Amusing & sad seeing some analysts continue to naively read shady & complex developments through a strictly black/white lens - as if things in the world of jihadism occur along slick, clean lines.
Jabhat al-Nusra (pre-#JFS) was a movement of several ‘wings.’
When Nusra leader #Jolani was presented w. an ultimatum in mid-July 2016 (break from AQ or face 30%+ defection), there then began a furious debate throughout #Nusra’s command structure about the group’s future.
1/10
Within #Nusra’s Shura Council, the subject of moving away from AQ was almost 50:50 - with several of the group’s most senior leaders insisting *no.*
As the debate bled down through Nusra’s regional commands, differing proposals gained weight - like 'Chinese Whispers.'
2/10
For simplicity’s sake, the debate (which lasted only days) created 3 camps:
1) “No, this is illegitimate"
2) “Yes, but maintain ambiguity”
3) “Yes, this is in our best interests”
- As pressure rose to make a decision, 2 & 3 combined for a majority “Yes” vote - for #JFS.
3/10
The context here is crucial:
#Jolani *had* to make a decision - vis-a-vis internal (Nusra) & external (#Syria opposition) dynamics. The rush to conclude made for particularly ambiguous terms for moving ahead w. #JFS. As x1 Nusra official told me:
- “We just had to do it.”
4/10
So did some potential detractors (Camp 1-2) believe #JFS’s formation came with intentional ambiguity? Definitely.
But did other senior leaders believe a ‘break’ was being made? Absolutely.
And did some other senior leaders (Camp 1) vote No & leave #JFS altogether? Yes.
5/10
How do we know all of this? Not from “rebel gossip,” no.
All this has been widely discussed in public by those involved (directly & as ultimatum facilitators). And some have also secondarily verified it privately, with those involved (until this day).
- They seek to enable a meaningful political process, in which there’s an opposition entity to sit at the table. I’d say that is honorable.
@steelejourno#pt: Here, @steelejourno says UK, US, France & "Gulf Arab monarchies” want ceasefires to protect rebels, not civilians.
In #Idlib, nothing could be further from the truth. None of those countries have *any* ties to rebel groups in #Idlib, who only equal ~0.5% of the population.
#Israel says #Syria’s air defense fired “dozens” of anti-aircraft missiles from several batteries across the country over the space of 40-mins… *after* #IAF planes had returned to #Israel.
Fascinating work by @HaidHaid22 - looking at initiatives (or a lack, thereof) by the #SDF & the #FSA to reconcile/rehabilitate/reintegrate #ISIS detainees in northern #Syria.
- Surging strains on the #SDF's makeshift prison network holding 1,000s of #ISIS prisoners, raises risks of eventual #ISIS attacks, aimed at replicating #Iraq’s 2012-3 “Breaking the Walls.”
Here, a @UKLabour MP praises a notorious conspiracist who says meeting Bashar al-#Assad was her "proudest" moment.
She's justified incendiary weapons & barrel bombs on civilian targets; suggested 9/11 was a false flag; Zionists rule #France & the #CharlieHebdo attack was fake.
St. Joseph’s Church in the village al-Quneya - the one cleaned by White Helmets - in west #Idlib suffered substantial damage when it was bombed by #Assad regime forces in April 2013.
So much for being the protector of Christians & #Syria’s minorities.