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Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 Profile picture
@ejmalrai
Feb 6, 2018 • 5 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
The battle of #Afrin #Efrin :
#Turkey is in am impossible position to break through the Kurdish defenders in Afrin city and enclave. Its proxies, including Jihadists, are incapable of occupying and keeping significant position in the Syrian Kurdish enclave +
#Turkey is confronted with only two options:
a. Surround the enclave
b. Push its own forces (several thousands of Turkish Army)
Both options are not feasible +
a. Surrounding the Afrin enclave is not possible because the south of Afrin is open to the Syrian Army line, happy to provide assistance to the Kurds even if the their intentions to declare a Federation and have linked themselves to the US.
Damascus is happy to see #Turkey defeated or incapable of breaking through Afrin. This would reflect on the Turkish Army capability to confront the Syrian Army one day. +
b. Turkey won't push its own forces for fear of high casualties and the total destruction of the enclave (resulting in high civilian casualties). The only remaining option for Turkey is to find someone ready to mediate and to continue shelling the Kurds with no final purpose.

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More from @ejmalrai

Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 Profile picture
Oct 5, 2018
#Iraq: @AdilAbdAlMahdi was given total freedom to select his team in the future government, free from non-qualified individuals and non-corrupted candidates.
Of course, the new PM will have to take into consideration all political parties. These can present names of candidates +
If names are inadequate or considered unsuitable by @AdilAbdAlMahdi, he will ask for more names and again more names until he is satisfied. That was the deal.

The new PM @AdilAbdAlMahdi has reconciled with Nuri al-Maliki a couple of days ago. Al-Maliki was unhappy for his party (Da'wa) to lose the position of PM due to the #USA support to Haidar Abadi following his overt manifestation to "abide by US unilateral sanctions on Iran".
Read 4 tweets
Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 Profile picture
Oct 3, 2018
in #Iraq, for the first time since 2003, the #Shia #Sunni #Kurds and #Turkmen were all divided this time prior to the selection of the Speaker, the President and the Prime Minister.
#USA pushed for its own candidate/coalition (Moqtada-Abadi).

#Iran pushed for the unity of all coalitions, Shia, Sunni and Kurds, in an attempted to unite all & produce leaders accepted by all. Iran also worked to bring down the US candidate/coalition.

The world (including Iraq) didn't realise that "no larger coalition has been nominated".

The reason is simple: Iran wanted to save the face and honor of Moqtada, he who joined a lost coalition, so #Iran Soleimani cam "bring him back" to where he belongs

Read 8 tweets
Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 Profile picture
Sep 24, 2018
#Moscow: S-300 to #Syria in 2 weeks. #Israel will be limited to bombing #Syria from afar, coordinate any flight above #Lebanon and #Syria with #Russia hours before and #Damascus won't hesitate to bring down an #Israeli jet over #Lebanon and Syria.

This is a major blow to #Israel and #USA.

#Syria can also, potentially, bring down any hostile force in the air occupying #Syrian territory.

#Riussia, by delivering the S-300 to #Syria, needs to deliver protection system around it.

#Russia is hitting 2 birds (Israel & US) in 1 stone (S-300 to #Syria).

I don't think this is the only price #Israel will pay for the 15 Russian servicemen killed. More to come.

Adding: #Iran Bavar to #Syria

Israel omnipotence is coming to an end.

Read 4 tweets
Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 Profile picture
Sep 23, 2018
Listen 👂 please:
#Israel can't renounce on violating #Lebanon and #Syria airspace.
#Russia can't just wipe away the murder of 15 servicemen and its own reputation as a superpower
@PutinRF_Eng experience similar situation with #Turkey in 2015
1/+

#Israel has nothing to offer to #Russia and #Moscow has nothing to ask from #TelAviv. Airspace is closed, period.

So Israel will go and cry on Uncle Sam's shoulder: the magnificent @realDonaldTrump #USA
2/+

It is up to @PutinRF_Eng to rebuff #USA and #Israel and hold his ground firmly. I am aware of US lobby within #Russia but it is time to show the world that hegemony is over

#Moscow can ask for itself, for #Syria & substantial compensation for Russian families.

Time to pay 3/
Read 5 tweets
Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 Profile picture
Sep 21, 2018
The discussions and the maps offered by #Israel delegation to #Russia about the downing of the IL-20 was considered unacceptable & offensive by #Moscow. Moreover, the Israeli delegation complained about" #Iran's influence in #Syri, an argument the Russian have rejected.
#Russia also rejected the #Israeli claim that President Putin refused to talk to the Syrian president Assad. Israel propaganda aim to cover the deterioration of the relationship between #Moscow and #TelAviv
Remember what I said: The downing of the Russian IL-20 is all in #Israel disadvantage.

Now Israel is confused and no longer confident in what it is doing in #Syria and how to run its relationship with #Russia and #Turkey (following the Idlib deal).

Read 4 tweets
Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 Profile picture
Sep 19, 2018
Look at the photo: No burning on the white container south of the destroyed factory indicating this is not a warehouse and no ammunition in it.
No whole on the ground and only 4 traces of missiles in the destroyed factory.
Also, look at the building north of the 155m factory destoryed. This indicates that #Israel didn't want to kill workers living in the building (still standing) and targeted the place at night when the factory was closed.
The white container souyth of the destoryed factory indicates that the last of the 4 missiles hit the target at least 70m away from the still standing white container.

This is a spare part gathering factory with no explosives or ammunitions in it.

Read 4 tweets

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