Thread by @gelliottmorris

27% in now. Unclear if Lamb can pull this off. He’s running out of votes in Allegheny

Not sure if anyone else is seeing this or my data is messed up, but pretty interesting nugget — seems like Clinton precincts are voting a little worse for Lamb than her, but turning out much more. R precincts going more for Saccone than Trump, but voting far less.

This is a story of turnout

Sure looks blue…

FYI all: my model upload to the google doc broke somehow. trying to get it fixed but want to focus on the turnout estimates now. Will update you all if I can find a solution

Echoing @Nate_Cohn, hard to make a call on an election without live precinct data from Westmoreland county. I’m still going to run the numbers and see if they converge on a result result, but if the models can’t & we have no WML data, no way to call the race.

Still we get a pretty clear signal about the race when 51% is reporting. But so far it’s such a close contest that not having Westmoreland data really sends us back to the dark ages to depend not he AP and CNN.

*does* have some data from Westmoreland, however, so I *do* have a working model. The data just won’t upload to my google sheet. It’s Lamb +2 right now.

no. TORCH WESTMORELAND COUNTY!

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Model is now projecting a Lamb +0.1% victory.

With 72% reporting (including Westmoreland), Lamb vs his benchmark:

Allegheny -2%
Greene -8%
Washington EVEN
Westmoreland -5%

ITS

ALIIIIVEE

Trending toward that Lamb+0.1 estimate

The live model page has been updated and is now presenting data live:

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

87% in in PA-18. Benchmarks update:

Allegheny Lamb up by 0.8
Greene Lamb -4.8
Washington Lamb -1.4
Westmoreland Lamb -3.8

omg

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No model can tell which way this race will go it it’s projection 0.1% Lamb win (look at the confidence interval). You’ll have to wait until I have all data in. Reminder that with @DecisionDeskHQ I am providing live precinct data from Westmoreland county too.

Breaking: I’M CALLING THIS RACE FOR Satan, AKA the Westmoreland county clerk of elections

Forecast Lamb margin is up to 0.2% now and 60% confident that he wins. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Model update: hold onto your butts

#PA18 is not over yet, but every Republican elected official in the country should print this picture and frame it. This chart, showing the drop-off in GOP votes relative to Democratic turnout, is the single biggest issue for them going into November 2018

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In the chat room ready to call this thing. patreon.com/notifications

As of 95% reporting, the worst Conor Lamb could do is lose by 0.9%. That would be a 19 percentage point shift from 2016. So GOP should panic either way.

Who knows recount procedure in PA? @rickhasen

We’re waiting on 16 (SIXTEEN!) precincts now.

Reporting Lamb Margin: +0.5
Projected Lamb Margin: +0.1
Worst Lamb margin: -0.5
Lamb Win Probability: 71%

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

correct

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1200 absentee ballots won’t be counted until tomorrow. If you want to stay up until a call, you’ll be awake a long time

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12 precincts left in #PA18.

Lamb vs county-level benchmarks…

Allegheny
Target: +13%
Now: +14%

Greene
Target: -14%
Now: -17%

Washington
Target: -6%
Now: -6%

Westmoreland
Target: -12%
Now: -15%

Share of votes cast in #PA18 by county (this is why lamb is winning):

Allegheny
Target: 43%
Now: 52%

Greene
Target: 2%
Now: 1.8%

Washington
Target: 22%
Now: 18%

Westmoreland
Target: 33%
Now: 27%

Model is 99.9% sure of a Democratic win in #PA18 not, but (🚨) does not include absentee ballots (🚨). There’s no way to call this race without that data.

thecrosstab.com/2018/03/13/pa-…

oh, that was quick

Absentee ballots just came in from Allegheny county. 800 vote lead for Lamb. I don’t know if there are enough heavy-Trump absentee ballots left in the other counties for Saccone to pull this off.

Reporting: Lamb up by 616 votes
Projection: Lamb up by 342 votes

There are 3 small precincts not yet in my data.

More importantly, Rick Saccone would need to win the remaining ~300 absentee ballots by more than 25 points to win. He only won by 13% in those three counties.

I’m not calling this for Lamb… but.. I don’t see how Saccone wins this (and my models don’t either, FWIW.)

(that’s 3k, not 300, sorry)

#BREAKING: Projection: Dem @ConorLambPA will win the #PA18 House special election by 0.2%. Trump won this seat by 20% in 2016.

Dems have flipped 39 state lege seats since 2016, 1 U.S. Senate seat, and now 1 U.S. House seat. Blue wave seems imminent.

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You can see my model live here:

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Why did Saccone lose? Because R precincts, despite still being pretty R, just did not turn out to vote for him.

SACCONE OF SHAME

FWIW I still give Saccone a 0.4% chance of winning. But Lamb passed the 99.5% threshold so… projection has him up.

Turnout stats & graphs incoming.

Thanks, Adam!

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How did Lamb pull off a (probable) victory in a Trump +20 seat? Dems turned out at 79% of 2016 votes. GOP just 53%. Data:

Lamb votes as % of Clinton total votes:
78.5%

Saccone votes as % of Trump total:
52.5%

Lamb as % of Obama total:
79.4%

Saccone as % of Romney:
55.8%

The people who tweeted “See? No D wave.” after the TX primaries last week are very quiet tonight. Yeah. That’s b/c primaries don’t mean anything. There’s a blue wave coming, that much is clear. What is unclear is if it will be enough (it probably will).

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Lamb call looking like it’ll hold steady

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Here’s how Lamb’s 20.2% swing from Trump’s win in 2016 fits in with the House special elections since 2016

Thanks BenchmarkPol!

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A great race tonight in #PA18. Let me just say that I wasn’t expecting 300 people on my google sheet and 1500 followers when the NYT needle died. Happy that the models went smoothly and grateful to @DecisionDeskHQ for the full precinct results!

Until next time!

Full thread:

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Two things I missed tonight in the flurry or tweets:

This from @donnermaps:

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This from @JMilesColeman:

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I’m going to bed now, y’all.

It’s nights like these that I feel so incredibly blessed to have the best job ever. So very lucky to have been taught by stellar scholars and encouraged by my family & peers to pursue my passion. And thanks to my followers!

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