2-Next day is spent with friends. Conversations ranged from discussing the #Syrian war to discussing the Syrian war.
3-Ride to #Aleppo is planned for 7:30 am start. I Am reminded that the old Damascus/Aleppo highway is only operable up to Homs
4-I request that we pass through city of Homs rather than follow highway around it. Wish I didn’t. Nothing prepares your eyes or stomach
5-Main street running through #Homs feels like Ghost town with so much destruction. We pass by square that saw bulk of early demonstrations
6-Soon upon leaving #Homs, old highway is blocked as we approach Talbiseh & Rastan. Cars must now make a right turn into Eastern #Syria
7-Without this Road that leads all the way to Raqqa, Aleppo would have been lost to the Opp. Arguably, this 1 road may have settled this war
8-Size of #Syria becomes evident as you travel on what seems like an endless desert East. #ISIS had made this road its home for years
9-It was Tiger forces who took back what was this military road and used it to as the artery that would later help break siege of #Aleppo
10-Even today, few dare travel on it after sunset. The road is still dangerous even for those who lived through the whole war
11-Finally, we reach Sfireh/Khanaser where we turn left away from Raqqa & towards Aleppo. Road is busy with Trucks carrying supplies
12-Road still seems endless but we are now finally on outskirts of #Aleppo approaching city center from the airport’s direction
13-Before the war, hardly any #Aleppo residents had travelled through this area. They all grew with the old Damascus-Aleppo highway west
14-As we enter the Armenian area of Midan, the destruction hits you in the stomach. Kurdish flags are seen right across from SAA checkpoint
15-Next morning, childhood friends offer to drive me through whole city. We enter neighborhoods where few civilians have gone before.
16-NOTHING prepares you for what see in four straight hours of driving. We pass by my old primary school in old city. It doesn’t exist. Gone
17-Through next 3 days, it’s an emotional roller coaster. Optimism about the future followed by extreme pessimism and back to circle again
18-Friends & family who stayed through the war think of #Aleppo now as #Geneva when they compare it to 2012-2016 period that they call hell
19-Bulk of the destruction is undoubtedly in Eastern part whose citizens had supposedly long left to either #Turkey or other parts of city
20-How does it play out? Will reconstruction start anytime soon? Most Residents are optimistic. Feels more like hope than anything tangible
21-Most widely discussed subject was however not reconstruction but the military draft and the chance to be called into reserves.
22-People are clearly tired of death & blood. They’ve had enough. They want their sons home. They want to start picking up the pieces

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More from @EHSANI22

Sep 18, 2018
Thread on status of Syrian Opposition post the "demilitarized zone" agreement in #Idlib . Thus far, most commentary has regarded the deal as a win for the Opp since risk of imminent strike on the province has been avoided. But is this deal really a positive for opp? Answer: No=>
2-Let's step back first. This is an Opp that was formed with goal of toppling the State (diplomatic language of Geneva process called it political transition). Nothing short of above was acceptable to this opp. As of yesterday, mere avoidance of strikes is now seen as a win
3-Let's not also forget that from early days of Geneva's political transition talks, the only political activity left now is an attempt to establish constitutional committee. All else has been shelved. Now that we established the general status of the opp, let's discuss this deal
Read 7 tweets
Sep 17, 2018
Thread listing Preliminary observations on the announcement of the “Demilitarized Zone” in #Idlib today: What does it mean for Turkey, Russia, Damascus and the armed groups? What is the likely risk/reward calculus for each party? What should we expect going forward? ===>
2– Let’s recap what we seem to know first: A zone 9-12 miles long would be established by Oct. 15. It would contain no heavy weapons or extreme elements of the insurgency (al-Qaeda-linked militants). It would be be patrolled by Turkish and Russian forces
3-First critical point to note is whether this deal will end up securing the highway that passes through Idlib and links the north and south of the country under Govt control together. This was of course one of the strategic aims of Damascus from any #Idlib operation
Read 12 tweets
Sep 17, 2018
For the record, while everyone seems to believe that the number of civilians in #Idlib is close to 3 million, a Damascus source who has been very prescient in the past believes that the actual number may not exceed 1 million.
2-To suggest that 3 Million civilians live in #Idlib is to suggest:

A-That pre-war housing stock & other infrastructure was able to accommodate double the pre-war population

B-Moreover, safe to assume both housing & infrastructure now nowhere near pre-war conditions/capacity
3-In effect, for #Idlib to host 3 Million now compared to 1.2-1.5 pre-war is to assume either a building boom (not war) or construction of massive camps that would host such massive numbers. Yet to see credible images of such camps or investments in the housing stock
Read 6 tweets
Sep 11, 2018
Erdogan in an op-ed in @WSJ :

“Moderate rebels played a key role in Turkey’s fight against terrorists in Northern #Syria; their assistance and guidance will be crucial in Idlib as well”
2-Erdogan: “Preventing the assault on #Idlib need not set back counter-terrorism efforts. Turkey has succeeded in fighting terrorist groups, including ISIS and the PKK, without harming or displacing civilians”

Notice how he doesn’t include Nusra /al-Qaeda in above group
3- Erdogan: “Turkey’s ability to maintain order in Northern #Syria is proof that a responsible approach to counter-terrorism can win hearts and minds”
Read 7 tweets
Sep 9, 2018
In order to truly understand the dynamic inside the #Syrian Armed Opposition, one must start to look into the ever closer marriage between the the Moslem Brotherhood and Nusra / al-Qaeda. Both have been joined at the hip through the sponsorship & support of #Qatar #Turkey ==>
2-Moslem Brotherhood (MB) lost its original military wing during the battle with the Syrian State in the 80’s. Best to think of Nusra/HTS/al-Qaeda in #Syria today as the new military wing of the M Brotherhood. One is the brain, the other represents arms & legs of the same body
3-The coordination between MB & Nusra/HTS/al-Qaeda has afforded the latter the chance to transform itself from non-state actor that had been hiding in the mountains of Afghanistan to an outfit with clear lines of communications to regional capitals that are supporting the MB
Read 16 tweets
Sep 7, 2018
1-Set below is a short thread summarizing some of exchange w this Tajik Muhajir (Foreign Fighter)

Q: How did you come to Bilad al-Sham [Syria]?
A: I heard the Muslims in al-Sham were oppressed. I made hijra [migration] to help them.

SO ALAWIS (THE OPPRESSORS?) ARE NOT MUSLIMS?
Q: All the factions in Syria are oppressors?
A: God knows best. They love money.
Q: So you thought there were jihad and defending Islam, but it's not like that on the ground?
A: Yes. Most of them declare takfir on whoever they like.

PERFECT WINDOW INTO THE FUTURE, THANK YOU
Q: Currently you are not with any faction?
A: No. They are all liars. They say what they do not do.
Q: There are people who say that jihad must continue in Syria. What do you say to these people?
A: If there are no honest factions. With whom [do you wage] jihad?

LIARS? NO WAY
Read 4 tweets

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