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Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 Profile picture
@ejmalrai
Feb 10, 2018 • 25 tweets • 25 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Missiles launched over #Damascus; Rockets over the Golan Heights and a drone downed over #Israel: all in the last hour.

Israel said it is "an #Iranian drone". If that is the case, it is a "forced reconnaissance" to exhaust the Israeli defence system, #Hezbollah's style.
#Breakingnews:
#Israel F-16 downed by what seems to be #Syria air defence system
#BreakingNews: Private source
All Syrian military and intelligence and their allies (#Hezbollah) positions in #Syria and #Lebanon on full alert
Source:
#Israel recognition of downing an F-16 means Syria is on alert waiting for any Israeli violation, as is #Hezbolah and #Iran.

Would Israel be dragged to war? How #Russia will react in #Syria?

The front is very hot now.

#Israel changing version from "an #Iranian drone" to admit the downing of an F-16 was a first attempt to accuse #Tehran but later had to admit the reality showing a confusion in decision makers in the first hour.
#Syria is used to war as its leadership has been engaged in it fully for the last 6-7 years. Therefore #Damascus's Gov is ready for another front following the liberation of #ISIS last pocket in the north (except the one under #USA control).
Level of escalation in #Damascus response was a warning to #Israel that #TelAviv didn't take onboard. #Israel may limit itself bombing few Syrian positions from afar (flying over #Lebanon) or be dragged into escalation on a front from #Lebanon to #Syria
#Israel can't ignore the downing of its F-16, never happen in the last decades over #Syria and #Lebanon. Therefore what is important is the level of response: will the response bring a retaliation? If so, the long waited war may began.
This is a new Rule of Engagement and a new situation where #Israel is finding itself incapable of dominating the #Syria/n air space. It also shows #Damascus freedom (unlike many analysts believed) to respond regardless what #Russia's position is.
#Syria/n officials believe more than 1 F-16 were hit by its anti-Air missiles, showing the Syrian air-defence capability and the challenging attitude of #Damascus towards #Israel (not accepting the Israeli version of only 1 F-16 downed).
One conclusion:

The Sky over #Syria is no longer an #Israeli/i promenade and the Syrian Army is now ready for another confrontation. This blows up all (ridicules) assessment by analysts that "the Syrian Army stretched..., skinny..., few thousands only...)
#Israel admitted, indirectly, of the efficiency of the #Syrian Air-defence system by saying:"We study a retaliation". The question is and remain: How #Russia will behave? Allow #Israel to hit its Syrian ally and remain on the side? Or stop the escalation?
It is in the disadvantage of #Russia to see another war in #Syria on the southern front, with a #USA intervention, #Hezbollah #Iran the #Palestinians... all that may lead to a general war unless the Israeli response is limited.
#Hezbollah, on full alert in #Syria and #Lebanon, expected the reaction. Its leader Said Hasan Nasrallah warned to open a general war from Naqoura to the Golan Heights in the forthcoming war.
This escalation coincide with the approval of #Lebanon to start its oil exploration in Block 9.
Just a thought:

If this is a #Russian tit-for-tat, we could say that it is #Russia response to the downing of the Russian jet over #Idlib.

Russia accused the #USA of providing anti-air missiles to #AQ allies.
It is likely that #Damascus issues a communiqué to confirm its air defence fired the missiles against the F-16 hitting more than one jet to counter the #Israeli version claiming that #Iran is directly involved in this event.
#BreakingNews:
It seems #Israel warning Sirens blare in Northern #Israel over the Golan, the Galilee and the northern of Israel, closing the airspace over the north of Israel.
#BreakingNews:
A second #Israel/i air bombing against #Syria. #Damnascus open fire again against Israel Jets and Golan Heights positions. Siren over Israel continue. Escalation (for now).
#Breakingnews Source in Syria suggested Shahren anti sir system was used against the F-16, downing the Israeli jet over Israel sir space. The message said the source is : not even your air space is secure from now on
This is the end of it guys: #Israel decided to stand down and de-escalate. #Russia received & Israeli request to mediate to stop the escalation. Israel has lost the first battle against #Damascus when Syria was ready,after eliminating ISIS in central Syria
#Israel F-16 was above al-Sukhnah, east of Palmyra when #Syrian air defence fired 15 missiles against F-16 and to intercepted Israeli missiles fired against the Syrian Army position. This also show that Syria Air Defence is abundantly spread and efficient
#BreakingNews:
Commander in #Syria confirmed to me:
It was not an S-200 that hit the F-16. "It was a prepared ambushed". Read more tomorrow via @AlraiMediaGroup
The downing of an #Israel/i jet is giving a real boost to #Syria Pr. #Assad in the Islamic world among those anti-#USA/anti-Israel. Even if it is one single jet, it is widely believed a defeat of Israel's image and its almighty military power in the ME.
It doesn't mean Israel will stop hitting targets in #Syria but will think twice how to avoid being hit in the sky. Still it can't avoid #Syrian artillery retaliation when Israel violates Syria sovereignty.

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More from @ejmalrai

Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 Profile picture
Oct 5, 2018
#Iraq: @AdilAbdAlMahdi was given total freedom to select his team in the future government, free from non-qualified individuals and non-corrupted candidates.
Of course, the new PM will have to take into consideration all political parties. These can present names of candidates +
If names are inadequate or considered unsuitable by @AdilAbdAlMahdi, he will ask for more names and again more names until he is satisfied. That was the deal.

The new PM @AdilAbdAlMahdi has reconciled with Nuri al-Maliki a couple of days ago. Al-Maliki was unhappy for his party (Da'wa) to lose the position of PM due to the #USA support to Haidar Abadi following his overt manifestation to "abide by US unilateral sanctions on Iran".
Read 4 tweets
Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 Profile picture
Oct 3, 2018
in #Iraq, for the first time since 2003, the #Shia #Sunni #Kurds and #Turkmen were all divided this time prior to the selection of the Speaker, the President and the Prime Minister.
#USA pushed for its own candidate/coalition (Moqtada-Abadi).

#Iran pushed for the unity of all coalitions, Shia, Sunni and Kurds, in an attempted to unite all & produce leaders accepted by all. Iran also worked to bring down the US candidate/coalition.

The world (including Iraq) didn't realise that "no larger coalition has been nominated".

The reason is simple: Iran wanted to save the face and honor of Moqtada, he who joined a lost coalition, so #Iran Soleimani cam "bring him back" to where he belongs

Read 8 tweets
Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 Profile picture
Sep 24, 2018
#Moscow: S-300 to #Syria in 2 weeks. #Israel will be limited to bombing #Syria from afar, coordinate any flight above #Lebanon and #Syria with #Russia hours before and #Damascus won't hesitate to bring down an #Israeli jet over #Lebanon and Syria.

This is a major blow to #Israel and #USA.

#Syria can also, potentially, bring down any hostile force in the air occupying #Syrian territory.

#Riussia, by delivering the S-300 to #Syria, needs to deliver protection system around it.

#Russia is hitting 2 birds (Israel & US) in 1 stone (S-300 to #Syria).

I don't think this is the only price #Israel will pay for the 15 Russian servicemen killed. More to come.

Adding: #Iran Bavar to #Syria

Israel omnipotence is coming to an end.

Read 4 tweets
Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 Profile picture
Sep 23, 2018
Listen 👂 please:
#Israel can't renounce on violating #Lebanon and #Syria airspace.
#Russia can't just wipe away the murder of 15 servicemen and its own reputation as a superpower
@PutinRF_Eng experience similar situation with #Turkey in 2015
1/+

#Israel has nothing to offer to #Russia and #Moscow has nothing to ask from #TelAviv. Airspace is closed, period.

So Israel will go and cry on Uncle Sam's shoulder: the magnificent @realDonaldTrump #USA
2/+

It is up to @PutinRF_Eng to rebuff #USA and #Israel and hold his ground firmly. I am aware of US lobby within #Russia but it is time to show the world that hegemony is over

#Moscow can ask for itself, for #Syria & substantial compensation for Russian families.

Time to pay 3/
Read 5 tweets
Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 Profile picture
Sep 21, 2018
The discussions and the maps offered by #Israel delegation to #Russia about the downing of the IL-20 was considered unacceptable & offensive by #Moscow. Moreover, the Israeli delegation complained about" #Iran's influence in #Syri, an argument the Russian have rejected.
#Russia also rejected the #Israeli claim that President Putin refused to talk to the Syrian president Assad. Israel propaganda aim to cover the deterioration of the relationship between #Moscow and #TelAviv
Remember what I said: The downing of the Russian IL-20 is all in #Israel disadvantage.

Now Israel is confused and no longer confident in what it is doing in #Syria and how to run its relationship with #Russia and #Turkey (following the Idlib deal).

Read 4 tweets
Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 Profile picture
Sep 19, 2018
Look at the photo: No burning on the white container south of the destroyed factory indicating this is not a warehouse and no ammunition in it.
No whole on the ground and only 4 traces of missiles in the destroyed factory.
Also, look at the building north of the 155m factory destoryed. This indicates that #Israel didn't want to kill workers living in the building (still standing) and targeted the place at night when the factory was closed.
The white container souyth of the destoryed factory indicates that the last of the 4 missiles hit the target at least 70m away from the still standing white container.

This is a spare part gathering factory with no explosives or ammunitions in it.

Read 4 tweets

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